USD\/CHF, 0,7866\u2019daki 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019y\u0131 ve d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f bayra\u011f\u0131 formasyonunun alt band\u0131n\u0131 test ettikten sonra toparland\u0131. Parite en son seans zirvesine yak\u0131n 0,8127\u2019de, %0,82 art\u0131da; RSI 50\u2019nin \u00fczerinde ve yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc e\u011filim g\u00f6stererek n\u00f6trden yukar\u0131ya bir bias\u2019a i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
0,8135\u2019teki 17 A\u011fustos zirvesinin a\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131, bayra\u011f\u0131n \u00fcst trend \u00e7izgisini g\u00fcndeme getirecek; bunun da k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 halinde odak 0,8200\u2019ye ve ard\u0131ndan y\u0131l\u0131n zirvesi 0,8207\u2019ye d\u00f6ner. Parite 0,8135\u2019i ge\u00e7emez ve 0,8100 alt\u0131nda kapan\u0131\u015f yaparsa, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131da izlenecek seviyeler 0,8084\u2019teki 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA, ard\u0131ndan 30 Temmuz dip seviyesi 0,8049 ve 0,8000 olur. Arka planda CHF, 2011\u20132015 EUR sabitlemesinin sona ermesinden sonra (para birimi %20\u2019den fazla de\u011fer kazanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131) Euro\u2019ya yak\u0131n seyrini koruyor. SNB y\u0131lda d\u00f6rt kez politika belirliyor ve %2\u2019nin alt\u0131nda enflasyonu hedefliyor; at\u0131f yap\u0131lan modeller EUR-CHF korelasyonunu %90\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerinde g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
\u015eu anda USD\/CHF\u2019nin, 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalamas\u0131ndan g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir toparlanma sonras\u0131nda 0,8135\u2019te kritik bir diren\u00e7 seviyesini test etmesini izliyoruz. T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapanlar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda bu seviyenin \u00fczerinde net bir k\u0131r\u0131lma, al\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n kontrol\u00fc ele ald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 teyit eder. Bu diren\u00e7 k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131rsa, 0,8200 seviyesini ve y\u0131l\u0131n zirvesini hedeflemek i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bu y\u00fckseli\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc, son ekonomik verilerle de destekleniyor; \u0130svi\u00e7re\u2019de enflasyon ge\u00e7en ay %1,1 ile d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kald\u0131 ve \u0130svi\u00e7re Merkez Bankas\u0131 (SNB) \u00fczerinde daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrme bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 canl\u0131 tutuyor. Tarihsel olarak, Fed ile SNB aras\u0131ndaki faiz fark\u0131n\u0131n daralmas\u0131 sermayeyi yeniden ABD dolar\u0131na y\u00f6nlendirdi. \u0130svi\u00e7re\u2019nin d\u00f6viz rezervleri yakla\u015f\u0131k 700 milyar CHF civar\u0131nda yatay seyrederken, merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n aktif \u015fekilde m\u00fcdahale edip Frank\u2019\u0131 destekleme motivasyonu da azal\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bununla birlikte, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f bayra\u011f\u0131 formasyonunun \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 ve pariteyi a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekmesi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na da haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmak gerekiyor. Fiyat 0,1835 seviyesini a\u015famaz ve yeniden 0,8100 alt\u0131na inerse, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 \u015fekilde pozisyonunu de\u011fi\u015ftirerek 0,8084\u2019teki 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019y\u0131 hedefleyen sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 almas\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz. Bo\u011fa call spread gibi yap\u0131land\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f stratejiler, bu dar bantlar i\u00e7inde i\u015flem yaparken risklerin y\u00f6netilmesine yard\u0131mc\u0131 olabilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" USD\/CHF 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalamadan tepkiyle 0,8127\u2019de; RSI yukar\u0131. 0,8135 k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131rsa 0,8200-0,8207 hedef. Aksi 0,8100 alt\u0131 0,8084-0,8049-0,8000 riski; opsiyonlarla strateji. CHF-EUR korelasyonu y\u00fcksek, SNB d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck enflasyon.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50005,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52963","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t