Brent, jeopolitik gerilim ve arz tarafl\u0131 risklerin fiyatlar\u0131 desteklemesiyle \u00fcst \u00fcste \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc seansta da y\u00fckseli\u015fini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrerek 91 $\/varilin \u00fczerinde i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Hareket, ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n ABD-\u0130ran bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 uzatmama karar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan geldi; H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki kal\u0131c\u0131 g\u00fcvenlik endi\u015feleri de olas\u0131 kesintilere ili\u015fkin kayg\u0131lar\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131. Suudi Arabistan\u2019\u0131n, Basra K\u00f6rfezi d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan ihracat rotas\u0131 olu\u015fturma hedefiyle Umman a\u00e7\u0131klar\u0131ndaki noktalardan ham petrol kargolar\u0131 teklif etti\u011fi bildirildi; Saudi Aramco, Sohar dahil terminallerden gemiden gemiye transferlerle Arab Medium ve Arab Heavy\u2019yi pazarl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
\u00c7in\u2019de talep g\u00f6stergeleri zay\u0131flad\u0131. Rafineri i\u015fleme hacmi temmuzda y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %15,8 d\u00fc\u015ferek 12,5 \u043c\u043b\u043d varil\/g\u00fcne gerilerken, g\u00f6r\u00fcnen petrol talebi de daha zay\u0131f sanayi faaliyeti, d\u00fc\u015fen rafinaj marjlar\u0131 ve artan elektrikli ara\u00e7 (EV) benimsenmesiyle birlikte y\u0131ll\u0131k %17,5 azalarak 12,04 \u043c\u043b\u043d varil\/g\u00fcne d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. \u00dcr\u00fcn taraf\u0131nda orta distilatlar g\u00fc\u00e7lendi; ICE gazya\u011f\u0131 (gasoil) crack\u2019i, Ukrayna\u2019n\u0131n Rusya\u2019n\u0131n Ust-Luga tesisine sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131na ili\u015fkin haberler ve s\u00fcregelen Rus dizel ihracat k\u0131s\u0131tlamalar\u0131n\u0131n deste\u011fiyle 76 $\/tona yakla\u015ft\u0131. Spek\u00fclatif net uzun pozisyonlar \u00fcst \u00fcste alt\u0131nc\u0131 haftada da artarak \u015fubattan bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyeye \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Brent petrol\u00fcn 91 $\/varilin \u00fczerine s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131yla, t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lara \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc potansiyeli yakalamak i\u00e7in al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (call) kullanarak pozitif e\u011filimi korumalar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. \u00d6zellikle d\u00fcnya g\u00fcnl\u00fck petrol t\u00fcketiminin yakla\u015f\u0131k %20\u2019sinin ge\u00e7ti\u011fi H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00e7evresindeki jeopolitik s\u00fcrt\u00fc\u015fme, arz kesintisi risklerini y\u00fcksek tutuyor. ABD-\u0130ran hatt\u0131ndaki belirsizlik son derece y\u00fcksek seyrederken, ani fiyat s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in call spread stratejileri de\u011ferlendirilebilir.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca orta distilatlara odaklan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz; vadeli i\u015flemler piyasas\u0131nda belirgin taktik f\u0131rsatlar g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Tarihsel olarak g\u00fcnl\u00fck 240 bin varilin \u00fczerinde hacim y\u00f6neten Rusya\u2019n\u0131n Ust-Luga i\u015fleme tesisine y\u00f6nelik son sald\u0131r\u0131lar ile dizel ihracat yasaklar\u0131n\u0131n birle\u015fimi, piyasay\u0131 olduk\u00e7a s\u0131k\u0131 tutuyor. Halihaz\u0131rda 76 $\/tona yakla\u015fan gasoil crack spread\u2019lerinde uzun pozisyonlar, sonbahar ara sezonuna ilerlerken g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir risk-getiri profili sunuyor.<\/p>\n
\u00d6te yandan Suudi Arabistan\u2019\u0131n Umman a\u00e7\u0131klar\u0131nda gemiden gemiye transferlerle ham petrol t\u00fcrlerini pazarlamas\u0131, b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00fcreticilerin tedarik hatlar\u0131ndaki aksamalar i\u00e7in aktif bi\u00e7imde haz\u0131rl\u0131k yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bu \u00e7e\u015fitlendirme Basra K\u00f6rfezi d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan ak\u0131\u015flar\u0131 g\u00fcvenceye almaya yard\u0131mc\u0131 olsa da, b\u00f6lgede kal\u0131c\u0131 yap\u0131sal risklerin alt\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7iziyor. Alternatif sevkiyat rotalar\u0131n\u0131n geleneksel fiyatlama g\u00f6stergelerini de\u011fi\u015ftirmesi nedeniyle Brent-Dubai spread\u2019inin yak\u0131ndan izlenmesini tavsiye ediyoruz.<\/p>\n
A\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nde ise bu iyimserli\u011fin, \u00c7in\u2019in zay\u0131flayan i\u015ftah\u0131yla dengelenmesi gerekiyor; temmuzda rafineri i\u015fleme hacmi y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %15,8 d\u00fc\u015ferek g\u00fcnl\u00fck 12,5 \u043c\u043b\u043d varile geriledi. \u00c7in\u2019de EV benimsenmesinin h\u0131zlanmas\u0131 ve EV sat\u0131\u015f penetrasyonunun son d\u00f6nemde kritik %50 e\u015fi\u011fini a\u015fmas\u0131, ula\u015ft\u0131rma yak\u0131t\u0131 talebi \u00fczerinde kal\u0131c\u0131 bir bask\u0131 yarat\u0131yor. Bu riski y\u00f6netmek i\u00e7in yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda talep kaynakl\u0131 olas\u0131 ani geri \u00e7ekilmelere kar\u015f\u0131 koruyucu sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (put) almay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmelidir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Brent 91 dolar \u00fcst\u00fcnde: H\u00fcrm\u00fcz kaynakl\u0131 arz riskleri ve ABD-\u0130ran belirsizli\u011fi fiyat\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131yor. Suudilerin Umman rotas\u0131 izleniyor. \u00c7in talebi sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor; gasoil crack g\u00fc\u00e7lenirken opsiyon stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49963,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52939","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t