Alt\u0131n, A\u011fustos zirvelerine yak\u0131n seyretti; XAU\/USD 4.423 dolarda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken, ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kalmas\u0131yla 4.400 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde tutundu. A\u011fustos ay\u0131 verilerinin Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131raca\u011f\u0131na ili\u015fkin beklentileri azaltmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan dolar zay\u0131flad\u0131. Son veriler, Temmuz\u2019da Perakende Sat\u0131\u015flar\u2019\u0131n ayl\u0131k bazda %0,6 geriledi\u011fini, Michigan \u00dcniversitesi T\u00fcketici G\u00fcveni endeksinin ise A\u011fustos\u2019ta 55,2\u2019den 51\u2019e d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6sterdi. Federal A\u00e7\u0131k Piyasa Komitesi\u2019nin (FOMC) Temmuz toplant\u0131s\u0131na ili\u015fkin tutanaklar\u0131 \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc yay\u0131mlamas\u0131 bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
Jeopolitik g\u00fcndem de \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karken, ABD ve \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki ate\u015fkesi 60 g\u00fcn uzatmak i\u00e7in \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair haberler gelirken, ayr\u0131 ba\u015fl\u0131klarda \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n tamamen sald\u0131r\u0131 odakl\u0131 bir pozisyona ge\u00e7ti\u011fi belirtildi (Reuters). Petrol fiyatlar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fti; Bat\u0131 Teksas tipi ham petrol (WTI) varil ba\u015f\u0131na 81 dolar civar\u0131nda seyretti. Grafiklerde metal, d\u00f6rt saatlik periyotta 20 d\u00f6nemlik SMA\u2019n\u0131n (yakla\u015f\u0131k 4.383,06 dolar) \u00fczerinde kald\u0131; 100 ve 200 d\u00f6nemlik SMA\u2019lar s\u0131ras\u0131yla 4.212,86 ve 4.145,95 dolar civar\u0131nda y\u00fckseli\u015f e\u011filiminde. Momentum g\u00f6stergeleri aras\u0131nda 14 d\u00f6nemlik RSI yakla\u015f\u0131k 61 seviyesinde yer ald\u0131. G\u00fcnl\u00fck g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde fiyat, 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA olan 4.386,20 dolar\u0131n ve 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA olan 4.195,52 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde seyrederken, 14 g\u00fcnl\u00fck RSI 66 civar\u0131nda; diren\u00e7 ise 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA yak\u0131n\u0131ndaki 4.506,84 dolar b\u00f6lgesinde i\u015faret edildi.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n, alt\u0131n 4.400 dolar seviyesinin \u00fczerinde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece y\u00fckseli\u015f yanl\u0131s\u0131 duru\u015funu korumas\u0131 ve geri \u00e7ekilmelerde al\u0131m f\u0131rsatlar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmesi gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Temmuz perakende sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131ndaki %0,6\u2019l\u0131k daralma ve t\u00fcketici g\u00fcvenindeki 51\u2019e gerilemenin tetikledi\u011fi ABD Dolar\u0131 zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131, de\u011ferli metaller i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir destek olu\u015fturuyor. Tarihsel olarak, ekonomik yava\u015flama d\u00f6nemlerinde Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131na ara vermesi, alt\u0131n\u0131n genellikle daha iyi performans g\u00f6stermesiyle sonu\u00e7lan\u0131r; ge\u00e7mi\u015f gev\u015feme d\u00f6ng\u00fclerindeki sert y\u00fckseli\u015fler buna benzer \u00f6rnekler sunuyor.<\/p>\n
Bu momentumu de\u011ferlendirmek i\u00e7in, 4.383 dolar civar\u0131ndaki yak\u0131n destek seviyesine yak\u0131n giri\u015flerle bo\u011fa call spread stratejileri veya uzun vadeli vadeli i\u015flem (long futures) pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131n kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Bu seviye, 20 d\u00f6nemlik basit hareketli ortalama taraf\u0131ndan g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bi\u00e7imde desteklendi\u011finden, 4.500 dolara do\u011fru hareketten faydalanmak isteyen al\u0131c\u0131lar i\u00e7in mant\u0131kl\u0131 bir giri\u015f b\u00f6lgesi olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. S\u0131k\u0131 risk y\u00f6netimi kapsam\u0131nda, uzun pozisyonlarda koruyucu zarar-kes (stop-loss) emirleri 4.386 dolardaki kritik 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalaman\u0131n hemen alt\u0131na yerle\u015ftirilebilir.<\/p>\n
ABD ile \u0130ran aras\u0131ndaki de\u011fi\u015fen askeri duru\u015flar gibi jeopolitik belirsizlikler, alt\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fcvenli liman cazibesini desteklemeye devam ediyor. Sekt\u00f6r istatistikleri, k\u00fcresel merkez bankas\u0131 al\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n tarihsel olarak y\u00fcksek seyretti\u011fini ve sistemik enflasyona kar\u015f\u0131 korunma amac\u0131yla net al\u0131mlar\u0131n y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda istikrarl\u0131 \u015fekilde 1.000 tonu a\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bu \u00c7ar\u015famba yay\u0131mlanacak FOMC tutanaklar\u0131n\u0131n yak\u0131ndan izlenmesini \u00f6neriyoruz; uzun s\u00fcreli bir faiz duraklamas\u0131na i\u015faret eden herhangi bir mesaj, 4.506 dolar diren\u00e7 seviyesinin hedeflenmesi i\u00e7in gerekli momentumu tetikleyebilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Alt\u0131nda kritik e\u015fik: XAU\/USD 4.423\u2019te, 4.400 \u00fcst\u00fcnde tutunuyor. Zay\u0131f ABD verileri dolar bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131, Fed faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentisi azald\u0131. Teknikte hedef 4.506, FOMC tutanaklar\u0131 izleniyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50174,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52909","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t