AUD\/USD, ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (USD) Fed\u2019in ilave s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma beklentilerinin zay\u0131flamas\u0131yla bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kalmas\u0131 sonucunda Asya saatlerinde 0,7110 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rerek \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc ard\u0131\u015f\u0131k seansta y\u00fckseldi. Temmuz ay\u0131nda ABD Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam verisindeki s\u00fcrpriz d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ve ge\u00e7en haftaki zay\u0131f t\u00fcketici enflasyonu sonras\u0131, CME FedWatch Tool\u2019a g\u00f6re bir sonraki toplant\u0131da faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 i\u00e7in z\u0131mni olas\u0131l\u0131k bir ay \u00f6nceki %47 seviyesinden %35\u2019e geriledi. Ayr\u0131 olarak, Washington\u2019un s\u00fcresi dolan bir anla\u015fmay\u0131 yenilemeye niyeti olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret etmesinin ard\u0131ndan ABD\u2013\u0130ran gerilimi yeniden g\u00fcndeme gelirken, Tahran bir anla\u015fman\u0131n h\u00e2len ula\u015f\u0131lamaz oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi ve deniz ablukas\u0131n\u0131n kald\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131s\u0131nda bulundu.<\/p>\n\n
Odak, A\u011fustos ay\u0131 Westpac T\u00fcketici G\u00fcveni endeksi ve ikinci \u00e7eyrek \u00dccret Fiyat Endeksi (Wage Price Index) d\u00e2hil Avustralya verilerine \u00e7evriliyor. \u00dccretlerin \u00e7eyreklik bazda %0,8 artmas\u0131 beklenirken, y\u0131ll\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131n 1\u00c7\u2019deki %3,3\u2019ten %3,2\u2019ye gerileyece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. RBA politika faizi vadeli i\u015flemleri, y\u0131l sonuna kadar 25 baz puanl\u0131k bir art\u0131\u015fla faizin %4,60\u2019a \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 ihtimalini %60 olarak fiyatl\u0131yor. Teknik tarafta spot, dokuz periyotluk \u00dcssel Hareketli Ortalama\u2019n\u0131n (EMA) 0,7074 ve 50 periyotluk EMA\u2019n\u0131n 0,7028 \u00fczerinde kal\u0131rken, 14 g\u00fcnl\u00fck RSI 65,84 seviyesinde.<\/p>\n\n
AUD\/USD paritesinin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentum in\u015fa etti\u011fini ve USD bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kalmaya devam ederken h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda 0,7110 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. 14 g\u00fcnl\u00fck G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi\u2019nin (RSI) 65,84 ile a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m b\u00f6lgesine yak\u0131n seyretmesi nedeniyle, t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n mevcut spot seviyelerden y\u00fckseli\u015fi kovalamaktan ka\u00e7\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Bunun yerine, k\u0131sa vadeli geri \u00e7ekilmelerde al\u0131m y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlar i\u00e7in f\u0131rsat aranmal\u0131; hedef olarak dokuz periyotluk \u00fcssel hareketli ortalama (EMA) olan 0,7074 civar\u0131ndaki yak\u0131n destek b\u00f6lgesi izlenmeli.<\/p>\n\n
Bu trendden yararlan\u0131rken k\u0131sa vadeli yatayla\u015fma riskini s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in bo\u011fa put spread\u2019lerini tercih ediyoruz. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc 50 periyotluk EMA\u2019ya yak\u0131n 0,7028 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 put opsiyonlar\u0131 sat\u0131p daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 koruyucu put\u2019lar alarak, risk net bi\u00e7imde tan\u0131ml\u0131 kal\u0131rken prim geliri elde edilebilir. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, Avustralya\u2019n\u0131n dayan\u0131kl\u0131 i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131yla da destekleniyor; i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131n\u0131n son d\u00f6nemde yakla\u015f\u0131k %4,1 ile istikrarl\u0131 seyretmesi, yurt i\u00e7i ekonominin ani RBA faiz indirimlerini gerektirmeyecek \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde sa\u011flam kald\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n\n
Faiz ortam\u0131ndaki de\u011fi\u015fimi de dikkate almak gerekiyor; CME FedWatch Tool, Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda ABD faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentisinin %35\u2019e kadar geriledi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Bu zay\u0131flayan \u015fahinlik, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki deniz ula\u015f\u0131m hatlar\u0131 \u00fczerindeki jeopolitik s\u00fcrt\u00fc\u015fmeyle birle\u015fti\u011finde, ABD Dolar\u0131 \u00fczerinde kal\u0131c\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131ya i\u015faret ediyor. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda geri \u00e7ekilmelerde k\u0131sa vadeli al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 alarak Avustralya Dolar\u0131\u2019nda uzun y\u00f6nl\u00fc e\u011filimin korunmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" S\u00fcrpriz Fed \u201c\u015fahinli\u011fi\u201d s\u00f6n\u00fcyor: AUD\/USD 0,7110\u2019da \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc g\u00fcn y\u00fckseli\u015fte. FedWatch faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %35\u2019e indi. Avustralya \u00fccret\/veri odakta; RSI 65,84. Strateji: geri \u00e7ekilmede al\u0131m, bo\u011fa put spread.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50032,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52923","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t