Aral\u0131k ay\u0131na kadar Fed\u2019in 25 baz puanl\u0131k faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentisi son sekiz g\u00fcnde zay\u0131flarken, Dow Jones Sanayi Endeksi (DJIA) kademeli olarak geriledi: Endeks sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc 53.400 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc; seans i\u00e7inde yakla\u015f\u0131k 105 puan d\u00fc\u015ferken 5 A\u011fustos\u2019taki 54.750\u2019nin hemen alt\u0131ndaki rekor seviyenin yakla\u015f\u0131k %2,5 alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. Ko\u015fullu toplant\u0131 fiyatlamas\u0131 16 Eyl\u00fcl i\u00e7in faizin sabit tutulma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %65,4, 28 Ekim i\u00e7in %52,4 g\u00f6sterirken, 9 Aral\u0131k toplant\u0131s\u0131nda \u201cpas ge\u00e7me\u201d olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %33 seviyesinde; 10 A\u011fustos\u2019ta ise Aral\u0131k toplant\u0131s\u0131nda art\u0131\u015f\u0131n kesin olarak fiyatland\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyordu. S\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma olas\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131 azalmas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131n, 30 y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD tahvil getirisi vade primi y\u00fckseli\u015fiyle %5,3 civar\u0131nda ve Haziran 2007\u2019den bu yana en y\u00fcksek d\u00fczeyinde. Japonya\u2019n\u0131n 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizi \u00fc\u00e7 on y\u0131l\u0131n zirvesinde, Almanya\u2019n\u0131n 30 y\u0131ll\u0131\u011f\u0131 2011\u2019den bu yana en g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seviyelerinde, Fransa\u2019n\u0131n 30 y\u0131ll\u0131\u011f\u0131 ise 2008\u2019den bu yana g\u00f6r\u00fclmeyen d\u00fczeylerde.<\/p>\n\n
ABD konut verileri uzun vade taraf\u0131ndaki bask\u0131ya i\u015faret etti: Temmuz yap\u0131 ruhsatlar\u0131 1,37 milyonluk beklentiye kar\u015f\u0131 1,443 milyon olurken, konut ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7lar\u0131 1,35 milyon beklenti ve 1,415 milyon \u00f6nceki veriye kar\u015f\u0131 1,239 milyon olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Bekleyen konut sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 ise temmuzda beklentideki %0,3 art\u0131\u015fa kar\u015f\u0131n %2,3 geriledi. Home Depot, ikinci \u00e7eyrek k\u00e2r\u0131nda beklenti a\u015f\u0131m\u0131 sonras\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %1 y\u00fckselerek, endeksin seans kayb\u0131n\u0131 fiyat a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131 etkisiyle yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,2 seviyesinde s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131. Emtia taraf\u0131nda petrol, pazartesi g\u00fcnk\u00fc y\u00fckseli\u015fi izleyen ve sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc %1\u2019e yak\u0131n prim yapan hareketin ard\u0131ndan 85 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc; Washington, \u0130ran\u2019la g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fme y\u00fcr\u00fct\u00fclmedi\u011fini ve daha \u00f6nce Umman\u2019a y\u00f6nelik tehdidin ard\u0131ndan deniz ablukas\u0131n\u0131n tam olarak s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Haftan\u0131n takviminde \u00e7ar\u015famba 18:00 GMT\u2019de 28-29 Temmuz toplant\u0131s\u0131na ait FOMC tutanaklar\u0131 yer al\u0131yor; bu toplant\u0131da \u00fc\u00e7 b\u00f6lgesel Fed ba\u015fkan\u0131 25 baz puan konusunda muhalefet \u015ferhi koymu\u015ftu. Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc i\u015fsizlik maa\u015f\u0131 ba\u015fvurular\u0131 (beklenti 210 bin, \u00f6nceki 209 bin) ve Philadelphia Fed endeksi (tahmin 25, 41,4\u2019ten gerileme) izlenecek. Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc ise \u00f6nc\u00fc a\u011fustos PMI verilerinde imalat\u0131n 53,8 (53,9\u2019a kar\u015f\u0131) ve hizmetlerin 54 (54,6\u2019ya kar\u015f\u0131) seviyelerinde gelmesi bekleniyor.<\/p>\n\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda hisse endekslerinde negatif bir e\u011filim benimsemesini, \u00f6zellikle de 54.750\u2019deki son zirvesinin alt\u0131nda zorlanan Dow Jones Sanayi Endeksi\u2019nde k\u0131sa pozisyonlara odaklanmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Endeksin dokuzdan fazla seansta yeni bir zirve yapamamas\u0131 ve 53.400 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rmesiyle, 53.000 destek seviyesine do\u011fru ilave a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 bekliyoruz. 53.250\u2019nin alt\u0131na sark\u0131lmas\u0131 halinde, hisse portf\u00f6ylerinin put opsiyonlar\u0131yla korunmas\u0131n\u0131 ve 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00fcssel hareketli ortalaman\u0131n bulundu\u011fu 52.400 civar\u0131n\u0131n hedeflenmesini \u00f6neririz.<\/p>\n\n
Bu negatif g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn ana itici g\u00fcc\u00fc, getiri e\u011frisinin uzun ucunda 30 y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD tahvil getirisinin yakla\u015f\u0131k %5,3\u2019e s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131. Bu seviye, 2007 finansal krizinden bu yana kal\u0131c\u0131 bi\u00e7imde g\u00f6r\u00fclmeyen d\u00fczeylere i\u015faret ediyor. Artan vade primi, b\u00fcy\u00fcme hisseleri ve nakit ak\u0131\u015f\u0131na duyarl\u0131 varl\u0131klar \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yarat\u0131rken; Almanya ve Fransa gibi \u00fclkelerde de k\u00fcresel tahvil piyasalar\u0131n\u0131n uzun vadeli borcu ta\u015f\u0131mak i\u00e7in daha y\u00fcksek getiri talep etti\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Tahvil piyasas\u0131nda s\u00fcregelen oynakl\u0131\u011fa kar\u015f\u0131, faiz swap\u2019lar\u0131 veya uzun vadeli ABD tahvil ETF\u2019leri \u00fczerindeki opsiyonlar arac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131yla y\u00fckselen vade priminden faydalanacak pozisyonlanma \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
Konut sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde de zay\u0131fl\u0131k g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz: Temmuzda bekleyen konut sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 %2,3 d\u00fc\u015ferken, konut ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7lar\u0131 beklentinin %8\u2019den fazla alt\u0131nda kalarak m\u00fcteahhitlerin yeni projelere ba\u015flamada isteksiz oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n konut geli\u015ftirici hisselerinde k\u0131sa pozisyon d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmesini veya konut sekt\u00f6r\u00fc ETF\u2019lerinde put opsiyonu almas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neririz; zira bu \u015firketler, y\u00fcksek 30 y\u0131ll\u0131k mortgage faizlerinin bask\u0131s\u0131ndan ka\u00e7am\u0131yor. Perakende \u015firket k\u00e2rlar\u0131n\u0131n sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ge\u00e7ici rahatlamaya ra\u011fmen, temel konut verileri t\u00fcketicinin y\u00fcksek bor\u00e7lanma maliyetleri alt\u0131nda zorland\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n\n
Enerji taraf\u0131nda ise Brent veya WTI ham petrolde, fiyatlar 85 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde kal\u0131c\u0131l\u0131k g\u00f6sterirken uzun call opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n ta\u015f\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Jeopolitik gerilimler; \u00f6zellikle H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019nda kesinti riski ve s\u0131k\u0131 deniz ablukas\u0131, sigorta maliyetlerini ve ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131k risklerini art\u0131r\u0131yor. Bu arz y\u00f6nl\u00fc risk, enerjiyi kritik bir korunma arac\u0131 haline getiriyor; ani bir t\u0131rmanma petrol\u00fc yukar\u0131 iterken, yap\u0131\u015fkan enflasyonu da daha da k\u00f6r\u00fckleyebilir.<\/p>\n\n
Haftan\u0131n kalan\u0131na bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, yakla\u015fan FOMC tutanaklar\u0131 ve \u00f6nc\u00fc PMI verileri etraf\u0131nda piyasa dalgalanmalar\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131na haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olunmal\u0131. \u0130malat PMI\u2019\u0131n\u0131n 53,8\u2019lik tahminin alt\u0131na gerilemesi, y\u00fckselen getirilerle birlikte sanayide yava\u015flamay\u0131 teyit ederek klasik bir stagflasyon sinyali verecektir. Dow\u2019da 53.800 seviyesi yak\u0131ndan izlenecek; bu direncin \u00fczerinde g\u00fcnl\u00fck kapan\u0131\u015f, negatif duru\u015fumuzu ge\u00e7ersiz k\u0131lacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentisi s\u00f6n\u00fcyor ama uzun vadeli tahvil getirileri zirvede: Dow 53.400\u2019e geriliyor. Konut verisi zay\u0131f, volatilite artabilir. Tahvil bask\u0131s\u0131 s\u00fcrerken enerjide 85+ dolar g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49983,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52959","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t