Amerika Birle\u015fik Devletleri Redbook Endeksi (Y\u0131ll\u0131k), 14 A\u011fustos itibar\u0131yla \u00f6nceki 8,3% seviyesinden 7,6%\u2019ya gerileyerek Redbook\u2019un perakende sat\u0131\u015f \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcm\u00fcnde y\u0131ll\u0131k b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin ivme kaybetti\u011fine i\u015faret etti.<\/p>\n
S\u00f6z konusu hareket, bir \u00f6nceki veriye k\u0131yasla 0,7 y\u00fczde puanl\u0131k bir yava\u015flamaya kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k geliyor. Son g\u00fcncelleme, Redbook\u2019un ayn\u0131 ma\u011faza sat\u0131\u015f trendlerini haftal\u0131k bazda izleyen verisine dayanan man\u015fet y\u0131ll\u0131k orandaki son d\u00f6nemdeki so\u011fuman\u0131n s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
ABD Redbook Endeksi\u2019nin 14 A\u011fustos\u2019ta 7,6%\u2019ya sert gerilemesi, t\u00fcketici harcamalar\u0131nda nihayet so\u011fuma sinyallerinin g\u00fc\u00e7lendi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Bu yava\u015flaman\u0131n enflasyon \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131y\u0131 azaltaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131, dolay\u0131s\u0131yla Federal Rezerv\u2019in yakla\u015fan Eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na ara verme veya faiz indirimlerini de\u011ferlendirme ihtimalini art\u0131raca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede t\u00fcrev piyasas\u0131 kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n, faiz vadeli i\u015flem kontratlar\u0131nda daha \u201cg\u00fcvercin\u201d bir patikay\u0131 fiyatlayacak \u015fekilde pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 h\u0131zl\u0131 g\u00fcncellemesi gerekebilir.<\/p>\n
Hisse senedi opsiyonlar\u0131 taraf\u0131nda, SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT) gibi perakende odakl\u0131 borsa yat\u0131r\u0131m fonlar\u0131nda \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n artmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. Tarihsel olarak, bu \u00f6l\u00e7ekte perakende ivmesindeki ani d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fler, iste\u011fe ba\u011fl\u0131 t\u00fcketim (consumer discretionary) hisselerinde ima edilen volatilitede ge\u00e7ici bir y\u00fckseli\u015fi tetikleyebiliyor. Daha geni\u015f bir t\u00fcketici talebi geri \u00e7ekilmesine kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak amac\u0131yla, negatif y\u00f6nl\u00fc opsiyon spread\u2019leri kullan\u0131lmas\u0131 veya y\u00fcksek kald\u0131ra\u00e7l\u0131 perakende hisselerinde koruyucu put opsiyonlar\u0131 al\u0131nmas\u0131 de\u011ferlendirilebilir.<\/p>\n
Sabit getirili t\u00fcrevlerde ise, perakende aktivitedeki bu yava\u015flamaya piyasan\u0131n tepki vermesiyle Hazine tahvili getirilerinin gerilemesini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Redbook b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin tek haftada yar\u0131m y\u00fczde puan\u0131n \u00fczerinde d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fc \u00f6nceki d\u00f6nemlerde, k\u0131sa vadeli Hazine tahvili vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda s\u0131kl\u0131kla k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli bir ralli g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Getiri e\u011frisinin dikle\u015fmesi ihtimaline kar\u015f\u0131 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k veya 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k Hazine tahvili vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131yla pozisyon al\u0131nmas\u0131 \u00f6nerilebilir.<\/p>\n
Her ne kadar 7,6%\u2019l\u0131k b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131 h\u00e2l\u00e2 yakla\u015f\u0131k 3% seviyesindeki 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tarihsel ortalaman\u0131n belirgin bi\u00e7imde \u00fczerinde olsa da, sert a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc kayma k\u00fcm\u00fclatif ekonomik bask\u0131lar\u0131n t\u00fcketici \u00fczerinde etkisini art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Bu yava\u015flaman\u0131n kal\u0131c\u0131 bir trende d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcp d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fmedi\u011fini teyit etmek i\u00e7in ay\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6neminde a\u00e7\u0131klanacak resmi perakende sat\u0131\u015f verilerinin yak\u0131ndan izlenmesi gerekiyor. O zamana kadar, k\u0131sa vadeli opsiyonlarla \u00e7evik kalmak ani piyasa dalgalanmalar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 temel savunma hatt\u0131m\u0131z olacak.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Redbook y\u0131ll\u0131k b\u00fcy\u00fcme 8,3\u2019ten 7,6\u2019ya inerek perakendede ivme kayb\u0131n\u0131 teyit etti. Bu so\u011fuma enflasyon bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 azalt\u0131p Fed\u2019de g\u00fcvercin fiyatlamay\u0131, tahvil getirilerinde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc ve XRT\u2019de oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 tetikleyebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50066,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52947","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t