USD\/JPY, Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc erken saatlerdeki sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan toparland\u0131; Japon Yeni, ABD Dolar\u0131 zay\u0131f seyrini korusa da ivme kazanamad\u0131. Parite yaz\u0131n\u0131n kaleme al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u0131rada 159,25 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyordu ve g\u00fcn i\u00e7i en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck 158,85 seviyesinden toparland\u0131. Yak\u0131n zamanda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen Japonya\u2013ABD ortak m\u00fcdahalesi USD\/JPY\u2019yi k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli\u011fine 155,00\u2019e do\u011fru itmi\u015fti; ancak bu hareket, kurun d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn \u00f6nemli bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 geri almas\u0131yla s\u00f6n\u00fcmlendi.<\/p>\n
Japon devlet tahvili getirileri, Yeni\u2019ndeki zay\u0131fl\u0131k ve y\u00fcksek enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n enflasyon g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc bozmas\u0131yla onlarca y\u0131l\u0131n zirvelerine t\u0131rmand\u0131. Ortado\u011fu\u2019daki gerilimler ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan ge\u00e7i\u015flerin k\u0131s\u0131tlanmas\u0131 da petrol ve do\u011falgaz fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fcksek tutarak bu tabloyu peki\u015ftiriyor. Piyasalar, Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoJ) eyl\u00fclde faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na gidebilece\u011fini fiyatl\u0131yor; zira 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k Japon devlet tahvili getirisi Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc %2,93\u2019e \u00e7\u0131karak 1996\u2019dan bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyeyi g\u00f6rd\u00fc. B\u00fcy\u00fcme verileri ise daha zay\u0131ft\u0131: ikinci \u00e7eyrek GSYH \u00e7eyreklik bazda %0,3 artt\u0131 (beklenti %0,5, \u00f6nceki %0,5), y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f b\u00fcy\u00fcme %1,1\u2019e yava\u015flad\u0131 (beklenti %2,0, \u00f6nceki %1,8). ABD\u2019de ise yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar art\u0131k Fed\u2019in eyl\u00fclde faizleri sabit tutaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor; m\u00fcdahale riski de USD\/JPY\u2019yi 160 seviyesinin alt\u0131nda tutuyor.<\/p>\n
USD\/JPY\u2019nin 160 psikolojik tavan\u0131n\u0131n hemen alt\u0131nda, kritik 159,25 seviyesine yak\u0131n seyretti\u011fi bu ortamda t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n artan oynakl\u0131\u011fa haz\u0131rlanmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Ge\u00e7mi\u015fteki ortak m\u00fcdahalelere ra\u011fmen Yeni\u2019nin zorlanmas\u0131, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda ani bir resmi m\u00fcdahale riskini son derece y\u00fcksek tutuyor. Buna kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in, yetkililerin piyasaya girmesi halinde g\u00f6r\u00fclebilecek sert bir a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 hareketi s\u0131n\u0131rlamak amac\u0131yla k\u0131sa vadeli (short-dated) sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz.<\/p>\n
Tarihsel kal\u0131plara bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, Japonya 2024 ilkbahar\u0131nda para birimini savunmak i\u00e7in rekor 9,8 trilyon yen (yakla\u015f\u0131k 62 milyar dolar) harcad\u0131; bu da otoritelerin bu e\u015fiklere yak\u0131n ne kadar agresif olabildi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Benzer bir m\u00fcdahale ger\u00e7ekle\u015firse spot fiyatlar h\u0131zla d\u00fc\u015febilir ve kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 spotun alt\u0131nda olan (out-of-the-money) put opsiyonlar\u0131 olduk\u00e7a k\u00e2rl\u0131 hale gelebilir. A\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlanma i\u00e7in 160,50\u2019nin hemen \u00fczerinde knock-out s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131 bulunan bariyer opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n, maliyet-etkin bir yap\u0131 sundu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Makro g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k Japon tahvil getirisinin %2,93 ile uzun d\u00f6nem zirvesine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131yla daha da karma\u015f\u0131k hale geliyor. Daha y\u00fcksek getiriler normalde para birimini desteklese de, Japonya\u2019n\u0131n %250\u2019nin \u00fczerindeki \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek bor\u00e7\/GSYH oran\u0131, getiriler y\u00fckseldik\u00e7e mali endi\u015feleri art\u0131r\u0131yor ve Yeni\u2019nin toparlanmas\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor. BoJ\u2019un eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131na haz\u0131rlanmas\u0131yla ABD ve Japonya getirileri aras\u0131ndaki fark\u0131n daralmas\u0131ndan faydalanmak i\u00e7in faiz swaplar\u0131n\u0131n kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
BoJ\u2019un eyl\u00fclde faiz art\u0131rmas\u0131, Fed\u2019in ise sabit kalmas\u0131 beklentisi yayg\u0131nla\u015ft\u0131k\u00e7a ima edilen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n y\u00fckselmesi muhtemel. Y\u00f6n tahmini yapmak zorunda kalmadan beklenen fiyat sal\u0131n\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 yakalamak i\u00e7in uzun straddle i\u015flemlerini \u00f6neriyoruz. Bu strateji, ister bir politika de\u011fi\u015fimi ister ani bir piyasa m\u00fcdahalesi kaynakl\u0131 olsun, b\u00fcy\u00fck hareketlerden kazan\u00e7 elde etmemizi sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" USD\/JPY 159,25\u2019te 160 e\u015fi\u011fine dayand\u0131: Yen g\u00fc\u00e7s\u00fcz, m\u00fcdahale riski y\u00fcksek. Japon 10Y %2,93\u2019le zirvede, BoJ eyl\u00fclde art\u0131\u015fa yak\u0131n. Opsiyonlarda k\u0131sa put, bariyer, straddle \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50035,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52905","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t