Dolar Zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 Ortam\u0131nda EUR\/USD K\u0131r\u0131lma Stratejileri<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131na, paritenin 1,1614\u2019e dokunmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan kal\u0131c\u0131 bir EUR\/USD k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131na pozisyon al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. ABD Dolar Endeksi\u2019nin (DXY) ise hazirandan bu yana en zay\u0131f seviyesine yak\u0131n \u015fekilde 99,30\u2019da s\u00fcr\u00fcnmesi dikkat \u00e7ekiyor. DXY\u2019nin kritik psikolojik 100 seviyesinin alt\u0131na sarkmas\u0131yla, tarihsel veriler bu t\u00fcr hareketlerin \u00e7o\u011funlukla otomatik trend takip eden sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 tetikledi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Bu momentumu, s\u0131k\u0131 \u015fekilde s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 riskle h\u0131zl\u0131 yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc kazan\u00e7 hedeflemek \u00fczere \u201cout-of-the-money\u201d EUR\/USD al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 sat\u0131n alarak de\u011ferlendirebiliriz. <\/p>\n
Piyasalar\u0131n eyl\u00fclde Fed\u2019in pas ge\u00e7mesine %70 olas\u0131l\u0131k bi\u00e7mesiyle, \u015fahin bir Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019na (ECB) kar\u015f\u0131 para politikas\u0131 ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 ana oda\u011f\u0131m\u0131z olmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Buradan faydalanmak i\u00e7in, prim maliyetini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcrken \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda 1,1700 seviyesini hedeflemek \u00fczere EUR\/USD\u2019de \u201cbull call spread\u201d stratejilerine bak\u0131lmal\u0131. Bu stratejiyi temelde destekleyen unsur, Euro B\u00f6lgesi \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonunun %2,5\u2019te tutunmas\u0131; bu da ABD\u2019de i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc talebi so\u011furken ECB politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 faiz art\u0131rmaya y\u00f6nelik bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda b\u0131rak\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Jeopolitik Riskler ve Y\u00fcksek Etkili Veri G\u00fcndemi<\/p>\n
Bununla birlikte, \u00f6zellikle ABD-\u0130ran mutabakat zapt\u0131n\u0131n sona ermesi ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019nda ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n k\u0131s\u0131tlanmas\u0131yla jeopolitik \u201cjoker\u201d riskleri g\u00f6z ard\u0131 edilmemeli. Enerji kaynakl\u0131 enflasyonda ani bir s\u0131\u00e7ramaya kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli Brent petrol al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 veya EUR\/USD \u201cstraddle\u201d stratejileri kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Tarihsel olarak, ani enerji \u015foklar\u0131 Dolar\u2019a y\u00f6nelik defansif talebi h\u0131zla canland\u0131rarak euronun son kazan\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 bir anda tersine \u00e7evirebilir.<\/p>\n
\u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fcne bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, Euro B\u00f6lgesi HICP verisi ile FOMC tutanaklar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc piyasa oynat\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131 olacak. Bu iki etkinin birlikte yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 f\u0131rsat\u0131, ima edilen volatilitedeki sert geni\u015flemeden faydalanmak i\u00e7in EUR\/USD\u2019de \u201cstrangle\u201d sat\u0131n alarak de\u011ferlendirmeyi \u00f6neriyoruz. Son i\u015flem istatistikleri, ABD ve Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n \u00fcst d\u00fczey ekonomik verileri ayn\u0131 g\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131\u011f\u0131nda paritenin ortalama ger\u00e7ek aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n (ATR) %40\u2019a kadar geni\u015fledi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
EUR\/USD, ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n haftaya sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131yla ba\u015flamas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc dengelenmesiyle \u00f6nceki y\u00fckseli\u015flerinin bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 geri verdi. Parite, 17 Haziran\u2019dan bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviye olan 1,1614\u2019\u00fc g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra 1,1580 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY) ise 5 Haziran\u2019dan bu yana en zay\u0131f seviye olan 99,30\u2019a geriledikten sonra 99,57 civar\u0131nda seyretti. Dolar\u2019\u0131n tonu, yak\u0131n vadede Fed faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na y\u00f6nelik beklentilerin azalmas\u0131n\u0131n yan\u0131 s\u0131ra Orta Do\u011fu geriliminin k\u0131smen defansif talebi desteklemesiyle \u015fekillendi.<\/p>\n
Piyasalar art\u0131k eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131nda Fed faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 fiyatlam\u0131yor; CME FedWatch, gelecek ay faizlerin de\u011fi\u015fmeden b\u0131rak\u0131lma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %70 olarak g\u00f6steriyor. Son ABD verileri daha yumu\u015fak i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc talebine, zay\u0131flayan t\u00fcketici harcamalar\u0131na ve azalan enflasyon bask\u0131s\u0131na i\u015faret ederken, ECB\u2019nin %2 enflasyon hedefi do\u011frultusunda eyl\u00fclde bu y\u0131l ikinci kez faiz art\u0131rmas\u0131 genel beklenti. Ayr\u0131ca ABD ile \u0130ran aras\u0131ndaki 60 g\u00fcnl\u00fck mutabakat zapt\u0131 pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc kal\u0131c\u0131 bir anla\u015fma olmaks\u0131z\u0131n sona erdi ve bo\u011fazdan ge\u00e7i\u015fler a\u011f\u0131r k\u0131s\u0131tlarla s\u00fcr\u00fcyor; bu da enerji kaynakl\u0131 enflasyon risklerini g\u00fcndemde tutuyor. Dikkatler \u00e7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak nihai temmuz Euro B\u00f6lgesi HICP verisine \u00e7evrilirken, \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonun y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %2,5 olarak teyit edilmesi bekleniyor; ayn\u0131 g\u00fcn temmuz FOMC toplant\u0131s\u0131na ili\u015fkin tutanaklar da yay\u0131mlanacak.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Dolar endeksi 100 alt\u0131na sarkarken EUR\/USD 1,1614 sonras\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lma sinyali veriyor: OTM call ve bull call spread ile 1,1700 hedeflenebilir. Ancak H\u00fcrm\u00fcz riski, HICP-FOMC g\u00fcn\u00fc strangle\/straddle ve Brent call ile korunma gerektirir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49961,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52913","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t