EUR\/CAD pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc 1,6070 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rerek %0,11 y\u00fckseldi ve beklentilerin \u00fczerinde gelen Kanada enflasyon verisinin Kanada Dolar\u0131\u2019na s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 da olsa destek sa\u011flamas\u0131na ra\u011fmen daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyrini korudu. Kanada T\u00dcFE\u2019si temmuzda y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %3\u2019e y\u00fckselerek hazirandaki %2,8 seviyesinin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; ayl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f ise %0,5 oldu. Kanada Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoC) \u00e7ekirdek g\u00f6stergesi y\u0131ll\u0131k %2,3 ve ayl\u0131k %0,2 artt\u0131; bankan\u0131n yak\u0131ndan izledi\u011fi di\u011fer \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fctlerde de g\u00fc\u00e7lenme g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc: Ortak (Common) T\u00dcFE %2,6\u2019dan %2,7\u2019ye, K\u0131rp\u0131lm\u0131\u015f (Trimmed) T\u00dcFE %1,8\u2019den %1,9\u2019a ve Medyan (Median) T\u00dcFE %1,9\u2019dan %2\u2019ye y\u00fckseldi. Man\u015fet enflasyonu benzin ve seyahat turlar\u0131 yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131rken, marketten al\u0131nan g\u0131dada enflasyonun yava\u015flamas\u0131 art\u0131\u015f\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Kanada Dolar\u0131\u2019ndaki hareketin devam\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131; zira euro, enflasyonun h\u00e2l\u00e2 %2 hedefinin \u00fczerinde seyretmesi nedeniyle ECB\u2019nin ilave s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmaya gidebilece\u011fi beklentilerinden destek buldu. Euro B\u00f6lgesi GSYH\u2019si \u00f6nceki d\u00f6nemdeki durgunlu\u011fun ard\u0131ndan ikinci \u00e7eyrekte yeniden b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye d\u00f6nerken, istihdam da \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 h\u0131zda artmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc; bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131 i\u00e7in 25 baz puanl\u0131k faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 masada tutuyor. Nordea, mevduat faizinin %3\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kaca\u011f\u0131 \u015fekilde \u00fc\u00e7 adet daha 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f bekliyor; ancak art\u0131k art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n eyl\u00fcl, aral\u0131k ve 2027 mart \u00e7eyreklerine yay\u0131laca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor ve jeopolitik geli\u015fmeleri belirleyici risk fakt\u00f6r\u00fc olarak i\u015faret ediyor. Kurum ayr\u0131ca, y\u00fcksek tahvil arz\u0131, Eurosystem bilan\u00e7o k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcltmesi ve daha y\u00fcksek enflasyon risk primi nedeniyle uzun vadeli tahvil getirilerinin y\u00fckselmesini bekliyor.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda EUR\/CAD\u2019nin 1,6070 civar\u0131nda pozitif e\u011filimini korumas\u0131 nedeniyle t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n EUR\/CAD al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131na odaklanmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Kanada\u2019da temmuz enflasyonunun y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda beklentilerin \u00fczerinde %3\u2019e y\u00fckselmesine kar\u015f\u0131n, euronun momentumu olduk\u00e7a diren\u00e7li kal\u0131yor. Bu kal\u0131c\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7, Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde olumlu b\u00fcy\u00fcme g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc ve ECB\u2019nin bu eyl\u00fclde 25 baz puanl\u0131k faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 yapaca\u011f\u0131na y\u00f6nelik g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc beklentilerle destekleniyor.<\/p>\n
Tarihsel olarak, EUR\/CAD\u2019nin ayr\u0131\u015fan merkez bankas\u0131 politikalar\u0131 e\u015fli\u011finde 1,6000 e\u015fi\u011finin \u00fczerinde kal\u0131c\u0131 bir k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m sergilemesi, paritenin s\u0131kl\u0131kla 1,6300 seviyesine do\u011fru ralli yapmas\u0131yla sonu\u00e7lan\u0131yor. H\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda paritenin 1 ayl\u0131k ima edilen volatilitesi yakla\u015f\u0131k %7,1 ile yatay seyretti\u011finden, uzun opsiyon stratejileri g\u00f6rece makul maliyetli g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Buna ek olarak, Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019ndeki g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc istihdam verileri, Avrupa ekonomisinin daha uzun s\u00fcre daha y\u00fcksek faizleri ta\u015f\u0131yabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Bu trendden faydalan\u0131rken maksimum riski tan\u0131mlamak ad\u0131na 1,6150 ve 1,6300 kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 hedefleyen bo\u011fa call spread\u2019lerinin uygulanmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, BoC\u2019nin \u00e7ekirdek enflasyondaki y\u00fckseli\u015fin (\u015fu anda y\u0131ll\u0131k %2,3) ani CAD g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesini tetiklemesi durumunda koruma sa\u011flar. ECB\u2019nin faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 patikas\u0131n\u0131n 2027 mart\u0131na kadar uzamas\u0131 beklendi\u011finden, yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc trendin devam\u0131 i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli bir alan oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" S\u00fcrpriz Kanada enflasyonu CAD\u2019\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 desteklerken EUR\/CAD 1,6070\u2019te g\u00fc\u00e7 koruyor. ECB\u2019nin olas\u0131 eyl\u00fcl 25 bp art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve b\u00fcy\u00fcme g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc euroyu destekliyor; strateji: 1,6150-1,6300 bo\u011fa call spread.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49971,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52899","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t