Sterlin, piyasalar\u0131n beklentilerin alt\u0131nda gelen ABD enflasyon verilerini sindirmesiyle pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc dolara kar\u015f\u0131 %0,14 y\u00fckseldi; GBP\/USD, \u00fc\u00e7 ay\u0131n zirvesi olan 1,3571\u2019i g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra 1,3552 seviyesinde i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Ge\u00e7en hafta boyunca gerileyen ABD Hazine tahvili getirileri, Fed\u2019in eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmaya gitmeyece\u011fi beklentilerini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi. Fiyatlamalar faizlerin de\u011fi\u015fmeden kalma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %69\u2019a i\u015faret ederken, aral\u0131k ay\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f i\u00e7in %66 ihtimal g\u00f6steriyor. ABD Dolar Endeksi %0,15 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 99,48\u2019e gerilerken, \u0130ran D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n \u0130slamabad anla\u015fmas\u0131na ili\u015fkin a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan jeopolitik ba\u015fl\u0131klar g\u00fcndemde kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc; ABD-\u0130ran geriliminde olas\u0131 bir t\u0131rman\u0131\u015f, daha y\u00fcksek enflasyon beklentileri ve getiriler kanal\u0131yla dolar\u0131 destekleyebilir.<\/p>\n\n
G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc gelen haziran b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin ard\u0131ndan dikkatler \u015fimdi Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k istihdam ve fiyat verilerine \u00e7evrildi. ILO i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131n\u0131n, hazirana kadar olan \u00fc\u00e7 ayl\u0131k d\u00f6nemde %4,9\u2019dan %4,8\u2019e gerilemesi bekleniyor; Claimant Count Change\u2019in ise 6,7 bin\u2019den 11,2 bin\u2019e y\u00fckselmesi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Temmuz T\u00dcFE\u2019nin ayl\u0131k bazda %0,1\u2019den %0,3\u2019e, y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %2,6\u2019dan %2,9\u2019a \u00e7\u0131kaca\u011f\u0131 tahmin edilirken; \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE\u2019nin %2,6\u2019dan %2,5\u2019e gerilemesi bekleniyor. Grafiklerde GBP\/USD 1,3561 civar\u0131nda seyrederken, RSI (14) 65\u2019e yak\u0131n; destek seviyeleri 1,3504, 1,3416, 1,3378 ve 1,3354\u2019te, diren\u00e7 ise 1,3600 civar\u0131nda bulunuyor.<\/p>\n\n
T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n, yakla\u015fan Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k ekonomik verileri \u00f6ncesinde k\u0131sa vadeli opsiyon stratejileri kullanarak GBP\/USD paritesinde artan volatiliteye haz\u0131rlanmalar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Parite \u015fu anda \u00fc\u00e7 ay\u0131n zirvesi olan 1,3552 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken, kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 cari fiyata yak\u0131n (near-the-money) straddle al\u0131m\u0131 belirgin fiyat sal\u0131n\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 yakalamam\u0131za yard\u0131mc\u0131 olabilir. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, yakla\u015fan istihdam ve enflasyon verilerinin sterlini yukar\u0131 ya da a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 itmesine bak\u0131lmaks\u0131z\u0131n sert hareketlerden faydalanma imk\u00e2n\u0131 sunar.<\/p>\n\n
Son makro g\u00f6stergeler bu temkinli ancak f\u0131rsat odakl\u0131 duru\u015fu destekliyor; \u00f6zellikle Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019ta Claimant Count\u2019un 11,2 bin\u2019e y\u00fckselmesi ve y\u0131ll\u0131k T\u00dcFE\u2019nin %2,9\u2019a t\u0131rmanmas\u0131 beklentileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Tarihsel olarak man\u015fet enflasyon h\u0131zlan\u0131rken \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonun geriledi\u011fi d\u00f6nemlerde\u2014bu senaryoda \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE\u2019nin %2,5\u2019e inmesi bekleniyor\u2014d\u00f6viz piyasalar\u0131nda pozisyonlanma h\u0131zl\u0131 ve d\u00fczensiz de\u011fi\u015fimler g\u00f6sterebilir. Bunu, Fed\u2019in faizleri sabit tutma y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki %69\u2019luk z\u0131mni olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131yla birlikte de\u011ferlendirmek gerekir; bu durum ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 ani a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketlere a\u00e7\u0131k b\u0131rak\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n
Teknik a\u00e7\u0131dan, spot piyasada 1,3416 ile 1,3504 aras\u0131ndaki g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc destek k\u00fcmesiyle uyumlu kilit t\u00fcrev seviyelerine odaklan\u0131lmal\u0131. Stratejik olarak, 1,3378\u2019deki basit hareketli ortalaman\u0131n alt\u0131nda put opsiyonu yazmak, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riski s\u0131n\u0131rlarken prim toplama a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan cazip bir f\u0131rsat sunuyor. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k GBP\/USD\u2019nin 1,3600 direncini k\u0131rmas\u0131 halinde, uzun call opsiyonu pozisyonu almak, y\u00fcksek pe\u015fin sermaye ba\u011flamadan y\u00fckseli\u015f ivmesiyle yeni zirvelere do\u011fru hareketten yararlanmay\u0131 sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n\n
Son olarak, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki s\u00fcregelen jeopolitik gerilimleri g\u00f6z ard\u0131 edemeyiz; bu gerilimler dolar lehine ani \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d ak\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 tetikleyebilir. Portf\u00f6yleri sert bir d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 korumak i\u00e7in, hedge ama\u00e7l\u0131 ucuz, kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 piyasan\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda (out-of-the-money) USD call opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n elde tutulmas\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz. Bu iki ayakl\u0131 strateji, sterlinin yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentumuna pozisyon almay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcrken, beklenmedik k\u00fcresel arz \u015foklar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 da yal\u0131t\u0131m sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Sterlin, zay\u0131f ABD enflasyonu ve d\u00fc\u015fen tahvil getirileriyle dolara kar\u015f\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lenerek GBP\/USD\u2019yi 1,3550\u2019ye ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. G\u00f6zler UK istihdam-T\u00dcFE\u2019de; 1,3600 diren\u00e7, 1,3504 destek. Opsiyonda straddle\/hedge \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50045,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52906","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t