Alt\u0131n, ABD\u2019den gelen zay\u0131f verilerin Fed\u2019in daha s\u0131k\u0131 bir politika izleyece\u011fi beklentilerini azaltmas\u0131 ve ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019na deste\u011fi zay\u0131flatmas\u0131yla 4.400 dolar b\u00f6lgesi yak\u0131n\u0131ndaki toparlanmas\u0131n\u0131 korudu; spot piyasada fiyat 4.390 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. ABD perakende sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 temmuzda %0,6 gerileyerek dokuz ay\u0131n ilk d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc kaydederken, \u00e7ekirdek perakende sat\u0131\u015flar da d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Michigan \u00dcniversitesi \u00f6nc\u00fc T\u00fcketici G\u00fcven Endeksi ise a\u011fustosta 55,2\u2019den 51,0\u2019e gerileyerek 54,5\u2019lik beklentinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. Fed temmuz toplant\u0131s\u0131nda hedef aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %3,50\u2013%3,75\u2019te b\u0131raksa da \u00fc\u00e7 politika yap\u0131c\u0131 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131 tercih etti. Piyasalar, daha fazla ayr\u0131nt\u0131 i\u00e7in 19 A\u011fustos\u2019ta yay\u0131mlanacak temmuz toplant\u0131 tutanaklar\u0131n\u0131 izliyor.<\/p>\n
Jeopolitik risk de defansif varl\u0131klara talebi destekledi. ABD-\u0130ran bar\u0131\u015f \u00e7abalar\u0131nda s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 ilerleme g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcrken, gemilere y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan ge\u00e7i\u015fin ciddi \u015fekilde k\u0131s\u0131tland\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtildi; ayr\u0131ca ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik ilave ekonomik bask\u0131 uyar\u0131lar\u0131 g\u00fcndeme geldi. Teknik tarafta alt\u0131n, alt\u0131nda yuvarlak tabanlar olu\u015fturdu\u011fu kritik bir yatay direncin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131ktan sonra bu b\u00f6lgeyi yeniden test etmek \u00fczere geri \u00e7ekildi ve buradan toparland\u0131; bu da eski direncin art\u0131k destek olarak \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Bu seviyenin alt\u0131na sark\u0131lmas\u0131 ise yap\u0131y\u0131 zay\u0131flat\u0131r ve a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riski art\u0131r\u0131r.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev piyasas\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n, alt\u0131n (XAU\/USD) 4.400 dolar e\u015fi\u011fi yak\u0131n\u0131nda konsolide olurken uzun (long) pozisyonlara odaklanmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Teknik k\u0131r\u0131lman\u0131n eski direncin \u00fczerinde sa\u011flam kalmas\u0131yla, 4.390 dolar destek b\u00f6lgesine do\u011fru s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 geri \u00e7ekilmelerde al\u0131m f\u0131rsat\u0131 aranmal\u0131. Bu kurgu, al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 veya kald\u0131ra\u00e7l\u0131 uzun spot pozisyonlar i\u00e7in cazip bir risk-getiri oran\u0131 sunuyor.<\/p>\n
Y\u00fckseli\u015f beklentimizi, temmuz perakende sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131ndaki s\u00fcrpriz %0,6\u2019l\u0131k d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ve t\u00fcketici g\u00fcvenindeki 51,0\u2019e sert gerileme gibi bozulmaya i\u015faret eden ABD g\u00f6stergeleri g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bi\u00e7imde destekliyor. Tarihsel olarak t\u00fcketici g\u00fcveni 60 seviyesinin alt\u0131na indi\u011finde, takip eden \u00e7eyrekte alt\u0131n ortalama %8 oran\u0131nda hisse senetlerinden daha iyi performans g\u00f6sterdi; yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar g\u00fcvenli limanlara y\u00f6neldi. 19 A\u011fustos\u2019ta a\u00e7\u0131klanacak Fed tutanaklar\u0131n\u0131n daha g\u00fcvercin bir duru\u015fu teyit ederek tahvil getirilerindeki y\u00fckseli\u015fi s\u0131n\u0131rlamas\u0131n\u0131 ve getirisi olmayan alt\u0131n\u0131 desteklemesini bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n
Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki istikrars\u0131zl\u0131k ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki sevkiyat aksamalar\u0131 da g\u00fcvenli liman giri\u015flerini kal\u0131c\u0131 \u015fekilde besliyor. Ge\u00e7mi\u015fteki enerji arz \u015foklar\u0131 ve ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131k krizlerinde \u20142024\u2019te K\u0131z\u0131ldeniz kaynakl\u0131 aksamalarda alt\u0131n\u0131n birka\u00e7 ay i\u00e7inde %15\u2019in \u00fczerinde y\u00fckselmesi gibi\u2014 k\u0131ymetli metaller nihai korunma arac\u0131 olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Ani jeopolitik t\u0131rman\u0131\u015flar\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131 h\u0131zla yukar\u0131 itebilece\u011fi senaryolardan yararlanmak i\u00e7in uzun vadeli yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc call opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bununla birlikte disiplinli kal\u0131nmal\u0131 ve 4.350 dolar civar\u0131ndaki kritik destek seviyesinin hemen alt\u0131na s\u0131k\u0131 zarar-kes (stop-loss) emirleri yerle\u015ftirilmeli. Bu \u00e7izginin alt\u0131nda g\u00fcnl\u00fck kapan\u0131\u015f, mevcut y\u00fckseli\u015f kurgumuzu ge\u00e7ersiz k\u0131lar ve muhtemelen h\u0131zl\u0131 bir pozisyon \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmesine yol a\u00e7ar. \u015eimdilik makro ortam ve grafik formasyonlar\u0131, alt\u0131n i\u00e7in en az diren\u00e7li y\u00f6n\u00fcn belirgin bi\u00e7imde yukar\u0131 oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Alt\u0131nda g\u00f6zler Fed tutanaklar\u0131nda: Zay\u0131f ABD verileriyle dolar gerilerken XAU\/USD 4.390\u2019da tutunup 4.400\u2019e yak\u0131n. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz gerilimi g\u00fcvenli liman\u0131 destekliyor; 4.350 alt\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fi bozar.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50121,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52879","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t