Andrew Maguire ve g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f analisti Peter Krauth, Ocak ay\u0131ndaki g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f fiyatlar\u0131ndaki sert d\u00fczeltmeyi ve piyasan\u0131n daha geni\u015f konumlanmas\u0131n\u0131 ele al\u0131yor. Program, g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn neredeyse bir y\u0131ld\u0131r 50 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde tutunmas\u0131n\u0131 temel bir fiyat davran\u0131\u015f\u0131 olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131rken, son geri \u00e7ekilmeyi olas\u0131 bir \u201cay\u0131 tuza\u011f\u0131\u201d (bear trap) olarak \u00e7er\u00e7eveliyor. Ayr\u0131ca, g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f madencili\u011finin daha geni\u015f emtia\/kaynaklar piyasas\u0131 i\u00e7inde k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck bir segment olarak kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 fikrini ve talep ya da sermaye tahsisindeki de\u011fi\u015fimlerin fiyat hassasiyeti \u00fczerindeki etkilerini de i\u015fliyor.<\/p>\n
Tart\u0131\u015fma; sekt\u00f6r dinamikleri ve sermaye ak\u0131\u015flar\u0131na y\u00f6neliyor; kurumsal paran\u0131n g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015fe girmeye ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f madencilerinin S&P\u2019deki di\u011fer t\u00fcm sekt\u00f6rlerden daha iyi performans g\u00f6steren nakit ak\u0131\u015flar\u0131 \u00fcretti\u011fi iddialar\u0131na yer veriliyor. Krauth\u2019un 56 dolar seviyesinde uzun (long) pozisyon ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtiliyor ve g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f i\u00e7in \u201cyar\u0131m milyar dolar\u0131n\u201d kenarda bekledi\u011fi ifade ediliyor. Talep taraf\u0131nda; g\u00fcne\u015f enerjisi kullan\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n art\u0131\u015f\u0131, bak\u0131r\u0131n ikamesi ve Asya\u2019daki alt\u0131n piyasas\u0131ndan gelen yans\u0131malar (spillover) \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131l\u0131rken, teknik analistlerin g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015fteki kurulum\/teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc nas\u0131l okudu\u011funa y\u00f6nelik ele\u015ftiriler de dile getiriliyor.<\/p>\n
G\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn 50 dolar seviyesinin \u00fczerinde sa\u011flam duru\u015funu korumas\u0131yla g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir konsolidasyon g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; bu e\u015fik, neredeyse bir y\u0131ld\u0131r muhafaza edilen bir fiyat band\u0131 niteli\u011finde. Ocak ay\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclen dramatik d\u00fczeltmeye ra\u011fmen, bu d\u00f6nemin bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ba\u015flang\u0131c\u0131ndan ziyade dev bir ay\u0131 tuza\u011f\u0131 oldu\u011fu anla\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor. T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n, piyasa yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketlenmeden \u00f6nce bu istikrarl\u0131 taban\u0131 kullanarak uzun pozisyon in\u015fa etmesi gerekti\u011fine inan\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n
G\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcz, b\u00fcy\u00fck bir yap\u0131sal arz a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131yla da destekleniyor: Son veriler, k\u00fcresel g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f talebinin arz\u0131 240 milyon onsun \u00fczerinde a\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Bunun \u00f6nemli bir k\u0131sm\u0131, yaln\u0131zca bu y\u0131l 230 milyon onsun \u00fczerinde g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f t\u00fcketmesi beklenen g\u00fcne\u015f enerjisi sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnden kaynaklan\u0131yor. Bu s\u0131k\u0131 arz ko\u015fullar\u0131ndan yararlanmak i\u00e7in, kald\u0131ra\u00e7 etkisini maksimize etmek ad\u0131na paran\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda (out-of-the-money) al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (call) al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Fiziki g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyrini korurken, g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f madencilik hisseleri geride kald\u0131 ve belirgin bir \u201cyakalama\u201d (catch-up) i\u015flemine aday g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Bu \u015firketler, S&P\u2019deki \u00e7o\u011fu sekt\u00f6r\u00fc geride b\u0131rakan ola\u011fan\u00fcst\u00fc nakit ak\u0131\u015flar\u0131 \u00fcretmesine ra\u011fmen, de\u011ferlemeleri tarihsel olarak d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerde kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Kurumsal paran\u0131n yakla\u015fan rotasyonundan faydalanmak i\u00e7in, madencilik ETF\u2019lerinde y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc dikey spread stratejileriyle i\u015flem yap\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca Asya borsalar\u0131nda y\u00fckselen fiziki primleri de izliyoruz; bu primler, Bat\u0131\u2019daki vadeli i\u015flem fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 sessizce yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekiyor. Yakla\u015f\u0131k yar\u0131m milyar dolarl\u0131k kurumsal nakdin kenarda bekledi\u011fi bir ortamda, olas\u0131 ani bir k\u0131r\u0131lma muhtemelen \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck bir short squeeze\u2019i tetikleyecektir. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda, bu patlay\u0131c\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fime haz\u0131rlanmak \u00fczere vadeli kontratlarda geri \u00e7ekilmelerde al\u0131m yap\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Ocak\u2019taki sert g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f d\u00fczeltmesi \u201cay\u0131 tuza\u011f\u0131\u201d m\u0131? Maguire-Krauth, 50$ \u00fcst\u00fc taban\u0131, 240 mn ons arz a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, g\u00fcne\u015f talebini, 56$ longu ve kurumsal rotasyonla olas\u0131 short squeeze riskini vurguluyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50139,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52908","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t