Alt\u0131n, Eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131nda Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131raca\u011f\u0131na y\u00f6nelik beklentilerin zay\u0131flamas\u0131yla ABD Dolar\u0131 bask\u0131 alt\u0131ndayken, Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kazan\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 korudu ancak g\u00fcn i\u00e7indeki erken y\u00fckseli\u015fi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmekte zorland\u0131. XAU\/USD, Asya seans\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclen 4.416 dolarl\u0131k zirvenin ard\u0131ndan 4.401 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. CME FedWatch fiyatlamas\u0131, gelecek ay politikan\u0131n sabit kalma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k %70\u2019e y\u00fckseldi\u011fine i\u015faret etti; bu oran bir hafta \u00f6nce %48 seviyesindeydi. Daha zay\u0131f ABD verileri bu de\u011fi\u015fimi destekledi: Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam Temmuz\u2019da geriledi, Perakende Sat\u0131\u015flar ayl\u0131k bazda d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc ve hem T\u00dcFE hem de \u00dcFE enflasyonu y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda \u0131l\u0131mlad\u0131.<\/p>\n
K\u0131sa vadeli ABD Hazine tahvili getirileri gerilerken, uzun vadeliler son zirvelere yak\u0131n seyrini korudu; bu durum getiri e\u011frisini dikle\u015ftirerek kur cephesindeki tabloyu daha karma\u015f\u0131k hale getirdi. Dolar Endeksi (DXY), 5 Haziran\u2019dan bu yana en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviye olan 99,30\u2019u g\u00f6rmesinin ard\u0131ndan 99,45 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Jeopolitik geli\u015fmeler de g\u00fcndemde kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc: ABD ile \u0130ran aras\u0131nda Haziran\u2019da imzalanan 60 g\u00fcnl\u00fck mutabakat zapt\u0131 Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc anla\u015fma olmaks\u0131z\u0131n sona erdi. Bu durum petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fcksek tutarken enflasyon g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcne y\u00f6nelik belirsizli\u011fi art\u0131rd\u0131. Grafik taraf\u0131nda spot, 4.385 dolardaki 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck basit hareketli ortalaman\u0131n (SMA) \u00fczerinde tutunurken, RSI 65\u2019e yak\u0131n ve MACD pozitif seyretti. Destekler 4.200 dolar, 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019n\u0131n bulundu\u011fu 4.147 dolar ve 4.000 dolar seviyelerinde; diren\u00e7 ise 4.506 dolardaki 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019da.<\/p>\n
Alt\u0131n\u0131n 4.401 dolar civar\u0131nda seyretti\u011fi bu d\u00f6nemde, t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalar i\u00e7in temkinli bi\u00e7imde y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir strateji benimsemesini \u00f6neriyoruz. ABD Dolar Endeksi\u2019nin 99,45 ile birka\u00e7 ay\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesine gerilemesi, makro ortam\u0131n de\u011ferli metalleri g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bi\u00e7imde destekledi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. \u00d6zellikle 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck basit hareketli ortalaman\u0131n 4.385 dolarda sa\u011flam bir taban olu\u015fturmas\u0131yla, geri \u00e7ekilmelerde uzun pozisyon aray\u0131\u015f\u0131nda olunmal\u0131.<\/p>\n
Bu y\u00fckseli\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc, faiz beklentilerindeki h\u0131zl\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fimle de destekleniyor. CME FedWatch verisi, Fed\u2019in Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de faizi sabit tutma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %70 olarak g\u00f6steriyor. Tarihsel olarak, 2006 ve 2019 gibi Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131na ara verdi\u011fi d\u00f6ng\u00fclerde alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131 takip eden alt\u0131 ayda ortalama %8 ila %12 y\u00fckseldi. T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 bu e\u011filimden, 4.506 dolardaki 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck basit hareketli ortalamay\u0131 hedefleyen yak\u0131n vadeli al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131yla faydalanabilir.<\/p>\n
Bununla birlikte, bug\u00fcn 60 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ABD-\u0130ran mutabakat zapt\u0131n\u0131n resmi bir \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm olmaks\u0131z\u0131n sona ermesi nedeniyle jeopolitik oynakl\u0131\u011fa kar\u015f\u0131 son derece dikkatli olunmal\u0131. Bu diplomatik \u00e7\u0131kmaz, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki enerji koridorlar\u0131n\u0131 sekteye u\u011fratma riski ta\u015f\u0131yor; bu da ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 daha yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131yarak k\u00fcresel enflasyon bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 yeniden art\u0131rabilir. Ani oynakl\u0131\u011fa kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in, prim riskini s\u0131n\u0131rlarken olas\u0131 yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131mlardan faydalanmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcren bo\u011fa call spread stratejisinin kullan\u0131lmas\u0131 \u00f6nerilir.<\/p>\n
Teknik a\u00e7\u0131dan, g\u00fcnl\u00fck G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi (RSI) 65 seviyesinde ve bu da alt\u0131n a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m b\u00f6lgesine girmeden \u00f6nce yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n i\u00e7in h\u00e2l\u00e2 alan oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. Ani piyasa d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015flerine kar\u015f\u0131 sermayeyi korumak ad\u0131na, kritik yap\u0131sal destek olan 4.200 dolar\u0131n hemen alt\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131 zarar-kes (stop-loss) emirleri konumland\u0131r\u0131lmal\u0131. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda bu y\u00fcksek riskli ortamda etkin \u015fekilde ilerlemek i\u00e7in, uzun vadeli i\u015flem (futures) pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131n koruyucu sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131yla dengelenmesi uygun olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Fed\u2019in Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de frene basma ihtimali %70\u2019e \u00e7\u0131k\u0131nca Dolar zay\u0131flad\u0131, alt\u0131n 4.401 dolarda tutundu. Teknikler pozitif; hedef 4.506. Jeopolitik risk y\u00fcksek, t\u00fcrevde temkinli y\u00fckseli\u015f \u00f6nerilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50128,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52891","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t