Alt\u0131n (XAU\/USD), ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n iki ayl\u0131k dip seviyesinden toparlanmas\u0131yla iki g\u00fcnl\u00fck y\u00fckseli\u015fi sonland\u0131rarak Sal\u0131 g\u00fcnk\u00fc Avrupa seans\u0131nda 4.400 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131nda s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kay\u0131plarla i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Dolar\u0131 destekleyen unsurlar aras\u0131nda y\u00fckselen petrol fiyatlar\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 enflasyon endi\u015feleri ve 2026\u2019da en az bir ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentisi yer al\u0131rken, ABD-\u0130ran gerilimi jeopolitik risk primini canl\u0131 tuttu. ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump, neredeyse alt\u0131 ayd\u0131r s\u00fcren sava\u015f\u0131 bitirmek i\u00e7in \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n teslim olmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini s\u00f6yledi; Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc s\u00fcresi dolan \u0130ran\u2019la Mutabakat Muht\u0131ras\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Memorandum of Understanding) uzat\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n aranmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ekledi ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n ABD topra\u011f\u0131 ilan edilmesi fikrini yineledi. Trump ayr\u0131ca, su yolunun yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik \u00e7abalar\u0131 engellemesi halinde Umman\u2019\u0131 hedef alaca\u011f\u0131 uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulundu.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran destekli Husiler, Mokha yak\u0131nlar\u0131nda bir Suudi askeri \u00e7\u0131karma gemisi ile d\u00f6rt devriye botunu hedef almak i\u00e7in birden fazla balistik f\u00fcze kulland\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Bu geli\u015fme Bab\u00fclmendep Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan ge\u00e7en trafi\u011fe ili\u015fkin endi\u015feleri art\u0131rarak petrol\u00fc iki haftan\u0131n zirvesine ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. TD Securities, Fed\u2019in beklemede kalmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor; bununla birlikte 2026\u2019daki olas\u0131 ad\u0131m\u0131n bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olma ihtimalinin daha y\u00fcksek oldu\u011funu \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. \u00d6te yandan CME Group\u2019un FedWatch arac\u0131, Eyl\u00fcl 2026 toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faizlerin de\u011fi\u015fmeden kalma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %64 olarak g\u00f6steriyor. Teknik tarafta RSI 63,47 seviyesinde bulunurken MACD pozitif kald\u0131; 4.450 dolar civar\u0131nda ve 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA olan 4.508 dolarda diren\u00e7 izleniyor. Destekler ise 4.302,33 dolar, 4.164,44 dolar ve 3.941,54 dolar seviyelerinde.<\/p>\n
ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden g\u00fc\u00e7 kazanmas\u0131 ve Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da artan jeopolitik gerilimler nedeniyle alt\u0131n 4.400 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131nda bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kal\u0131rken, t\u00fcrev i\u015flemi yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n temkinli ilerlemesini \u00f6neriyoruz. ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil getirisi yeniden %4,35\u2019e do\u011fru y\u00fckselirken ve WTI ham petrol varil ba\u015f\u0131na 86 dolar civar\u0131nda seyrederken, enerji kaynakl\u0131 kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyon tehdidi getiri sa\u011flamayan varl\u0131klar \u00fczerinde bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor. Makroekonomik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm netle\u015fene kadar, t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 alt\u0131na y\u00f6nelik yak\u0131n vadeli put opsiyonu al\u0131m\u0131 gibi k\u0131sa vadeli savunmac\u0131 stratejileri de\u011ferlendirmeli.<\/p>\n
K\u0131z\u0131ldeniz ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019nda, enerji ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 risklerinin keskin bi\u00e7imde artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n t\u0131rmanmas\u0131, piyasa volatilitesinde ani s\u0131\u00e7ramalar g\u00f6rebilece\u011fimize i\u015faret ediyor. Bu belirsizli\u011fe kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in, her iki y\u00f6nde sert k\u0131r\u0131lmalar\u0131 yakalamaya y\u00f6nelik alt\u0131n straddle veya strangle stratejileri kullan\u0131labilir. Vadeli i\u015flemler taraf\u0131nda ise 4.450 dolar diren\u00e7 seviyesinin hemen \u00fczerinde s\u0131k\u0131 stop-loss kullan\u0131m\u0131, g\u00fcvenli liman kaynakl\u0131 ani alt\u0131n rallilerine kar\u015f\u0131 sermayeyi koruyacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Piyasa fiyatlamas\u0131 \u015fu anda Fed\u2019in Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda faizleri sabit tutma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %64 olarak g\u00f6sterse de, 2026 sonuna kadar son bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 riski h\u00e2l\u00e2 olduk\u00e7a g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Bu \u015fahin arka plan, 103,50 seviyesini test eden ABD Dolar Endeksi\u2019ni (DXY) destekleyerek k\u0131sa vadede uzun alt\u0131n pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 daha riskli hale getiriyor. Merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n yap\u0131\u015fkan enflasyona y\u00f6nelik ger\u00e7ek tolerans\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7mek i\u00e7in yakla\u015fan FOMC tutanaklar\u0131na odaklan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Teknik a\u00e7\u0131dan, %38,2 geri \u00e7ekilme seviyesine kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k gelen 4.302 dolar ana destek olarak izlenmeli. Bu seviyenin alt\u0131nda kal\u0131c\u0131 bir k\u0131r\u0131lma, 4.164 dolara do\u011fru daha derin bir geri \u00e7ekilmenin \u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7abilir ve ay\u0131 put spread\u2019leri kullanan k\u0131sa pozisyon arayanlar i\u00e7in cazip bir giri\u015f noktas\u0131 sunabilir. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, alt\u0131n 4.450 dolardaki tepe seviyesini net \u015fekilde k\u0131r\u0131p \u00fczerinde kal\u0131c\u0131l\u0131k sa\u011flamad\u0131k\u00e7a agresif uzun pozisyonlardan ka\u00e7\u0131nmak gerekir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Alt\u0131nda y\u00fckseli\u015f solukland\u0131: Dolar toparlan\u0131rken petrol-enflasyon ve 2026 Fed faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentisi bask\u0131 kuruyor. Orta Do\u011fu gerilimi volatiliteyi art\u0131r\u0131yor; 4.450-4.508 diren\u00e7, 4.302 kritik destek.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50053,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52925","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t