Scotiabank, USD\/CAD\u2019nin 1,3870 civar\u0131nda dengeye yak\u0131n i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc, Kanada dolar\u0131n\u0131n daralan k\u0131sa vade faiz farklar\u0131 ve g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc petrol fiyatlar\u0131yla desteklendi\u011fini belirtiyor. Bankan\u0131n spot i\u00e7in adil de\u011fer tahmini 1,3843\u2019e do\u011fru s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 gerilerken, k\u00fcresel hisse senetlerindeki zay\u0131flamaya ve ABD dolar\u0131ndaki hafif toparlanmaya ra\u011fmen CAD\u2019in G10 blo\u011funda marjinal bir \u201cdaha iyi performans\u201d sergiledi\u011fi ifade ediliyor. Piyasalar, yakla\u015fan ABD tarife son tarihine kar\u015f\u0131 sakin g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor; s\u00f6z konusu tarihte Kanada\u2019n\u0131n s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir ihracat kalemine %50 g\u00fcmr\u00fck vergisi getirilebilece\u011fi, g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin s\u00fcrmesine kar\u015f\u0131n otomobiller konusunda t\u0131kand\u0131\u011f\u0131 aktar\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Teknik tarafta Scotiabank, USD\/CAD\u2019yi g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f trendinde olarak nitelendiriyor. 1,3848\u2019deki 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalamadan gelen tepki k\u0131sa vadede d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc kesintiye u\u011fratabilir; ancak banka, 1,39\u2019a do\u011fru yeniden sat\u0131\u015f ilgisinin ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor. A\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risk 1,3817\u2019ye i\u015faret ediyor; buras\u0131 May\u0131s\u2013Haziran y\u00fckseli\u015finin %61,8 geri \u00e7ekilme seviyesi olarak tan\u0131mlan\u0131yor. 1,35\u20131,37 b\u00f6lgesi daha derin bir hedef olarak \u00e7er\u00e7evelenirken, diren\u00e7 1,4000\/25 band\u0131na yerle\u015ftiriliyor; g\u00fcn i\u00e7i, g\u00fcnl\u00fck ve haftal\u0131k DMI osilat\u00f6rlerinde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc hizalanma da buna e\u015flik ediyor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131na, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda Kanada dolar\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7lenmeye haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmalar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz; zira USD\/CAD paritesi g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131yla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya. Kur 1,3870 civar\u0131nda seyrederken, ABD dolar\u0131ndaki k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck tepki y\u00fckseli\u015flerinde k\u0131sa pozisyon olu\u015fturulmas\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz. 1,3900 seviyesi yak\u0131n\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc sat\u0131\u015f ilgisinin ABD dolar\u0131 kazan\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlamas\u0131n\u0131 ve bunun daha derin bir geri \u00e7ekilmenin \u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7mas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n
Ay\u0131 senaryomuz, \u00f6zellikle ABD ve Kanada 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k devlet tahvilleri aras\u0131ndaki getiri fark\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k 45 baz puana daralmas\u0131yla de\u011fi\u015fen temellerle destekleniyor. Ayr\u0131ca Kanada dolar\u0131, Brent petrol\u00fcn varil ba\u015f\u0131na 80 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rmesiyle k\u00fcresel petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n diren\u00e7li kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 enerji cephesinden g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc destek buluyor. Bu unsurlar, USD\/CAD i\u00e7in tahmini adil de\u011ferimizi 1,3843\u2019e \u00e7ekerek spot kurda a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc alan oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Bu trendden faydalanmak i\u00e7in opsiyon yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 1,3817 destek seviyesini hedefleyen sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 almay\u0131 veya ay\u0131 put spread stratejilerini de\u011ferlendirmeli; ikincil hedef olarak 1,3500\u20131,3700 band\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Mevcut opsiyon fiyatlamas\u0131, ima edilen volatilitenin g\u00f6rece d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor; bu da uzun put stratejilerini a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir k\u0131r\u0131lmaya pozisyon almak i\u00e7in maliyet etkin bir se\u00e7enek haline getiriyor. Bu pozisyonlar\u0131 korumak i\u00e7in 1,4000\u20131,4025 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc diren\u00e7 b\u00f6lgesinin hemen \u00fczerinde al\u0131m-stoplar\u0131 belirlenmesini veya koruyucu al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Yar\u0131nki tarife son tarihi, Kanada mallar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik olas\u0131 %50 ithalat vergileri nedeniyle ba\u015fl\u0131k riskini art\u0131rsa da, paritenin istikrar\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde endi\u015feli olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Ticaret anla\u015fmazl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7\u00f6zmek \u00fczere \u00fcst d\u00fczey siyasi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler halihaz\u0131rda s\u00fcr\u00fcyor ve tarihsel olarak bu t\u00fcr gerilimler, uzun vadeli trend d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015flerinden ziyade ge\u00e7ici piyasa g\u00fcr\u00fclt\u00fcs\u00fc yarat\u0131yor. Bu nedenle USD\/CAD\u2019de tarifelerin tetikleyebilece\u011fi ani s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131, daha ucuz Kanada dolar\u0131 al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 almak i\u00e7in \u201cprimi y\u00fcksek\u201d f\u0131rsatlar olarak de\u011ferlendiriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" USD\/CAD\u2019de ay\u0131 alarm\u0131: Scotiabank 1,3870\u2019te dengeye ra\u011fmen CAD\u2019in petrol ve daralan faiz fark\u0131yla g\u00fc\u00e7lendi\u011fini, adil de\u011ferin 1,3843\u2019e indi\u011fini s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor; hedef 1,3817\/1,35-1,37, diren\u00e7 1,4000-25.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49971,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52954","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t