Piyasalar, Kanada dolar\u0131n\u0131n (CAD) yak\u0131n vadeli y\u00f6n belirleyicileri olarak Kanada\u2019n\u0131n temmuz enflasyon verisine ve yakla\u015fan ABD \u201cSection 338\u201d tarife son tarihine odaklan\u0131yor. TD Securities, man\u015fet T\u00dcFE\u2019nin y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda 0,1 puan artarak %2,9\u2019a y\u00fckselmesini, ayl\u0131k bazda ise fiyatlar\u0131n %0,4 artmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor; \u00e7ekirdek \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcmlerin ise yatay kalaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor: CPI-trim\/median y\u0131ll\u0131k %1,85 ve \u00fc\u00e7 ayl\u0131k y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f bazda %1,6. Haziran perakende sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n yatay gelmesi bekleniyor; bu, daha \u00f6nceki %0,4 art\u0131\u015f sinyalinin alt\u0131nda kal\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n
Ticaret politikas\u0131, Kanada ve ABD yetkilileri aras\u0131nda 20 milyar ABD dolar\u0131 tutar\u0131ndaki Kanada ihracat\u0131na uygulanmas\u0131 g\u00fcndemde olan %50 tarifeyi \u00f6nlemeye y\u00f6nelik \u00fc\u00e7 haftal\u0131k g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin ard\u0131ndan yeniden oda\u011fa yerle\u015fti. Para politikas\u0131 taraf\u0131nda TD Securities, Kanada Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoC) Gecelik Faiz Oran\u0131\u2019n\u0131 2026 boyunca %2,25\u2019te tutaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131, ard\u0131ndan 2027\u2019de ocak ve mart aylar\u0131nda 25\u2019er baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015flarla \u201cn\u00f6tr\u201d seviye olan %2,75\u2019e do\u011fru ilerleyece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Aktivite verilerinde daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc motorlu ta\u015f\u0131t sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n man\u015feti desteklemesi beklenirken, otomobil hari\u00e7 sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n ayl\u0131k %0,2 gerilemesi ve daha yumu\u015fak benzin fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc etki yaratmas\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n—\n\n
ABD Section 338 tarifeleri i\u00e7in kritik \u00e7ar\u015famba son tarihine yakla\u015f\u0131rken, t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n Kanada dolar\u0131nda (CAD) artan oynakl\u0131\u011fa haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. M\u00fczakereler sonu\u00e7suz kal\u0131r ve 20 milyar dolarl\u0131k ihracata \u00f6nerilen %50 tarife hayata ge\u00e7irilirse CAD\u2019in sert \u015fekilde de\u011fer kaybetmesi y\u00fcksek olas\u0131l\u0131k. 2018\u2019deki ticaret anla\u015fmazl\u0131klar\u0131na bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, benzer ABD tarife tehditleri Kanada dolar\u0131n\u0131 h\u0131zla %2\u2019nin \u00fczerinde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekmi\u015fti; bu da \u00f6n ay vadeli USD\/CAD al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n halihaz\u0131rda ucuz fiyatland\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n\n
Ayn\u0131 zamanda, yakla\u015fan temmuz enflasyon verisine de haz\u0131rlanmak gerekiyor; man\u015fet T\u00dcFE\u2019nin %2,9\u2019a y\u00fckselmesi, \u00e7ekirdek oran\u0131n ise %1,85\u2019te \u00e7\u0131palanm\u0131\u015f kalmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Bu istikrarl\u0131 \u00e7ekirdek okuma, BoC\u2019nin 2 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019deki politika karar\u0131nda faizi %2,25\u2019te sabit tutmas\u0131n\u0131 muhtemelen destekleyecek. Buradan hareketle, k\u0131sa vadeli faiz vadeli i\u015flemlerinde prim satarak 2026\u2019n\u0131n geri kalan\u0131na ili\u015fkin faiz beklentilerinin b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde kilitli kalaca\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde pozisyon al\u0131nabilir.<\/p>\n\n
Son olarak, haziran perakende sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n yatay gelerek piyasay\u0131 hayal k\u0131r\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131na u\u011fratmas\u0131n\u0131 ve ilk \u00f6nc\u00fc tahminlerdeki %0,4 art\u0131\u015f\u0131 yakalayamamas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. Daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck benzin fiyatlar\u0131ndan gelen a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc etki ve zay\u0131flayan t\u00fcketici talebi, tarife sonucundan ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z olarak para birimi \u00fczerinde bask\u0131y\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrecek. Al\u0131m-sat\u0131m aral\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131n yakla\u015fmas\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda USD\/CAD oynakl\u0131k stratejileriyle (\u00f6r. straddle al\u0131m\u0131) konumlanmak, bu ikiz yurti\u00e7i ve ticaret kaynakl\u0131 risklerden do\u011fabilecek hareketi yakalamaya imk\u00e2n tan\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" CAD\u2019de f\u0131rt\u0131na kap\u0131da: Temmuz T\u00dcFE\u2019nin %2,9\u2019a y\u00fckselmesi beklenirken \u00e7ekirdek %1,85\u2019te yatay. Section 338 tarife son tarihi risk yarat\u0131yor; %50 tarife CAD\u2019i sert zay\u0131flatabilir. BoC faizi %2,25 tutar.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49971,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52881","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t