{"id":52920,"date":"2026-08-18T04:27:28","date_gmt":"2026-08-18T04:27:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/abd-aciklari-buyurken-ve-dolar-zayiflarken-cinin-kulce-alimlarini-artirmasiyla-altin-ve-gumus-yukseliste\/"},"modified":"2026-08-18T04:27:28","modified_gmt":"2026-08-18T04:27:28","slug":"abd-aciklari-buyurken-ve-dolar-zayiflarken-cinin-kulce-alimlarini-artirmasiyla-altin-ve-gumus-yukseliste","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/abd-aciklari-buyurken-ve-dolar-zayiflarken-cinin-kulce-alimlarini-artirmasiyla-altin-ve-gumus-yukseliste\/","title":{"rendered":"ABD a\u00e7\u0131klar\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcrken ve dolar zay\u0131flarken, \u00c7in\u2019in k\u00fcl\u00e7e al\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rmas\u0131yla alt\u0131n ve g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f y\u00fckseli\u015fte"},"content":{"rendered":"

ABD\u2019nin geni\u015fleyen mali a\u00e7\u0131klar\u0131, daha zay\u0131f bir dolar ve Fed\u2019den ilave s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma beklentilerinin zay\u0131flamas\u0131; merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n rekor Alt\u0131n birikimi ve yapay zek\u00e2 ile elektrifikasyonla ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 fiziksel kaynaklar i\u00e7in artan rekabetle ayn\u0131 d\u00f6neme denk geliyor. Piyasalarda Alt\u0131n ons ba\u015f\u0131na 4.400 dolar\u0131n, G\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f ise 66 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken, Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda bir Fed faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 i\u00e7in ima edilen olas\u0131l\u0131k bir ay \u00f6nce %51\u2019in \u00fczerindeyken %33\u2019e geriledi. ABD federal b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131, 2026 mali y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ilk 10 ay\u0131nda 1,8 trilyon dolara ula\u015ft\u0131; bu tutar, mevcut mali y\u0131lda iki ay kalm\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen 2025 mali y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n tamam\u0131ndaki a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u015fimdiden a\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n

\u00c7in, offshore servet ve beyan edilmemi\u015f yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131 gelirlerine y\u00f6nelik daha s\u0131k\u0131 uygulamalarla ek bir itici g\u00fc\u00e7 ekledi. Yeni kurallar, offshore tr\u00f6stleri hedefliyor; belirli varl\u0131klar\u0131n yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131na ta\u015f\u0131nmas\u0131 halinde kazan\u00e7lar \u00fczerinden %20\u2019lik bir y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fck ile bu yap\u0131lar \u00fczerinden elde edilen gelirin vergilendirilmesini i\u00e7eriyor. \u00c7in\u2019in alt\u0131n destekli ETF\u2019leri bu ay 14 g\u00fcn \u00fcst \u00fcste giri\u015f kaydetti; bu, Mart\u2019tan bu yana en uzun seri olurken, tek bir seansta yakla\u015f\u0131k 370 milyon dolar dahil olmak \u00fczere 1,2 milyar dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde para giri\u015fi ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Resmi talep de artt\u0131; \u00c7in Halk Bankas\u0131 (PBoC) Temmuz\u2019da 20 ton al\u0131m yaparak raporlanan rezervleri 2.366 tona y\u00fckseltti ve al\u0131mlar\u0131 21 ay \u00fcst \u00fcste s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc.<\/p>\n

T\u00fcrev Piyasas\u0131 Pozisyonlanmas\u0131 ve De\u011ferli Metaller G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc<\/h3>\n

T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda sert varl\u0131klara do\u011fru b\u00fcy\u00fck bir rotasyon i\u00e7in agresif bi\u00e7imde pozisyon almas\u0131 gerekti\u011fine inan\u0131yoruz. Alt\u0131n, g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f ve bak\u0131rda uzun vadeli al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (call) ve vadeli i\u015flem s\u00f6zle\u015fmelerinden yararlanarak, h\u0131zlanan bir makro trend piyasa konsens\u00fcs\u00fcne d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fmeden \u00f6nce yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc potansiyeli yakalayabiliriz. Mali ve jeopolitik bask\u0131lar artarken, mevcut prim seviyelerinden bu iyimser pozisyonlar\u0131 olu\u015fturma penceresi h\u0131zla kapan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcm\u00fcz, ABD dolar\u0131ndaki g\u00fc\u00e7 kayb\u0131 ve 2026 mali y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ilk on ay\u0131nda \u015fimdiden 1,8 trilyon dolara ula\u015fan \u00e7arp\u0131c\u0131 federal a\u00e7\u0131k taraf\u0131ndan g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bi\u00e7imde destekleniyor. Tarihsel olarak ABD\u2019nin bor\u00e7\/GSYH oran\u0131 %120\u2019nin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar itibari para birimindeki de\u011fer erozyonundan korunma aray\u0131\u015f\u0131yla de\u011ferli metaller uzun soluklu bo\u011fa piyasalar\u0131na girmi\u015ftir. Bu ay Fed\u2019in ilave faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na gitme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 sadece %33\u2019e inerken, emtialar i\u00e7in en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck diren\u00e7li y\u00f6n yukar\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n

Bu tezin anl\u0131k yans\u0131mas\u0131n\u0131 zaten g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz: Alt\u0131n ons ba\u015f\u0131na 4.400 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karken g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f 66 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine t\u0131rmand\u0131. Bu e\u015fikler, yava\u015flama emaresi g\u00f6stermeyen likit ve enflasyona dayan\u0131kl\u0131 varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelik daha geni\u015f bir k\u00fcresel h\u00fccumu yans\u0131t\u0131yor. T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 i\u00e7in g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015fte veya alt\u0131n vadeli i\u015flemlerinde call spread almak, \u015fu anda olduk\u00e7a asimetrik bir risk-getiri oran\u0131 sunuyor.<\/p>\n

\u00c7in\u2019in Rol\u00fc ve Sanayi Metalleri Tezi<\/h3>\n

Buna ek olarak, \u00c7in\u2019den \u00e7\u0131kan benzeri g\u00f6r\u00fclmemi\u015f sermaye g\u00f6\u00e7\u00fcn\u00fc izlemeliyiz; burada merkez bankas\u0131 k\u0131sa s\u00fcre \u00f6nce alt\u0131n al\u0131m serisini 21 aya \u00e7\u0131kararak toplam varl\u0131klar\u0131 2.366 tona ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. \u00dclkedeki yerli yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar da alt\u0131n destekli ETF\u2019lere y\u00f6neliyor; A\u011fustos 2026\u2019n\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda bu fonlara 1,2 milyar dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde giri\u015f oldu. Pekin yeni %20\u2019lik y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fcklerle offshore serveti s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131rken, bu yerli sermayenin sert varl\u0131klar d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda gidecek neredeyse hi\u00e7bir yeri kalm\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

De\u011ferli metallerin \u00f6tesinde, ciddi yap\u0131sal arz a\u00e7\u0131klar\u0131yla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya olan bak\u0131r gibi sanayi metallerini de hedeflemeliyiz. Uluslararas\u0131 Enerji Ajans\u0131 (IEA), yapay zek\u00e2 veri merkezlerinin ve elektrik \u015febekelerinin h\u0131zla geni\u015flemesi nedeniyle 2030\u2019a kadar k\u00fcresel bak\u0131r talebinin arz\u0131 4 milyon metrik tondan fazla a\u015faca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Yeni b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7ekli bir bak\u0131r madenini devreye alman\u0131n ortalama 12 ila 15 y\u0131l s\u00fcrmesi, bu arz-talep uyumsuzlu\u011funun uzun vadeli bir s\u0131k\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 garantiledi\u011fi anlam\u0131na geliyor; yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar bunu bug\u00fcnden uzun vadeli LEAP\u2019ler arac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131yla de\u011ferlendirebilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Alt\u0131nda yeni ralli mi ba\u015fl\u0131yor? ABD a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 1,8 trilyon $\u2019a t\u0131rmand\u0131, Fed s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma ihtimali %33\u2019e indi. \u00c7in\u2019in 21 ayl\u0131k alt\u0131n al\u0131m\u0131 ve ETF giri\u015fleri alt\u0131n-g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f-bak\u0131r\u0131 destekliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50022,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52920","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t