ICE Brent, Asya\u2019n\u0131n erken saatlerindeki i\u015flemlerde varil ba\u015f\u0131na 90 dolar\u0131n hemen alt\u0131nda seyretti. Pazartesi g\u00fcnk\u00fc y\u00fckseli\u015fin \u00fczerine in\u015fa eden fiyatlar, L\u00fcbnan\u2019da \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n yeniden alevlenmesi ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019nda gemilere y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131 haberlerinin arz riski endi\u015felerini y\u00fcksek tutmas\u0131yla destek buldu. Petrol vadeli i\u015flemlerinde pozisyonlanma daha \u201cbo\u011fa\u201d tarafa d\u00f6nd\u00fc: Para y\u00f6neticileri, ge\u00e7en sal\u0131 itibar\u0131yla ICE Brent\u2019te net uzun pozisyonlar\u0131 76.026 lot art\u0131rarak 240.748 lote \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131; br\u00fct uzunlar ise haftal\u0131k bazda 51.818 lot y\u00fckseldi. NYMEX WTI\u2019da net uzunlar 2.665 lot artarak 103.715 lote \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. ABD upstream faaliyetleri de g\u00fc\u00e7lendi; Baker Hughes petrol sondaj kulesi say\u0131s\u0131 1 art\u0131\u015fla 455\u2019e y\u00fckselirken, ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemine g\u00f6re 43 adet daha y\u00fcksek seviyede kald\u0131. EIA, ABD ham petrol \u00fcretiminin 2026\u2019da ortalama 13,8 milyon varil\/g\u00fcn olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 (2025\u2019te 13,6 milyon varil\/g\u00fcn) ve 2027\u2019de 14,2 milyon varil\/g\u00fcne y\u00fckselece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Metallerde, LME bak\u0131r %1,7 y\u00fckselerek rekor 14.396 dolar\/tona \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; b\u00f6ylece \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc seans \u00fcst \u00fcste y\u00fckseli\u015f ve haftal\u0131k bazda yedinci art\u0131\u015f kaydedildi. Nakit\/3 ay spreadi 518,5 dolar\/ton backwardation\u2019a geni\u015flerken, stoklar 42\u2019nci seans \u00fcst \u00fcste gerileyerek 204.975 tona indi. Cochilco, \u015eili \u00fcretiminin 2026\u2019da y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %2,6 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 5,3 milyon tona gerilemesini bekliyor; bak\u0131r y\u0131lba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana yakla\u015f\u0131k %16 y\u00fckseldi. Para y\u00f6neticileri net uzun COMEX bak\u0131r\u0131 3.084 lot art\u0131rarak 80.880\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131rken, COMEX alt\u0131n net uzunlar\u0131 9.470 art\u0131\u015fla 141.868\u2019e y\u00fckseldi; COMEX g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f net uzunlar\u0131 ise 755 azalaraq 10.312\u2019ye geriledi. Tar\u0131mda, Ukrayna a\u011fustosun ilk 12 g\u00fcn\u00fcnde 590 bin ton tah\u0131l ihra\u00e7 etti; bu, gerekli temponun yakla\u015f\u0131k %30\u2019una denk geliyor ancak Tuna (Danube) rotas\u0131 y\u0131l sonuna kadar ayl\u0131k 1,5 milyon tona ula\u015fabilir. Rosstat, temmuzda tah\u0131l ve bakliyat sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n y\u0131ll\u0131k %9,1 art\u0131\u015fla 5,4 milyon ton oldu\u011funu; ocak\u2013temmuz sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n %24,2 artarak 32,8 milyon tona \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bildirdi. Bu d\u00f6nemde bu\u011fday sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 %28 art\u0131\u015fla 21,8 milyon tona, m\u0131s\u0131r sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 %21 art\u0131\u015fla 3,8 milyon tona y\u00fckseldi. Stoklar %9 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 24,7 milyon tona inerken, bu\u011fday stoklar\u0131 %6,3 azal\u0131\u015fla 18,7 milyon ton oldu. CBOT taraf\u0131nda pozisyonlar da de\u011fi\u015fti: Bu\u011fday net k\u0131sa pozisyonlar\u0131 7.615 lot artarak 31.401\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; m\u0131s\u0131r net uzunlar\u0131 15.176 lot azalarak 166.770\u2019e indi; soya fasulyesi net uzunlar\u0131 24.104 lot d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 101.362\u2019ye geriledi.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da t\u0131rmanan arz risklerinden faydalanmak i\u00e7in Brent ve WTI ham petrol vadeli i\u015flemlerinde uzun pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 korumas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Jeopolitik tansiyonun d\u00fc\u015fmesi durumunda a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riski s\u0131n\u0131rlarken fiyatlara maruz kalman\u0131n ak\u0131ll\u0131 bir yolu, kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 \u201cpara d\u0131\u015f\u0131\u201d (out-of-the-money) al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 sat\u0131n almakt\u0131r. K\u00fcresel petrol s\u0131v\u0131lar\u0131 t\u00fcketiminin %20\u2019sinden fazlas\u0131n\u0131n ge\u00e7ti\u011fi H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 gibi kritik bo\u011fazlara yak\u0131n \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar, tarihsel olarak erken davranan opsiyon al\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6d\u00fcllendiren sert fiyat s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131n\u0131 tetikler.<\/p>\n
Bununla birlikte, bu uzun pozisyonlar ABD \u00fcretimindeki art\u0131\u015f riskine kar\u015f\u0131 hedge edilmelidir; ABD \u00fcretiminin bu y\u0131l rekor 13,8 milyon varil\/g\u00fcne ula\u015faca\u011f\u0131 tahmin ediliyor. ABD petrol sondaj kulesi say\u0131s\u0131 \u00fc\u00e7 haftad\u0131r \u00fcst \u00fcste artarak 455\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; bu da kaya petrol\u00fc \u00fcreticilerinin daha y\u00fcksek fiyatlara h\u0131zl\u0131 tepki verdi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Olas\u0131 ani, arz kaynakl\u0131 fiyat d\u00fczeltmelerine kar\u015f\u0131 maliyet-etkin bir koruma olarak WTI\u2019da \u201cay\u0131\u201d put spreadleri (bear put spreads) kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Metallerde, k\u0131sa vadeli arz s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan yararlanmak i\u00e7in en yak\u0131n vade bak\u0131r vadeli kontratlar\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 veya \u201cbull\u201d takvim spreadlerine girilmesini tavsiye ediyoruz. LME stoklar\u0131 42 g\u00fcnd\u00fcr aral\u0131ks\u0131z d\u00fc\u015ferek 204.975 tona inerken, nakit\u20133 ay spreadi ton ba\u015f\u0131na 518,50 dolarl\u0131k \u00e7ok g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir backwardation\u2019a d\u00f6nm\u00fc\u015f durumda. Bu piyasa yap\u0131s\u0131 tarihsel olarak spot fiyatlar\u0131n vadeli fiyatlar\u0131 geride b\u0131rakmaya devam edece\u011fine i\u015faret eder; bu da uzun pozisyonlar\u0131n getiri potansiyelini art\u0131r\u0131r.<\/p>\n
\u015eili \u00fcretiminin, Codelco ve BHP\u2019deki operasyonel zorluklar nedeniyle bu y\u0131l %2,6 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 5,3 milyon tona gerilemesinin beklenmesi, bak\u0131r fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fcksek kalaca\u011f\u0131na dair g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fc destekliyor. \u00d6te yandan, daha geni\u015f piyasa oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 savunma ama\u00e7l\u0131 olarak COMEX alt\u0131n uzun pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131n art\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Spek\u00fclatif alt\u0131n net uzunlar\u0131 Eyl\u00fcl 2025\u2019ten bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyelere ula\u015farak k\u0131ymetli metallere g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kurumsal deste\u011fi teyit ediyor.<\/p>\n
Tar\u0131msal t\u00fcrevlerde, yo\u011fun spek\u00fclatif sat\u0131\u015flarla uyumlu \u015fekilde CBOT bu\u011fdayda k\u0131sa pozisyon al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 veya put opsiyonlar\u0131 sat\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Karadeniz koridoru kapal\u0131 kalmaya devam ederken Ukrayna ihracat\u0131 aksasa da, Rusya\u2019n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 k\u00fcresel arz a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde dolduruyor. Rusya\u2019n\u0131n bu\u011fday sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n y\u0131ll\u0131k %28 art\u0131\u015fla 21,8 milyon tona s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131, k\u00fcresel tah\u0131l piyasalar\u0131nda yak\u0131n vadeli fiyatlar\u0131 bask\u0131layacak yeterli likidite oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca para y\u00f6neticileri net uzun pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 tasfiye etmeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc i\u00e7in CBOT m\u0131s\u0131r ve soya fasulyesinde uzun maruziyetin azalt\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 uygun g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. M\u0131s\u0131rda spek\u00fclatif net uzunlar\u0131n son d\u00f6nemde 15 binden fazla lot gerilemesi, daha \u201cay\u0131\u201d bir alg\u0131ya net bir kaymaya i\u015faret ediyor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar burada a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentumu, put opsiyonlar\u0131 alarak veya elde kalan uzun tah\u0131l kontratlar\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131 zarar-kes (stop-loss) seviyeleri belirleyerek de\u011ferlendirebilir. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Brent 90 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131nda; L\u00fcbnan-H\u00fcrm\u00fcz gerilimiyle arz riski ve fonlar\u0131n net uzunlar\u0131 art\u0131yor. Bak\u0131r rekor\/backwardation ve d\u00fc\u015fen stoklarla \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor; tah\u0131lda Rus sat\u0131\u015f\u0131, bu\u011fdayda k\u0131sa bask\u0131n.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50062,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52887","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t