Almanya\u2019n\u0131n a\u011fustos ZEW verisi a\u00e7\u0131klanacak; konsens\u00fcs, enerji \u015fokuna ra\u011fmen ekonominin diren\u00e7li kalmas\u0131 ve mali gev\u015femenin faaliyeti desteklemesiyle mevcut durum endeksinde iyile\u015fme bekliyor. Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019ta da i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 raporu g\u00fcndemde; ortalama haftal\u0131k kazan\u00e7lar\u0131n %4\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerindeki seviyelerden gerilemesi, i\u015fsizli\u011fin ise %5\u2019in alt\u0131nda kalmas\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Piyasalar y\u0131l sonuna kadar BoE\u2019den bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiyatlarken, notta Bank Rate\u2019in de\u011fi\u015fmeden kalaca\u011f\u0131 tahmin ediliyor. ABD\u2019de ise temmuz sanayi ve imalat \u00fcretimi verilerinin hazirana k\u0131yasla bir miktar daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc gelmesi ve konut verileri bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da gerilimlerin, ABD ile \u0130ran aras\u0131ndaki 60 g\u00fcnl\u00fck mutabakat zapt\u0131n\u0131n (MoU) sona ermesinin ard\u0131ndan t\u0131rmanmas\u0131yla Brent petrol 91 ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n\/varilin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan tanker ge\u00e7i\u015flerinin normalle\u015fmesi duraksarken Bab el-Mandeb \u00e7evresinde riskler artt\u0131. ABD a\u011fustos duyarl\u0131l\u0131k g\u00f6stergeleri beklentileri a\u015ft\u0131: NY Fed Empire endeksi 11 beklentiye kar\u015f\u0131 15,6\u2019dan 20,6\u2019ya y\u00fckseldi; NAHB endeksi de 33 beklentiye kar\u015f\u0131 34\u2019ten 35\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. \u0130sve\u00e7\u2019te Origo enflasyon beklentileri 1 y\u0131lda %1,83\u2019ten %1,97\u2019ye, 2 y\u0131lda %2,02\u2019den %2,07\u2019ye y\u00fckseldi. \u00c7in\u2019in temmuz verileri zay\u0131flad\u0131: perakende sat\u0131\u015flar y\u0131ll\u0131k %0,6 (konsens\u00fcs %1,5; \u00f6nceki %1,0), sanayi \u00fcretimi y\u0131ll\u0131k %4,5 (%5,0; %5,3), yeni konut fiyatlar\u0131 ayl\u0131k %0,18 geriledi ve gayrimenkul yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 y\u0131lba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %20\u2019ye yak\u0131n d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Hisse senetleri geriledi; S&P 500 %0,5, Stoxx 600 %0,2 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. EUR\/USD k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli\u011fine 1,16\u2019n\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131ktan sonra 1,1580\u2019in alt\u0131na sarkarken, 30 y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD Hazine tahvili getirileri 2007\u2019den bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyeyi g\u00f6rd\u00fc.<\/p>\n
ABD 30 y\u0131ll\u0131k Hazine tahvili getirileri %5 e\u015fi\u011fine do\u011fru h\u0131zla y\u00fckselirken\u20142007\u2019den bu yana kal\u0131c\u0131 bi\u00e7imde g\u00f6r\u00fclmeyen seviyeler\u2014t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131na daha dik bir getiri e\u011frisi senaryosuna pozisyon almay\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Payer swaption kullan\u0131m\u0131 veya uzun vadeli Hazine tahvili vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda k\u0131sa pozisyon, bu \u201cay\u0131\u201d e\u011filimli dikle\u015fme bask\u0131s\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 korunmaya yard\u0131mc\u0131 olabilir. K\u00fcresel getiriler, y\u00fcksek bor\u00e7 ihra\u00e7lar\u0131 ve yap\u0131\u015fkan enerji maliyetleri nedeniyle yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 alt\u0131ndayken, uzun vade (duration) sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n uzamas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 koruma sa\u011flamak \u00f6ncelik olmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki jeopolitik istikrars\u0131zl\u0131k Brent petrol\u00fc yeniden varil ba\u015f\u0131na 91 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131yarak enflasyonist arz \u015foklar\u0131n\u0131 yeniden tetikleme riski yarat\u0131yor. Daha fazla yukar\u0131 potansiyeli yakalamak i\u00e7in Brent\u2019te \u201cout-of-the-money\u201d al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (call) al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 veya \u201cbull call spread\u201d stratejilerinin kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 ve Bab el-Mandeb \u00e7evresindeki sevkiyat aksamalar\u0131n\u0131n neden olabilece\u011fi ani s\u0131\u00e7ramalara kar\u015f\u0131 portf\u00f6yleri korur.<\/p>\n
D\u00f6viz piyasalar\u0131nda, emtia g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc oynayabilmek i\u00e7in Euro kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda Norve\u00e7 Kronu\u2019nda (NOK) uzun pozisyonu \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yoruz. EUR\/NOK son d\u00f6nemde 11,00 seviyesine yak\u0131n seyretti; y\u00fcksek petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n Norve\u00e7\u2019in d\u0131\u015f ticaret haddini desteklemesi nedeniyle uzun NOK pozisyonunu ifade eden opsiyon stratejileri cazip g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Di\u011fer taraftan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar EUR\/USD\u2019de 1,1580 seviyesini izlemeli; k\u0131sa vadeli \u201cstraddle\u201d i\u015flemleri, paritedeki ani oynakl\u0131ktan faydalanabilir.<\/p>\n
\u00c7in\u2019den gelen zay\u0131f veriler\u2014perakende sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n yaln\u0131zca %0,6\u2019ya yava\u015flamas\u0131 ve gayrimenkul yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n %20\u2019ye yak\u0131n gerilemesi\u2014k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin olduk\u00e7a dengesiz kald\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Daha geni\u015f \u00e7apl\u0131 bir hisse geri \u00e7ekilmesine kar\u015f\u0131 tampon olu\u015fturmak ad\u0131na, \u00f6zellikle artan enerji maliyetlerinin t\u00fcketici temel \u00fcr\u00fcnleri (consumer staples) \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir ortamda S&P 500 veya Stoxx 600\u2019de sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put) al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Bu defansif konumlanma, y\u00fcksek risksiz faiz oranlar\u0131 ve Asya\u2019daki zay\u0131f talebin tetikleyebilece\u011fi olas\u0131 bir d\u00fczeltmeye kar\u015f\u0131 portf\u00f6yleri korumaya yard\u0131mc\u0131 olur.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Piyasalar kritik veriler ve jeopolitik risk k\u0131skac\u0131nda: ZEW ve UK istihdam izlenirken BoE beklentisi tart\u0131\u015fmal\u0131. Brent 91$ \u00fcst\u00fc. ABD getirileri zirvede; \u00c7in zay\u0131f, hisseler geriliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49959,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52927","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t