Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc erken ABD saatlerinde Alt\u0131n (XAU\/USD) gerileyerek iki g\u00fcnl\u00fck y\u00fckseli\u015fini sonland\u0131rd\u0131; daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD Dolar\u0131 ve y\u00fckselen uzun vadeli ABD Hazine tahvili getirileri metal \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 olu\u015fturdu. Fiyat, g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde %0,47 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 4.396 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k getiri %4,75\u2019e do\u011fru y\u00fckselirken, 30 y\u0131ll\u0131k getiri %5,30\u2019un \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karak 2007\u2019den bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyeyi g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Enflasyon ve mali endi\u015felerle ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 k\u00fcresel tahvil sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131, Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k, Almanya ve Japonya\u2019da uzun vadeli bor\u00e7lanma maliyetlerini yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekti. ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY), pazartesi 99,30\u2019dan (5 Haziran\u2019dan bu yana en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviye) toparlanmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan 99,67 civar\u0131ndayd\u0131.<\/p>\n\n
Petrol kaynakl\u0131 enflasyon endi\u015feleri, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00fczerindeki gerilimin s\u00fcrmesiyle g\u00fcndemde kalmaya devam etti ve ABD, pazartesi sona eren \u0130ran\u2019la mutabakat zapt\u0131n\u0131n uzat\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 aramad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. CME FedWatch Tool\u2019a g\u00f6re piyasalar, Fed\u2019in gelecek ay faizleri de\u011fi\u015ftirmeme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %65 olarak fiyatlad\u0131; dikkatler \u00e7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc yay\u0131mlanacak Federal A\u00e7\u0131k Piyasa Komitesi (FOMC) tutanaklar\u0131na \u00e7evrildi. Teknik tarafta XAU\/USD, 50 periyotluk SMA olan 4.365 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde tutunurken 100 ve 200 periyotluk SMA\u2019lar\u0131n da \u00fczerinde kald\u0131; ancak 4.300\u20134.450 band\u0131nda yatay seyrini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. RSI 52 seviyesindeydi, MACD s\u0131f\u0131r\u0131n hafif alt\u0131nda kald\u0131 ve ADX 30\u2019du; yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc k\u0131r\u0131lmada 4.500 dolar, deste\u011fin k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 halinde ise 4.225 ve 4.151 dolar seviyeleri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda Alt\u0131n (XAU\/USD) i\u00e7in t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapanlar\u0131n yatay bant stratejilerine odaklanmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz; zira metal 4.300\u20134.450 dolar aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015f durumda. G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi\u2019nin (RSI) n\u00f6tr b\u00f6lgeye yak\u0131n 52 seviyesinde bulunmas\u0131, k\u0131sa vadede g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir k\u0131r\u0131lma beklentimizi s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor. Bu bant i\u00e7inde iron condor gibi out-of-the-money opsiyon sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131, s\u00f6z konusu konsolidasyondan faydalanmam\u0131za olanak tan\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n
10 y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD Hazine tahvili getirisinin %4,75\u2019e t\u0131rman\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 yak\u0131ndan izlemeliyiz; bu seviye, getirisi olmayan varl\u0131klar\u0131 elde tutman\u0131n f\u0131rsat maliyetini art\u0131rarak tarihsel olarak alt\u0131n\u0131n cazibesini azalt\u0131r. 30 y\u0131ll\u0131k getiri %5,30\u2019un \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karken\u20142007 k\u00fcresel kriz d\u00f6nemi sonras\u0131 g\u00f6rmedi\u011fimiz bir seviye\u2014genel tahvil sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131 alt\u0131n\u0131n yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 tutuyor. T\u00fcrev pozisyonlar\u0131m\u0131z a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu, prim toplamak i\u00e7in 4.450 dolar diren\u00e7 b\u00f6lgesine yak\u0131n k\u0131sa call yaz\u0131m\u0131na daha fazla a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k vermemiz gerekti\u011fi anlam\u0131na gelir.<\/p>\n\n
Bununla birlikte, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019nda artan jeopolitik riskleri g\u00f6z ard\u0131 edemeyiz; bu riskler tarihsel olarak ani enerji fiyat \u015foklar\u0131na yol a\u00e7m\u0131\u015f ve alt\u0131na g\u00fcvenli liman talebini h\u0131zla tetiklemi\u015ftir. Gerilimin t\u0131rmanmas\u0131 ve ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 yukar\u0131 itmesi halinde, k\u0131sa pozisyonlar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 hedge etmek i\u00e7in 4.450 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde koruyucu call opsiyonlar\u0131 almaya haz\u0131r olmal\u0131y\u0131z. 4.450 dolar \u00fczerinde net bir k\u0131r\u0131lma, alt\u0131n\u0131 h\u0131zl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde 4.500 dolardaki psikolojik e\u015fi\u011fe ta\u015f\u0131yabilir.<\/p>\n\n
CME FedWatch Tool, Fed\u2019in gelecek ay faizleri sabit tutma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %65 olarak g\u00f6sterirken ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc ivmesi s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalabilir. Fed\u2019in g\u00fcvercin bir duru\u015fa yakla\u015f\u0131p yakla\u015fmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rmek i\u00e7in yakla\u015fan FOMC tutanaklar\u0131n\u0131 kullanmal\u0131y\u0131z; bu, alt\u0131n\u0131 destekler. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k tutanaklar uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek faizlere i\u015faret ederse, alt\u0131n\u0131n ilk destek seviyesi olan 4.365 dolar\u0131 test etmesini ve 4.300 dolara do\u011fru geri \u00e7ekilmesini bekleriz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Alt\u0131nda fren: G\u00fc\u00e7lenen dolar ve %5,30\u2019u a\u015fan 30 y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD getirisi XAU\/USD\u2019yi 4.396\u2019ya \u00e7ekti. Piyasa FOMC tutanaklar\u0131na kilitli; 4.300\u20134.450 bantta opsiyon stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50093,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52943","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t