Alt\u0131n, 4.400 dolar\u0131n hemen alt\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rerek haftan\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131ndaki s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kazan\u0131mlar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmakta zorland\u0131 ve ge\u00e7en per\u015fembe g\u00f6r\u00fclen, 5 Haziran\u2019dan bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyenin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. Zay\u0131flayan ABD verileri metale destek vermeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc: Temmuz Perakende Sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 %0,6 gerilerken, Michigan \u00dcniversitesi T\u00fcketici G\u00fcven Endeksi a\u011fustosta 55,2\u2019den 51\u2019e indi. Bu tablo, Federal Rezerv\u2019in yak\u0131n vadede faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 erteleyebilece\u011fi beklentisini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirerek ABD Dolar\u0131 \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratt\u0131. Buna kar\u015f\u0131n, oynak enerji fiyatlar\u0131 ve artan jeopolitik risk dolar\u0131n a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rlay\u0131p alt\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fckseli\u015fini t\u00f6rp\u00fcledi; ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran\u2019a kar\u015f\u0131 yeni ekonomik tedbirler haz\u0131rlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve gerilimin H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 ekseninde yo\u011funla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtildi. Ukrayna\u2019n\u0131n Rus rafinerilerine y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131na dair ayr\u0131 haberler de petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalmas\u0131na yard\u0131mc\u0131 oldu; bu durum enflasyon endi\u015felerini canl\u0131 tutarken 2026\u2019da en az bir Fed faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentisinin masada kalmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7t\u0131.<\/p>\n
Piyasalar ayr\u0131ca CME Group FedWatch verilerini izledi; g\u00f6sterge y\u0131l sonuna kadar ABD bor\u00e7lanma maliyetlerinin y\u00fckselme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %65 olarak i\u015faret ederken, \u00e7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc yay\u0131mlanacak FOMC tutanaklar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde pozisyonlanma temkinli kald\u0131. Teknik tarafta ise 4.400 dolar \u00fczerindeki tekrar eden ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z denemeler (nisan\u2013haziran d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcn %50 geri \u00e7ekilme seviyesi olarak tan\u0131mlan\u0131yor) ve 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA alt\u0131ndaki seyir, genel g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc bask\u0131lad\u0131. Momentum g\u00f6stergeleri daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fcyd\u00fc; RSI 64,43 seviyesinde, MACD pozitif kald\u0131. Yukar\u0131da 4.506 ve 4.509, ard\u0131ndan 4.666 ve 4.865 seviyeleri izlenirken; a\u015fa\u011f\u0131da 4.290, 4.154 ve 3.935 destekleri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n
ABD\u2019de zay\u0131f ekonomik verilere ra\u011fmen alt\u0131n kritik 4.400 dolar direncini a\u015fmakta zorlan\u0131rken, t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n temkinli olmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Temmuz perakende sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n %0,6 d\u00fc\u015fmesi ve t\u00fcketici g\u00fcveninin 51\u2019e gerilemesi, dolar\u0131n zay\u0131flamas\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir temel arg\u00fcman olu\u015fturuyor. Ancak agresif uzun pozisyonlara ge\u00e7meden \u00f6nce %50 Fibonacci geri \u00e7ekilme seviyesinin \u00fczerine net bir k\u0131r\u0131lma g\u00f6r\u00fclmesini beklemek daha do\u011fru olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n
G\u00fcnl\u00fck 20 milyon varilin \u00fczerinde petrol\u00fcn ge\u00e7ti\u011fi\u2014k\u00fcresel s\u0131v\u0131 petrol t\u00fcketiminin yakla\u015f\u0131k %20\u2019si\u2014H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki jeopolitik tehditler, enflasyon korkular\u0131n\u0131 olduk\u00e7a canl\u0131 tutuyor. Bu arz riskleri, ham petrolde ani s\u0131\u00e7ramalara yol a\u00e7abilir; bu da tarihsel olarak y\u00fckselen fiyatlara kar\u015f\u0131 klasik bir korunma arac\u0131 olan alt\u0131n\u0131 yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131r. Olas\u0131 oynakl\u0131ktan yararlan\u0131rken ani dolar rallilerine kar\u015f\u0131 riski s\u0131n\u0131rlamak ad\u0131na, alt\u0131nda al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n (call) kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Teknik a\u00e7\u0131dan, \u015fu anda 4.506 dolar civar\u0131nda bulunan 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck Basit Hareketli Ortalamay\u0131 yak\u0131ndan izliyoruz. Fiyat 4.290 dolardaki yak\u0131n deste\u011fi koruyamazsa, 4.154 b\u00f6lgesine do\u011fru bir geri \u00e7ekilmeye haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olunmal\u0131d\u0131r. K\u0131sa vadeli t\u00fcrev stratejilerinde, net bir y\u00f6nl\u00fc k\u0131r\u0131lma olu\u015fana kadar demir kondor gibi bant i\u00e7i stratejiler veya zararda olmayan (out-of-the-money) put yaz\u0131m\u0131 etkili olabilir.<\/p>\n
Bu \u00e7ar\u015famba yay\u0131mlanacak FOMC tutanaklar\u0131 kritik olacak; zira piyasa h\u00e2l\u00e2 2026 sonuna kadar bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %65 d\u00fczeyinde fiyatl\u0131yor. Tarihsel olarak, ekonomik ge\u00e7i\u015f d\u00f6nemlerinde FOMC yay\u0131mlama g\u00fcnlerinde alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131nda ortalama g\u00fcn i\u00e7i oynakl\u0131k %1,5 art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6steriyor. Federal Rezerv\u2019den gelebilecek \u015fahin s\u00fcrprizlere kar\u015f\u0131 mevcut spot alt\u0131n pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 korumak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli (short-dated) sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (put) ile hedge edilmesini \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Alt\u0131n 4.400 dolar direncini ge\u00e7emedi; zay\u0131f ABD verileri dolar\u0131 bask\u0131lasa da H\u00fcrm\u00fcz kaynakl\u0131 jeopolitik\/enerji oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fi s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor. Fed tutanaklar\u0131 \u00f6ncesi teknik bask\u0131, opsiyonla hedge \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50093,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52874","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t