Kanada\u2019n\u0131n t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksi (T\u00dcFE) \u00e7ekirdek g\u00f6stergesi Temmuz ay\u0131nda ayl\u0131k bazda de\u011fi\u015fmeyerek %0,2 seviyesinde kald\u0131. Bu veri, altta yatan t\u00fcketici fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n bir \u00f6nceki ayla ayn\u0131 h\u0131zda artt\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ederken, k\u0131sa vadeli ivmenin de istikrarl\u0131 seyretti\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n\n
Ayl\u0131k bazda, oynak kalemler d\u0131\u015far\u0131da b\u0131rak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda %0,2\u2019lik \u00e7ekirdek oran, fiyatlarda \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 art\u0131\u015f\u0131n s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc ima ediyor. Temmuz\u2019un bir \u00f6nceki ay\u0131n %0,2\u2019lik art\u0131\u015f\u0131yla ayn\u0131 gelmesi, son iki ayl\u0131k d\u00f6nemde \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131n istikrarl\u0131 oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n\n
Kanada\u2019da \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE\u2019nin Temmuz i\u00e7in ayl\u0131k bazda %0,2\u2019de sabit kalmas\u0131yla, Kanada Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoC) hedefiyle uyumlu net bir fiyat istikrar\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu dura\u011fan okuma, Kanada ekonomisi genelinde enflasyonist bask\u0131lar\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bi\u00e7imde kontrol alt\u0131nda oldu\u011funa dair beklentileri peki\u015ftiriyor. T\u00fcrev piyasa yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu tutarl\u0131l\u0131k, s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131n\u0131n sonuna yakla\u015f\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve oda\u011f\u0131n tamamen yakla\u015fan faiz indirimlerinin h\u0131z\u0131na kayd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n\n
Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n, k\u0131sa vadeli faiz piyasalar\u0131nda BoC\u2019nin bir sonraki toplant\u0131s\u0131nda 25 baz puanl\u0131k faiz indiriminin y\u00fcksek olas\u0131l\u0131kla fiyatlanmas\u0131na g\u00f6re pozisyon almas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. H\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda gecelik endeks swaplar\u0131 (OIS), indirim i\u00e7in %70\u2019in \u00fczerinde z\u0131mni olas\u0131l\u0131\u011fa i\u015faret ediyor; bu da Canadian Overnight Repo Rate Average (CORRA) vadeli i\u015flemlerinde uzun pozisyonlar\u0131 olduk\u00e7a cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor. K\u0131sa vadeli getiriler a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131yla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131yayken, getiri e\u011frisinin dikle\u015fmesine (curve steepening) y\u00f6nelik stratejilerin \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc sonu\u00e7lar \u00fcretmesi bekleniyor.<\/p>\n\n
D\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131nda, Kanada ile ABD aras\u0131ndaki faiz fark\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131ld\u0131k\u00e7a Kanada dolar\u0131n\u0131n zay\u0131flamas\u0131 muhtemel g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. \u201cLoonie\u201dnin dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda beklenen de\u011fer kayb\u0131ndan faydalanmak i\u00e7in, bir ay vadeli CAD sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Tarihsel olarak, Kanada enflasyonu rahat seyrederken ABD ekonomisi dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 korudu\u011funda USD\/CAD paritesi yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareket ederek 1,38 seviyesine do\u011fru t\u0131rmanma e\u011filiminde oluyor; bu da opsiyon yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir hedef sunuyor.<\/p>\n\n
CAD\u2019e ba\u011fl\u0131 opsiyonlarda z\u0131mni volatilite \u015fu anda g\u00f6rece d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerde i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor; bu da koruma ama\u00e7l\u0131 ya da spek\u00fclatif pozisyonlar i\u00e7in uygun maliyetli bir giri\u015f noktas\u0131 sa\u011fl\u0131yor. Prim erimesini s\u0131n\u0131rlarken ani kur hareketlerine kar\u015f\u0131 pozisyon ta\u015f\u0131may\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmek i\u00e7in USD\/CAD \u00fczerinde al\u0131m spread\u2019lerinin (call spread) kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz. Son d\u00f6nemde %3,6 civar\u0131nda seyreden Kanada 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k devlet tahvili getirisinin izlenmesi, bu i\u015flemlerin zamanlamas\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan en iyi ger\u00e7ek zamanl\u0131 sinyali sa\u011flayacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Kanada \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE Temmuz\u2019da %0,2 ile sabit: BoC\u2019nin faiz indirimine yakla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 fiyatlan\u0131yor. OIS\u2019te 25 bp indirim olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %70+. E\u011fri dikle\u015fmesi, CORRA long, USD\/CAD\u2019de 1,38 hedefli CAD put \u00f6neriliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49985,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52896","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t