USD\/JPY, Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc 159,61 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rerek 159,60\u2019l\u0131 seviyelerde s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kazan\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 korudu. ABD Dolar\u0131, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00e7evresindeki gerilimlere ba\u011fl\u0131 g\u00fcvenli liman talebini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. Hareket, \u201cGreenback\u201din Japon Yeni kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda destekli kalmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7arken; man\u015fetlerde ABD\u2019nin deniz ablukas\u0131 ve su yolunun a\u00e7\u0131k olup olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ile deniz may\u0131nlar\u0131n\u0131n temizlenip temizlenmedi\u011fine ili\u015fkin \u00e7eli\u015fkili iddialar \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n
ABD verileri karma\u015f\u0131k sinyaller verdi. Temmuz ay\u0131 Yap\u0131 Ruhsatlar\u0131 1,443 milyona y\u00fckselirken, Konut Ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7lar\u0131 \u00f6nceki aya k\u0131yasla 1,239 milyona geriledi. Sanayi \u00dcretimi %0,2 artt\u0131; bu, %0,3\u2019l\u00fck beklentinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. Bekleyen Konut Sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 ise %2,3 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; ancak gerileme \u00f6nceki aya g\u00f6re daha s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti.<\/p>\n
D\u00f6rt saatlik periyotta parite, 20 d\u00f6nemlik SMA olan 159,38\u2019in ve 159,55\u2013159,59 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131ndaki destek b\u00f6lgesinin \u00fczerinde kal\u0131rken; 100 d\u00f6nemlik SMA olan 159,69\u2019da ve yak\u0131n\u0131ndaki 159,73 bariyerinde diren\u00e7le kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131. RSI 59,46 seviyesinde bulunurken, hareketli ortalama deste\u011fiyle birlikte 159,43\u2019te ilave a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc seviyelere i\u015faret edildi.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n, USD\/JPY paritesinin son d\u00f6nemdeki bant hareketinin \u00fcst s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131na yak\u0131n 159,60 b\u00f6lgesine do\u011fru kademeli ilerlemesini yak\u0131ndan izlemesini \u00f6neriyoruz. Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki jeopolitik gerilimler, k\u0131sa vadeli Yen g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6lgede b\u0131rakarak Dolar\u2019da g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir g\u00fcvenli liman talebi yarat\u0131yor. Bundan faydalanmak i\u00e7in olas\u0131 bir yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc k\u0131r\u0131lmaya pozisyon almak amac\u0131yla k\u0131sa vadeli USD\/JPY al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n de\u011ferlendirilmesi uygun olabilir.<\/p>\n
Teknik diren\u00e7 159,69\u2013159,73 band\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015f durumda; ancak bu b\u00f6lgenin net bi\u00e7imde a\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131, 160,00 seviyesine do\u011fru h\u0131zl\u0131 bir hareketi tetikleyebilir. Bu yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131, b\u00fcy\u00fck bir getiri fark\u0131yla da destekleniyor: Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n politika faizi %0,25 gibi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerde kal\u0131rken, ABD faiz oranlar\u0131 belirgin bi\u00e7imde daha y\u00fcksek. Tarihsel olarak faiz fark\u0131 bu denli geni\u015f kald\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, Tokyo\u2019nun do\u011frudan d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131na m\u00fcdahalesi olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece Yen\u2019in ayl\u0131k ortalama %2\u2013%3 de\u011fer kaybetti\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda risk y\u00f6netimi i\u00e7in, kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131 159,50 deste\u011finin hemen \u00fczerini hedefleyen bo\u011fa al\u0131m spread\u2019lerinin (bull call spread) kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Parite yatay konsolide olurken prim toplamak amac\u0131yla, 20 d\u00f6nemlik Basit Hareketli Ortalama\u2019n\u0131n (SMA) bulundu\u011fu 159,38\u2019in alt\u0131nda \u201czarar d\u0131\u015f\u0131\u201d (out-of-the-money) sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 da uygulanabilir bir stratejidir. K\u00fcresel gerilimlerin Dolar\u2019daki g\u00fcvenli liman talebini g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bi\u00e7imde desteklemeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesi halinde, bu y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc t\u00fcrev pozisyonlar\u0131n korunmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" USD\/JPY 159,60\u2019ta tutunuyor: H\u00fcrm\u00fcz gerilimi dolar\u0131 g\u00fcvenli limanla desteklerken ABD verileri kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k. Teknikte 159,69-159,73 direnci a\u015f\u0131l\u0131rsa 160,00 hedefi; call ve bull spread \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50081,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52962","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t