D\u00fc\u015f\u00fck volatilite, \u0130svi\u00e7re frang\u0131\u2019n\u0131 (CHF) ve Japon yeni\u2019ni (JPY) fonlama para birimleri olarak yeniden \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131rken, frank\u0131n yen al\u0131m\u0131na y\u00f6nelik olas\u0131 m\u00fcdahalelere maruziyeti azaltma arac\u0131 olarak daha fazla ilgi g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc belirtiliyor. Bu kayma, daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetli CHF bor\u00e7lanmas\u0131na y\u00f6nelme e\u011filimi ile Tokyo ve Washington kaynakl\u0131 politika ad\u0131mlar\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 ani hareketlerden ka\u00e7\u0131nma iste\u011fini yans\u0131t\u0131yor. S\u00f6z konusu dinamik, iki para biriminin benzer yat\u0131r\u0131m \u00f6zellikleri dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, carry-pozitif bir yen g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc ifade etmek i\u00e7in k\u0131sa CHF\/JPY pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131n kullan\u0131labilece\u011fi fikrini de destekliyor.<\/p>\n
EUR\/CHF\u2019de 0,95\u2019e do\u011fru bir hareketin, daha y\u00fcksek petrol fiyatlar\u0131 ve faiz oranlar\u0131nda genel bir y\u00fckseli\u015f ko\u015fuluna ba\u011fl\u0131 oldu\u011fu \u00e7er\u00e7eveleniyor. Bu arka planda, \u0130svi\u00e7re Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (SNB) s\u0131f\u0131r faiz politikas\u0131n\u0131 sabit tutmas\u0131n\u0131n, frank\u0131n geride kalmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7abilecek bir unsur olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131 ifade ediliyor. Metinde ayr\u0131ca, i\u00e7eri\u011fin bir yapay zek\u00e2 arac\u0131 yard\u0131m\u0131yla haz\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve bir edit\u00f6r taraf\u0131ndan incelendi\u011fi not ediliyor.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda t\u00fcrev piyasas\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n, ani d\u00fczenleyici kesintilerden ka\u00e7\u0131nmak i\u00e7in fonlama stratejilerini Japon Yeni\u2019nden \u0130svi\u00e7re Frang\u0131\u2019na kayd\u0131rmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. Tokyo\u2019nun yeni desteklemek amac\u0131yla tekrarlayan \u015fekilde b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7ekli d\u00f6viz m\u00fcdahalelerine ba\u015fvurmu\u015f olmas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131n, \u0130svi\u00e7re frang\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetli bor\u00e7lanma i\u00e7in \u00e7ok daha istikrarl\u0131 bir alternatif sunuyor. CHF\u2019nin fonlama para birimi olarak kullan\u0131lmas\u0131yla, merkez bankas\u0131 kaynakl\u0131 ani piyasa ters y\u00f6n hareketleri tehdidi olmaks\u0131z\u0131n istikrarl\u0131 getiri farklar\u0131n\u0131n (spread) yakalanabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Yeni g\u00fc\u00e7lenece\u011fine y\u00f6nelik carry-pozitif bir pozisyon almak isteyen yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar i\u00e7in, opsiyonlar veya vadeli i\u015flemler (forward) arac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131yla CHF\/JPY\u2019de k\u0131sa pozisyon \u00f6neriyoruz. Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n politika faizini yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,25 – %0,50 band\u0131nda sabit tutmas\u0131 ve \u0130svi\u00e7re Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n da kendi politika faizini \u00e7\u0131pal\u0131 tutmas\u0131yla, getiri fark\u0131 y\u00fcksek \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclebilir kal\u0131yor. Tarihsel veriler, her iki para birimi de g\u00fcvenli liman gibi davrand\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, CHF\/JPY\u2019de k\u0131sa pozisyonun a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n riskini s\u0131n\u0131rlarken Tokyo\u2019nun m\u00fcdahale tehdidine ba\u011fl\u0131 fiyatlamadan faydalanmaya imk\u00e2n verdi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Bu arada EUR\/CHF yak\u0131ndan izlenmeli; zira 0,9500 seviyesine do\u011fru bir hareketin, enerji piyasalar\u0131nda yeniden canlanmay\u0131 gerektirmesi muhtemel. Mevcut enerji verileri, Brent petrol\u00fcn varil ba\u015f\u0131na 75-80 dolar band\u0131nda seyretti\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor; ancak frank\u0131n daha fazla zay\u0131flamas\u0131 i\u00e7in, k\u00fcresel tahvil getirilerindeki y\u00fckseli\u015fle birlikte petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n yeniden daha y\u00fcksek seviyelere y\u00f6nelmesi gerekiyor. Bu makro tetikleyiciler \u00f6rt\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrse, yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc k\u0131r\u0131lmay\u0131 yakalamak ad\u0131na EUR\/CHF al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Piyasada d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck volatilite, fonlama para birimi tercihini JPY\u2019den CHF\u2019ye kayd\u0131r\u0131yor; m\u00fcdahale riskinden ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Carry-pozitif yen i\u00e7in k\u0131sa CHF\/JPY \u00f6neriliyor. EUR\/CHF\u2019de 0,95, petrol-faiz y\u00fckseli\u015fine ba\u011fl\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50041,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52942","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t