Sterlin, Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019ta hazirana kadar olan \u00fc\u00e7 ayl\u0131k d\u00f6neme ili\u015fkin i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 verilerinin ard\u0131ndan yen kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda zay\u0131flad\u0131; GBP\/JPY yakla\u015f\u0131k 215,95 seviyesine geriledi. Ulusal \u0130statistik Ofisi (ONS), bordrolu istihdam\u0131n 83 bin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131; bu rakam \u00f6nceki d\u00f6nemdeki 147 binin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. ILO i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 ise %4,8\u2019lik beklentiye kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k %4,9\u2019da sabit kald\u0131. Primler hari\u00e7 ortalama kazan\u00e7lar y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %3,5 artarak, \u00f6nceki ve tahmin edilen %3,4 seviyesinin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; primler dahil \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcm ise %4,1\u2019lik beklentiyi kar\u015f\u0131larken, %4,3\u2019ten %4,4\u2019e yukar\u0131 revize edilen \u00f6nceki verinin ard\u0131ndan %4,4\u2019ten geriledi.<\/p>\n\n
Dikkatler \u015fimdi \u00e7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k T\u00dcFE verisine \u00e7evrildi. Man\u015fet enflasyonun hazirandaki %2,6\u2019dan y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %2,9\u2019a h\u0131zlanmas\u0131 beklenirken, \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE\u2019nin %2,6\u2019dan %2,5\u2019e inmesi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Piyasalar \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoE) y\u0131l sonuna kadar faizleri sabit tutaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisiyle konumlanm\u0131\u015f durumda. Japonya taraf\u0131nda ise, Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoJ) olas\u0131 ad\u0131m\u0131na y\u00f6nelik beklentilere ra\u011fmen para birimi zay\u0131f seyretti; fiyatlamalar eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131nda 25 baz puanl\u0131k faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na yakla\u015f\u0131k %80 olas\u0131l\u0131k atfediyor.<\/p>\n\n
GBP\/JPY paritesi 215,95 civar\u0131nda seyrederken, t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapanlar i\u00e7in paritede k\u0131sa pozisyon almak veya JPY al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 sat\u0131n almak y\u00f6n\u00fcnde \u00f6nemli bir f\u0131rsat g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019ta istihdam\u0131n so\u011fumas\u0131 ile BoJ\u2019dan yakla\u015fan bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 kombinasyonu, sterlin a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir ay\u0131 senaryosu olu\u015fturuyor. \u00d6zellikle bu \u00e7ar\u015famba gelecek kritik Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k enflasyon verisiyle birlikte \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n artmas\u0131na haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olunmal\u0131.<\/p>\n\n
Son Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc verileri, ekonomik ivmenin zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair net i\u015faretler veriyor: istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131 83 bine keskin \u015fekilde yava\u015flarken i\u015fsizlik %4,9\u2019da. \u00dccret art\u0131\u015f\u0131 %3,5 ile bir miktar yap\u0131\u015fkan kalsa da, so\u011fuyan i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 BoE\u2019nin faizleri y\u00fcksek seviyelerde tutmas\u0131n\u0131 gerek\u00e7elendirmesini zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor. \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcnk\u00fc T\u00dcFE verisi beklenen %2,9\u2019luk h\u0131zlanmay\u0131 yakalayamazsa, GBP\/JPY \u00fczerinde derhal a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 olu\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
\u00d6te yandan piyasa, BoJ\u2019un bu eyl\u00fclde 25 baz puanl\u0131k faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na gitme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir \u015fekilde %80 seviyesinde fiyatl\u0131yor. Tarihsel veriler, 2024 ortas\u0131ndaki faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 gibi benzer \u015fahin d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015flerin k\u00fcresel yen carry trade pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131n h\u0131zla \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmesini tetikledi\u011fini ve JPY\u2019yi belirgin bi\u00e7imde g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Bu potansiyel a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fc de\u011ferlendirmek ve k\u0131sa vadeli oynakl\u0131\u011fa kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in GBP\/JPY sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Sterlin, zay\u0131flayan UK istihdam\u0131 sonras\u0131 yen kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda 215,95\u2019e geriledi: art\u0131\u015f 83 bin, i\u015fsizlik %4,9. G\u00f6zler T\u00dcFE\u2019de; BoJ\u2019un Eyl\u00fclde 25 bp art\u0131\u015f ihtimali %80, ay\u0131 bask\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50047,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52930","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t