ABD\u2019nin uzun vadeli tahvil getirileri yakla\u015f\u0131k yirmi y\u0131l\u0131n zirvesinde; 30 y\u0131ll\u0131k Hazine tahvili %5,3 civar\u0131nda. Buna kar\u015f\u0131n ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY) neredeyse hi\u00e7 tepki vermedi; sadece 0,03 puan y\u00fckselerek 17 piplik g\u00fcn i\u00e7i bant sonras\u0131 99,50\u2019nin hemen \u00fczerinde tutundu. Fiyat hareketi, 99,75 yak\u0131n\u0131ndaki yatay 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA\u2019n\u0131n alt\u0131nda s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Endeksin yap\u0131s\u0131 da ABD\u2019ye \u00f6zg\u00fc faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 etkisini suland\u0131r\u0131yor: Euro %57,6, yen %13,6 a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011fa sahip; b\u00f6ylece sepetin %80\u2019den fazlas\u0131 e\u015fzamanl\u0131 hareketlere a\u00e7\u0131k. Nitekim Japonya 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k getirisi \u00fc\u00e7 on y\u0131l\u0131n zirvesine \u00e7\u0131karken, Almanya 30 y\u0131ll\u0131\u011f\u0131 2011\u2019den bu yana en g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seviyesine, Fransa 30 y\u0131ll\u0131\u011f\u0131 ise 2008\u2019den beri g\u00f6r\u00fclmeyen d\u00fczeylere y\u00fckseldi.<\/p>\n
Kur taraf\u0131ndaki ivme ise daha \u00e7ok, politika beklentilerinin daha az destekleyici hale gelmesinden geliyor. Ko\u015fullu toplant\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131 16 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de faizin sabit kalma ihtimalini %65,4; 28 Ekim\u2019de %52,4 ve 9 Aral\u0131k\u2019ta %33,0 olarak g\u00f6steriyor. Bu, 10 A\u011fustos\u2019taki piyasa fiyatlamas\u0131nda Aral\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n \u201ckesin\u201d g\u00f6r\u00fclmesine k\u0131yasla belirgin bir de\u011fi\u015fime i\u015faret ediyor. \u201cBant alt\u0131\u201d s\u00fctunu 2026\u2019daki t\u00fcm toplant\u0131lar boyunca bo\u015f kal\u0131rken, bu tarafta ilk bask\u0131lar\u0131n 2027\u2019nin olduk\u00e7a ilerleyen d\u00f6nemlerine kadar g\u00f6r\u00fcnmedi\u011fi belirtiliyor. ABD verileri zay\u0131f seyretti: Temmuz konut ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7lar\u0131 1,239 milyon (beklenti 1,35 milyon; \u00f6nceki 1,415 milyon), bekleyen konut sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 %2,3 geriledi (beklenti %0,3 art\u0131\u015f), sanayi \u00fcretimi %0,2 geldi (beklenti %0,3). Empire State endeksi ise 11\u2019e kar\u015f\u0131 20,6 oldu. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki hafta takvimde \u00c7ar\u015famba 18:00 GMT\u2019de FOMC tutanaklar\u0131; ard\u0131ndan i\u015fsizlik maa\u015f\u0131 ba\u015fvurular\u0131 (beklenti 210 bin; \u00f6nceki 209 bin) ve Philadelphia Fed anketi (beklenti 25; \u00f6nceki 41,4) ile \u00f6nc\u00fc A\u011fustos PMI verileri yer al\u0131yor: imalat 53,8\u2019e kar\u015f\u0131 53,9 ve hizmetler 54\u2019e kar\u015f\u0131 54,6. Teknik seviyeler olarak 99,75 diren\u00e7; ard\u0131ndan 100,00 ve 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA\u2019n\u0131n bulundu\u011fu 100,25 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Destekler 99,50; ard\u0131ndan 99,25 ve 98,75. Ge\u00e7ersizle\u015fme, 100,25 \u00fczerinde g\u00fcnl\u00fck kapan\u0131\u015f olarak tan\u0131mlan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
DXY\u2019nin 99,75 seviyesindeki 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00dcssel Hareketli Ortalama\u2019n\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmakta zorlanmas\u0131 nedeniyle endekste a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrmesine haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmal\u0131y\u0131z. Endeks 99,50 \u00e7evresinde 17 piplik dar bir bantta s\u0131k\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015fken, t\u00fcrev piyasa yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 99,25 ve 98,75 desteklerini hedefleyecek \u015fekilde k\u0131sa pozisyonlar olu\u015fturmay\u0131 veya sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonu almay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir. Riski s\u0131k\u0131 y\u00f6netmek i\u00e7in zarar-kes seviyeleri 100,25\u2019teki ge\u00e7ersizle\u015fme seviyesinin hemen \u00fczerine konumland\u0131r\u0131labilir.<\/p>\n
Y\u00fcksek Hazine tahvili getirilerinin dolar\u0131 tipik olarak destekleyici etkisi, k\u00fcresel tahvil getirilerinin e\u015fzamanl\u0131 y\u00fckselmesi nedeniyle zay\u0131fl\u0131yor. \u00d6rne\u011fin Almanya 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k Bund getirisi yeniden %2,6\u2019ya do\u011fru t\u0131rman\u0131rken, Japonya 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k devlet tahvili getirisi %1\u2019in \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karak \u00e7oklu on y\u0131l zirvelerine ula\u015ft\u0131. K\u00fcresel getiriler ABD\u2019nin faiz avantaj\u0131n\u0131 n\u00f6tralize etti\u011finden, dolar\u0131n g\u00f6reli cazibesi s\u00f6n\u00fcmlenmi\u015f durumda.<\/p>\n
Buna ek olarak, ABD ekonomik verilerinde belirgin bir so\u011fuma g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor: konut ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7lar\u0131 1,239 milyona gerilerken sanayi \u00fcretimi %0,2 ile beklentilerin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. Bu zay\u0131fl\u0131k, faiz vadeli i\u015flem piyasas\u0131nda Fed\u2019in 16 Eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faizleri sabit tutma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n %65,4 olarak fiyatlanmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7t\u0131. Dolar ta\u015f\u0131ma primi azal\u0131rken, sat\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n sab\u0131rl\u0131 kalmas\u0131n\u0131 ve pariteyi a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nde zorlamay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesini bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" 20 y\u0131l\u0131n zirvesindeki ABD tahvil faizleri dolar\u0131 u\u00e7urmad\u0131: DXY 99,50\u2019de s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131. K\u00fcresel getiriler ve zay\u0131f veriler Fed beklentilerini a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekiyor; 99,75 a\u015f\u0131lmad\u0131k\u00e7a 99,25-98,75 g\u00fcndemde.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49977,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52960","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t