Rupi, Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc iki seansl\u0131k kayb\u0131n ard\u0131ndan dengelendi; USD\/INR 95,60 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Odak, RBI\u2019nin FCNR mevduatlar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik FX swap imk\u00e2n\u0131n\u0131 bir ay erken sonland\u0131rma karar\u0131na kayd\u0131. E\u015flik eden veriler, swap penceresi d\u00e2hil politika ad\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k 57 milyar dolara yak\u0131n giri\u015f \u00e7ekti\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi. Piyasa, bu hafta paritenin 95,00\u201395,50 band\u0131nda hareket etmesini bekliyor; pozisyonlanma, 31 A\u011fustos kapan\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00f6ncesi yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131 talep ile yabanc\u0131 portf\u00f6y ak\u0131mlar\u0131 ve rutin korunma (hedging) i\u015flemlerinden etkileniyor. Dikkatler ayr\u0131ca RBI\u2019nin A\u011fustos toplant\u0131 tutanaklar\u0131nda; toplant\u0131da faizler de\u011fi\u015fmeden b\u0131rak\u0131l\u0131rken, Temmuz man\u015fet T\u00dcFE y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %4,38\u2019den %4,45\u2019e y\u00fckseldi.<\/p>\n\n
Zay\u0131f ABD verilerinin ard\u0131ndan dolar yumu\u015fad\u0131. Perakende Sat\u0131\u015flar, Haziran\u2019da %0,2 art\u0131\u015f sonras\u0131 Temmuz\u2019da ayl\u0131k bazda %0,6 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; piyasan\u0131n %0,1 b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentisinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. Y\u0131ll\u0131k oran ise %6,8\u2019den %5,0\u2019e geriledi. CME FedWatch fiyatlamas\u0131na g\u00f6re, daha yumu\u015fak T\u00dcFE, \u00dcFE ve Perakende Sat\u0131\u015flar sonras\u0131nda Fed\u2019in gelecek ay faiz art\u0131rma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %33,1\u2019e indi (ge\u00e7en hafta %44). Grafiklerde USD\/INR, y\u00fckselen kanal i\u00e7inde kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcrken 9 periyotluk EMA (95,4418) ve 50 periyotluk EMA\u2019n\u0131n (95,3913) \u00fczerinde; 14 g\u00fcnl\u00fck RSI 49,2 ve FXS Fed Duyarl\u0131l\u0131k Endeksi yakla\u015f\u0131k 134,6 seviyesinde.<\/p>\n\n
Hindistan Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (RBI) FCNR mevduat swap imk\u00e2n\u0131n\u0131 31 A\u011fustos\u2019a kadar kademeli olarak sonland\u0131rmas\u0131yla birlikte, t\u00fcrev i\u015flemcilerin USD\/INR paritesinde artan oynakl\u0131\u011fa haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Yakla\u015f\u0131k 57 milyar dolara yak\u0131n kayna\u011f\u0131 ba\u015far\u0131yla \u00e7eken bu imk\u00e2n\u0131n erken sonland\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n rupi \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratmas\u0131 ve pariteyi \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda mevcut 95,60 seviyesinin belirgin \u015fekilde \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131mas\u0131 olduk\u00e7a olas\u0131. Tarihsel olarak, RBI\u2019nin 2016\u2019daki 34 milyar dolarl\u0131k program gibi benzer \u00f6l\u00e7ekli swap giri\u015flerinin vadesini y\u00f6netti\u011fi d\u00f6nemlerde forward primleri sert dalgalanm\u0131\u015f, bu da swap i\u015flemcileri i\u00e7in cazip f\u0131rsatlar yaratm\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n\n
Teknik g\u00f6stergeleri yak\u0131ndan izliyoruz; USD\/INR\u2019nin 95,44 d\u00fczeyindeki 9 periyotluk EMA\u2019n\u0131n \u00fczerinde, y\u00fckselen kanal i\u00e7inde yap\u0131c\u0131 e\u011filimi korudu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. 14 g\u00fcnl\u00fck RSI\u2019\u0131n 49,2 olmas\u0131 momentumun \u015fu an dengeli oldu\u011funa i\u015faret etse de, 95,00\u201395,50 destek band\u0131na do\u011fru olas\u0131 geri \u00e7ekilmeler g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir al\u0131m f\u0131rsat\u0131 sunuyor. Mevduat imk\u00e2n\u0131n\u0131n kapan\u0131\u015f\u0131yla olu\u015fabilecek yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc k\u0131r\u0131lmadan faydalanmak i\u00e7in, k\u0131sa vadeli geri \u00e7ekilmelerde USD\/INR al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131nda uzun pozisyon biriktirilmesini \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
Temmuz perakende sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131nda ayl\u0131k bazda %0,6\u2019l\u0131k d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f d\u00e2hil olmak \u00fczere zay\u0131f ABD verileri, dolar\u0131n g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc ge\u00e7ici olarak s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131; ancak bu bask\u0131n\u0131n k\u0131sa \u00f6m\u00fcrl\u00fc kalmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. \u00d6te yandan, Hindistan\u2019da enflasyonun Temmuz\u2019da %4,45\u2019e y\u00fckselmesi RBI\u2019nin \u201cbekle-g\u00f6r\u201d duru\u015funu s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesini sa\u011flayarak rupi i\u00e7in sert bir de\u011ferlenme alan\u0131n\u0131 k\u0131s\u0131tl\u0131yor. Bu dinamikler nedeniyle agresif dolar k\u0131sa (short) pozisyonlar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 temkinli durulmas\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
K\u0131sa vadede, 31 A\u011fustos son tarihi \u00f6ncesinde FX mevduatlar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fcvenceye almak isteyen yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131 m\u00fc\u015fterilerden talep art\u0131\u015f\u0131 bekliyoruz; bu da g\u00fcn i\u00e7i fiyat hareketlerinde dalgal\u0131 bir seyre yol a\u00e7abilir. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, 95,00\u201395,50 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131ndaki mevcut konsolidasyondan faydalanmak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa straddle veya iron condor gibi bant stratejilerini de\u011ferlendirmeli; ard\u0131ndan net bir \u015fekilde y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc USD pozisyonlar\u0131na ge\u00e7i\u015f d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclmelidir. RBI\u2019nin toplant\u0131 tutanaklar\u0131n\u0131 yay\u0131mlamas\u0131yla olu\u015fabilecek beklenmedik oynakl\u0131\u011fa kar\u015f\u0131, 95,39\u2019daki 50 periyotluk EMA\u2019n\u0131n hemen alt\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131 zarar-kes seviyeleri bulundurmak portf\u00f6yleri koruyacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Rupi 95,60\u2019ta dengelendi: RBI\u2019nin FCNR swap \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131 57 milyar $ giri\u015fin ard\u0131ndan oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 art\u0131rabilir. Zay\u0131f ABD verileri dolar\u0131 yumu\u015fatsa da USD\/INR\u2019de 95,00\u201395,50 destek, yukar\u0131 risk bask\u0131n.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49961,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52876","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t