Meksika pesosu Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc ABD dolar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 zay\u0131flad\u0131; USD\/MXN yeniden 17,00\u2019nin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karak 17,03 seviyesinde i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc ve d\u00f6rt g\u00fcnl\u00fck d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f serisini sonland\u0131rd\u0131. Bu hareket, daha yumu\u015fak ABD verilerinin ilave s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma beklentilerini azaltmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti: Temmuz T\u00dcFE y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda Haziran\u2019daki %3,5\u2019ten %3,4\u2019e gerilerken, \u00dcFE ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemde %5,5\u2019ten %4,7\u2019ye indi. Perakende Sat\u0131\u015flar ise %0,2\u2019den -%0,6\u2019ya d\u00fc\u015ferek ABD Dolar Endeksi\u2019ni iki ay\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerine do\u011fru iterken, endeks sonras\u0131nda dengelendi ve %0,05 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 99,59\u2019da kald\u0131.<\/p>\n
Jeopolitik riskler de dolara destek verdi; Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki sava\u015f\u0131n seyrine ili\u015fkin belirsizlik ve Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc sona eren, bir mutabakat zapt\u0131 (MoU) kapsam\u0131ndaki 60 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ate\u015fkes \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Meksika\u2019da ge\u00e7en hafta \u00f6nemli bir veri ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 yoktu; ancak Banxico\u2019nun 20 A\u011fustos\u2019ta toplant\u0131 tutanaklar\u0131n\u0131 yay\u0131mlamas\u0131 bekleniyor. Dikkat ard\u0131ndan Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak Haziran Meksika Perakende Sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131\u2019na \u00e7evriliyor; y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %1,6\u2019dan %3,1\u2019e h\u0131zlanmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Teknik tarafta ise USD\/MXN\u2019nin 17,37 civar\u0131nda k\u00fcmelenen basit hareketli ortalamalar\u0131n alt\u0131nda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve RSI (14) g\u00f6stergesinin 30\u2019un hemen alt\u0131nda seyretti\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
20 A\u011fustos\u2019ta yay\u0131mlanacak Banxico tutanaklar\u0131na yakla\u015f\u0131rken, t\u00fcrev i\u015flemcilerinin USD\/MXN paritesinde ani oynakl\u0131k art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131 gerekiyor. Y\u00f6n tahmini yapmadan sert fiyat hareketlerini yakalamak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli opsiyon straddle stratejisi kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, Banxico\u2019nun 2026\u2019da yakla\u015f\u0131k %4,6 civar\u0131nda seyreden inat\u00e7\u0131 enflasyonu y\u00f6netmeye devam etti\u011fi bir d\u00f6nemde \u00f6zellikle i\u015flevsel olabilir.<\/p>\n
Teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, 17,37 seviyesi yak\u0131n\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir diren\u00e7 bulundu\u011funu ve ana e\u011filimin a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Orta Do\u011fu gerilimi ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 ge\u00e7ici olarak g\u00fc\u00e7lendirmi\u015f olsa da, bu y\u00fckseli\u015fi ge\u00e7ici bir d\u00fczeltme olarak de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, bu tavan seviyeden faydalanmak amac\u0131yla 17,37 civar\u0131nda \u201cout-of-the-money\u201d al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 satmay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir.<\/p>\n
Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak Meksika perakende sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 da izlemek gerekiyor; verinin y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %3,1\u2019e s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131 bekleniyor. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc perakende performans\u0131 genellikle pesoyu destekler; bu da USD\/MXN\u2019yi h\u0131zla yeniden 17,00 b\u00f6lgesine \u00e7ekebilir. A\u00e7\u0131klama \u00f6ncesinde USD\/MXN\u2019de k\u0131sa vadeli sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 almak, pesoda olas\u0131 bir toparlanmay\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck riskle de\u011ferlendirme imk\u00e2n\u0131 sunar.<\/p>\n
B\u00fcy\u00fck resimde, Meksika\u2019n\u0131n y\u00fcksek faiz oranlar\u0131 h\u00e2l\u00e2 ABD dolar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 cazip bir getiri avantaj\u0131 sa\u011fl\u0131yor. Ayr\u0131ca ge\u00e7en y\u0131l 35 milyar dolar\u0131 a\u015fan g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc do\u011frudan yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131m giri\u015fi, pesonun uzun vadeli dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 destekliyor. Bu nedenle, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda ABD dolar\u0131ndaki ge\u00e7ici y\u00fckseli\u015flerin USD\/MXN\u2019de d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyon biriktirmek i\u00e7in kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Piyasalar diken \u00fcst\u00fcnde: USD\/MXN 17,03\u2019e \u00e7\u0131karak 17,00 \u00fcst\u00fcnde tutundu. ABD\u2019de T\u00dcFE-\u00dcFE ve sat\u0131\u015flar zay\u0131f; jeopolitik riskler dolar\u0131 destekliyor. G\u00f6zler Banxico tutanaklar\u0131, Meksika perakende sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 ve opsiyon stratejilerinde.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49971,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52914","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t