TD Securities\u2019in emtia stratejisi ekibi, petrol piyasas\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131k\u0131 kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesi ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00e7evresindeki jeopolitik riskin devam etmesi nedeniyle Brent\u2019in y\u00fcksek seviyelerde kalmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor. \u015eirket, ko\u015fullar\u0131n Aral\u0131k 2026\u2019dan \u00f6nce normalle\u015fmesini beklemiyor ve d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck petrol \u00fcr\u00fcn\u00fc stoklar\u0131n\u0131n yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcregelen bask\u0131ya ve g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc talebe i\u015faret ederek tahminlerini piyasa konsens\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn \u00fcst band\u0131nda tutuyor.<\/p>\n\n
TD, 2026\u2019da y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda k\u00fcresel ham petrol arz a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n 1,6\u20132,0 milyon varil\/g\u00fcn seviyesinde olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131, buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k 5\u20136 milyon varil\/g\u00fcn \u00fcretim kapasitesinin h\u00e2l\u00e2 devre d\u0131\u015f\u0131 kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tahmin ediyor. Mevcut Brent seviyesinin 90 dolar\/varil civar\u0131nda oldu\u011fu dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki \u00fc\u00e7 ayda fiyatlar\u0131n 5\u201310 dolar\/varil daha yukar\u0131da i\u015flem g\u00f6rmesini bekliyor ve yeniden \u00fc\u00e7 haneli seviyelere d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fcksek de\u011ferlendiriyor.<\/p>\n\n
Brent ham petrol\u00fcn\u00fcn h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda varil ba\u015f\u0131na 90 dolar civar\u0131nda seyretmesiyle, t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda belirgin bir yukar\u0131 harekete pozisyon almas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Al\u0131m (call) opsiyonu al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 tercih etmeli; \u00f6zellikle Kas\u0131m 2026 vadeli kontratlarda 95 ve 100 dolar kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 hedeflemeliyiz. Bu strateji, g\u00fcnde 2 milyon varile kadar \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclen k\u00fcresel arz a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n tetikleyebilece\u011fi \u00fc\u00e7 haneli seviyelere s\u0131\u00e7rama olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan faydalanmam\u0131z\u0131 sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n\n
D\u00fcnya petrol\u00fcn\u00fcn yakla\u015f\u0131k %20\u2019sinin ge\u00e7ti\u011fi kritik bir bo\u011faz olan H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 yak\u0131n\u0131ndaki jeopolitik gerilimlerin ani fiyat s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131n\u0131 tetiklemesi muhtemel. Bu riski de\u011ferlendirmek i\u00e7in, opsiyon primleri daha y\u00fcksek riski fiyatlamadan \u00f6nce call calendar\u2019lar veya basit straddle\u2019lar gibi uzun volatilite pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131n kurulmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Ge\u00e7mi\u015f denizcilik \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131na ili\u015fkin tarihsel veriler, enerji opsiyonlar\u0131nda ima edilen volatilitenin, sevkiyat hatlar\u0131 aktif bi\u00e7imde tehdit edildi\u011finde h\u0131zla a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 y\u00fckselme e\u011filiminde oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n\n
K\u00fcresel motorin ve benzin stoklar\u0131n\u0131n be\u015f y\u0131ll\u0131k dip seviyelere yak\u0131n kalmas\u0131 nedeniyle, rafine \u00fcr\u00fcn piyasalar\u0131nda da y\u00fcksek k\u00e2rl\u0131l\u0131k potansiyeli ta\u015f\u0131yan bir f\u0131rsat g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, heating oil veya RBOB benzin vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda al\u0131m yaparken Brent vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda sat\u0131\u015f yaparak uzun crack spread pozisyonlar\u0131na girmeyi de\u011ferlendirmeli. Bu i\u015flem, rafineri kullan\u0131m oranlar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc k\u00fcresel talebi kar\u015f\u0131lamakta zorland\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret eden son rafineri verileriyle destekleniyor; bu durum \u00fcr\u00fcn primlerini y\u00fcksek tutmaya devam edecektir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Brent\u2019te yeni zirve mi geliyor? TD Securities, s\u0131k\u0131 piyasa, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck stoklar ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz riskleriyle y\u00fcksek fiyatlar\u0131n s\u00fcrece\u011fini; 3 ayda +5-10 dolar ve yeniden 100+ olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50003,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52955","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t