\u00c7in\u2019in konut fiyat endeksi temmuzda s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015f kaydederek -%3,3\u2019ten -%3,2\u2019ye iyile\u015fti. Veriler, b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye net bir d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ften ziyade d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f h\u0131z\u0131nda marjinal bir yava\u015flamaya i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Temmuz verisi, endeksin s\u0131f\u0131r\u0131n alt\u0131nda kalmas\u0131 nedeniyle fiyatlar\u0131n y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda d\u00fc\u015fmeye devam etti\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. -%3,3\u2019ten -%3,2\u2019ye ge\u00e7i\u015f, ay i\u00e7inde ko\u015fullar\u0131n s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde istikrar kazand\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
\u00c7in\u2019de konut fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n temmuzda -%3,3\u2019ten -%3,2\u2019ye s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 iyile\u015fmesi, emlak piyasas\u0131ndaki sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ivme kaybetti\u011fine i\u015faret etse de ger\u00e7ek bir toparlanmadan h\u00e2l\u00e2 uza\u011f\u0131z. T\u00fcrev i\u015flemc\u0131lar\u0131 bu k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketi agresif al\u0131mlar i\u00e7in \u201cye\u015fil \u0131\u015f\u0131k\u201d olarak de\u011fil, daha \u00e7ok istikrar sinyali olarak de\u011ferlendirmeli. Y\u00f6n tahmininden ziyade oynakl\u0131ktan faydalanan k\u0131sa vadeli opsiyon stratejilerine odaklan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bu s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 iyile\u015fme, sat\u0131lamayan konut stokunun eritilmesini hedefleyen PBOC\u2019nin 300 milyar yuanl\u0131k yeniden kredi (re-lending) program\u0131 gibi y\u0131llard\u0131r s\u00fcren yo\u011fun politika m\u00fcdahalelerinin ard\u0131ndan geliyor. Tarihsel olarak, \u00c7in\u2019de emlak yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 2024\u2019te y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %10\u2019un \u00fczerinde gerileyerek yap\u0131sal hasar\u0131n ne kadar derin oldu\u011funu ortaya koymu\u015ftu. Yeniden bozulma riskinin y\u00fcksek kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131; bu nedenle ani d\u00fczenleyici ad\u0131mlar\u0131n keskin piyasa tepkilerini tetiklemeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Emtia taraf\u0131nda, bu s\u00f6n\u00fck toparlanman\u0131n demir cevheri ve bak\u0131r vadeli i\u015flemlerinde belirgin bir yukar\u0131 potansiyeli s\u0131n\u0131rlamas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. Tarihsel olarak, \u00c7in\u2019de in\u015faat faaliyetinin duraksad\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemlerde demir cevheri fiyatlar\u0131 metrik ton ba\u015f\u0131na 100 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na sarkm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu konut verisinin ger\u00e7ek in\u015faat talebini tetikleyememesi riskine kar\u015f\u0131, sanayi metalleri \u00fczerinde koruyucu sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 al\u0131narak hedge yap\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Hisse senedi t\u00fcrevlerinde Hang Seng Endeksi ve FTSE China A50\u2019de ima edilen oynakl\u0131\u011fa odaklanmak gerekir. Y\u00fcksek volatilite primleri, iron condor gibi opsiyon sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 stratejilerini \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda getiri \u00fcretimi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan olduk\u00e7a cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor. Ayr\u0131ca Offshore Yuan (CNH) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n izlenmesini tavsiye ediyoruz; zira emlaktaki bu s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 \u201cs\u0131\u00e7rama\u201dn\u0131n s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclememesi, para birimini h\u0131zl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde zay\u0131flatabilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" \u00c7in\u2019de konut fiyat endeksi temmuzda -%3,3\u2019ten -%3,2\u2019ye toparland\u0131: d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f h\u0131z\u0131nda yava\u015flama var, d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f yok. Emtia y\u00fckseli\u015fi s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131; metal put\u2019lar\u0131 ve volatilite stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49991,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52880","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t