MUFG, EUR\/USD\u2019nin 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalamas\u0131n\u0131 a\u015fmakta zorland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve 1,1630 seviyesinde diren\u00e7 g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc belirtirken, bankan\u0131n k\u0131sa vadeli regresyon modeli spot kurun %2,5-%3,0 oran\u0131nda a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 de\u011ferli oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. Notta, ge\u00e7en hafta gelen daha zay\u0131f ABD verilerinin Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 beklentilerini yumu\u015fatt\u0131\u011f\u0131, ancak ABD Dolar Endeksi\u2019nin (DXY) kendi 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalamas\u0131 olan 99,185\u2019in \u00fczerinde kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrerek yak\u0131n vadede sert bir dolar tersine d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcn alan\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ifade ediliyor.<\/p>\n
Banka, getiri farklar\u0131ndan gelen euro deste\u011finin; enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndaki y\u00fckseli\u015fin b\u00fcy\u00fcme kayg\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rmas\u0131 veya g\u0131da dahil daha geni\u015f enflasyon bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n daha g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcr hale gelmesi durumunda zay\u0131flayabilece\u011fini savunuyor. Euronun DXY sepetinde b\u00fcy\u00fck bir a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011fa sahip olmas\u0131 nedeniyle, dolar endeksinde 99,185 destek seviyesinin k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 momentum a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan olas\u0131 bir kataliz\u00f6r olarak de\u011ferlendirilirken, euronun teknik tavan\u0131 g\u00fcndemde kal\u0131yor. MUFG, bug\u00fcnk\u00fc ZEW Beklentiler endeksini, bu risklerin duyarl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 bask\u0131lamaya ba\u015flay\u0131p ba\u015flamad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylarda para birimi \u00fczerinde a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k olu\u015fturup olu\u015fturmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7mek i\u00e7in yak\u0131n vadeli bir g\u00f6sterge olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda EUR\/USD paritesinde yak\u0131n vadeli bir geri \u00e7ekilmeye pozisyonlanmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. K\u0131sa vadeli de\u011ferleme modellerimiz, euronun \u015fu anda yakla\u015f\u0131k %2,5 ila %3,0 oran\u0131nda a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 de\u011ferli oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor; bu da pariteyi a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131ya kar\u015f\u0131 olduk\u00e7a k\u0131r\u0131lgan hale getiriyor. Bundan faydalanmak i\u00e7in, sermayeyi korurken a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketi yakalamak ad\u0131na EUR\/USD put opsiyonlar\u0131 al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 veya bear put spread kurulmas\u0131n\u0131 tercih etmeliyiz.<\/p>\n
Teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde euro, kritik 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalamas\u0131 yak\u0131n\u0131nda bask\u0131lanmaya devam ediyor; bu seviye, k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin zay\u0131f seyretti\u011fi d\u00f6nemlerde tarihsel olarak g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc sat\u0131\u015f dalgalar\u0131n\u0131 tetikleyen bir tavan niteli\u011finde. Ge\u00e7mi\u015f enerji \u015foklar\u0131ndaki e\u011filimlere bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, bu diren\u00e7 seviyesinin a\u015f\u0131lamamas\u0131 \u00e7o\u011fu zaman h\u0131zl\u0131 bir %2 ila %4 de\u011fer kayb\u0131yla sonu\u00e7lan\u0131yor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n bu kilit teknik seviyeleri yak\u0131ndan izlemesi gerekir; zira direncin k\u0131r\u0131lamamas\u0131, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc opsiyon hacmini muhtemelen h\u0131zland\u0131racakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca, oynak do\u011fal gaz fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n ve daha geni\u015f tabanl\u0131 enflasyon bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n besledi\u011fi Euro B\u00f6lgesi b\u00fcy\u00fcme risklerindeki art\u0131\u015f\u0131 da hesaba katmal\u0131y\u0131z. \u00d6rne\u011fin son veriler, Euro B\u00f6lgesi imalat PMI\u2019lar\u0131n\u0131n daralma b\u00f6lgesinden \u00e7\u0131kmakta zorland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterirken, enerji ithalat maliyetleri sanayi \u00fcretimi i\u00e7in kal\u0131c\u0131 bir tehdit olmaya devam ediyor. Bu makro r\u00fczgarlar\u0131n, son d\u00f6nemde euronun ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda ayakta kalmas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flayan getiri deste\u011fini a\u015f\u0131nd\u0131rmas\u0131 y\u00fcksek olas\u0131l\u0131k.<\/p>\n
Yakla\u015fan ZEW Beklentiler endeksi, bu ekonomik risklerin piyasa duyarl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 aktif bi\u00e7imde bask\u0131lay\u0131p bask\u0131lamad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rmek i\u00e7in kritik bir g\u00f6sterge olacak. Zay\u0131f bir veri, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risklerin birikti\u011fini teyit ederek delta-hedge edilmi\u015f stratejiler \u00fczerinden k\u0131sa EUR maruziyetimizi art\u0131rmam\u0131za yol a\u00e7abilir. Spot i\u015flem yerine yap\u0131land\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f opsiyonlar kullanarak, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda veriye ba\u011fl\u0131 ani oynakl\u0131klara kar\u015f\u0131 portf\u00f6ylerimizi koruyabiliriz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" EUR\/USD\u2019de kritik e\u015fik: MUFG\u2019ye g\u00f6re parite 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalamay\u0131 a\u015fam\u0131yor, 1,1630 diren\u00e7. Euro %2,5-3 a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 de\u011ferli. DXY 99,185 \u00fcst\u00fcnde. ZEW ve enerji\/enflasyon riskleri geri \u00e7ekilmeyi tetikleyebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50005,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52938","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t