\u00c7in Halk Bankas\u0131 (PBOC), pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc USD\/CNY merkez parite kurunu 6,7873 olarak belirledi. Bu seviye, cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc 6,7878\u2019e k\u0131yasla s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir gev\u015femeye i\u015faret ederken, Reuters\u2019in 6,7382\u2019lik tahmininden de ayr\u0131\u015ft\u0131. G\u00fcnl\u00fck fixing, renminbinin karada (onshore) i\u015flem band\u0131na y\u00f6n veren temel \u00e7\u0131pa niteli\u011fi ta\u015f\u0131yor. Bu mekanizma, merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n fiyat istikrar\u0131 kapsam\u0131ndaki daha geni\u015f yetki alan\u0131yla; d\u00f6viz kuru istikrar\u0131, ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye destek ve ayn\u0131 zamanda yurti\u00e7i piyasalar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131p geli\u015ftirmeyi hedefleyen finansal reformlarla birlikte y\u00fcr\u00fct\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
PBOC, \u00c7in Halk Cumhuriyeti (\u00c7HC) b\u00fcnyesinde devlete ait olup \u00f6zerk bir kurum olarak de\u011ferlendirilmiyor. Politika \u00e7er\u00e7evesi; yedi g\u00fcnl\u00fck ters repo faizi, Orta Vadeli Kredi \u0130mk\u00e2n\u0131 (MLF), d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131 m\u00fcdahaleleri ve Zorunlu Kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k Oran\u0131 (RRR) gibi ara\u00e7lar\u0131 kaps\u0131yor. Kredi Ana Faizi (LPR) ise \u00c7in\u2019de bor\u00e7lanma maliyetleri, tasarruf faizleri ve renminbi \u00fczerindeki etki bak\u0131m\u0131ndan temel referans faiz olmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. \u00c7in \u00f6zel bankac\u0131l\u0131\u011fa izin veriyor; faaliyette 19 \u00f6zel banka bulunurken, en b\u00fcy\u00fckleri dijital kredi kurulu\u015flar\u0131 WeBank ve MYbank. Sekt\u00f6r, 2014\u2019te tamamen \u00f6zel sermayeli yerli bankalara a\u00e7\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n
\u00c7in Halk Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n g\u00fcnl\u00fck USD\/CNY referans kurunu 6,7873\u2019te belirledi\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; bu, piyasa tahmini olan 6,7382\u2019ye k\u0131yasla yuan a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan daha zay\u0131f bir seviyeye i\u015faret ediyor. Bu sinyal, \u00c7inli politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n zay\u0131flayan ihracat rekabet\u00e7ili\u011fini desteklemek i\u00e7in daha zay\u0131f bir para birimiyle rahat olduklar\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. T\u00fcrev piyasas\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda yuan cinsi varl\u0131klarda artan oynakl\u0131\u011fa haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131 gerekiyor.<\/p>\n
Son d\u00f6nemdeki ekonomik g\u00f6stergeler de bu gev\u015fek duru\u015fu destekliyor: \u00c7in\u2019de t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksi %0,5\u2019in \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmakta zorlan\u0131rken, imalat PMI\u2019lar\u0131 49,8 daralma e\u015fi\u011fi yak\u0131n\u0131nda seyrediyor. Tarihsel olarak daha zay\u0131f bir yuan, \u00c7in mallar\u0131n\u0131 k\u00fcresel al\u0131c\u0131lar i\u00e7in ucuzlatarak yurti\u00e7i deflasyonist bask\u0131lar\u0131 dengelemeye yard\u0131mc\u0131 oluyor. Bu zay\u0131f verilerin, renminbi \u00fczerinde temel bask\u0131y\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc tutaca\u011f\u0131 kanaatindeyiz.<\/p>\n
Kur t\u00fcrevlerinde, d\u00f6viz kurunda yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketin s\u00fcrmesine kar\u015f\u0131 USD\/CNY al\u0131m (call) opsiyonu al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Bununla birlikte, \u00e7o\u011fu zaman kurda kontrols\u00fcz de\u011fer kayb\u0131n\u0131 engellemek \u00fczere devreye giren kamu bankalar\u0131ndan gelebilecek ani m\u00fcdahalelere kar\u015f\u0131 tetikte kal\u0131nmal\u0131. Risk-reversal stratejilerinin uygulanmas\u0131, devlet kaynakl\u0131 bu ani piyasa d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015flerine kar\u015f\u0131 korunmaya yard\u0131mc\u0131 olabilir.<\/p>\n
Faiz taraf\u0131nda ise, zorlanan gayrimenkul sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fc canland\u0131rmak amac\u0131yla g\u00f6sterge Kredi Ana Faizi\u2019nde (LPR) ilave indirimler bekliyoruz. T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapanlar\u0131n, bu gev\u015feme d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcnden faydalanmak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli faiz swaplar\u0131nda \u201creceiver\u201d pozisyonlara y\u00f6nelmesi de\u011ferlendirilebilir. Merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n bir sonraki ad\u0131mlar\u0131na dair ipu\u00e7lar\u0131 i\u00e7in yakla\u015fan Orta Vadeli Kredi \u0130mk\u00e2n\u0131 (MLF) operasyonlar\u0131n\u0131 yak\u0131ndan izlemek gerekiyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" S\u00fcrpriz fixing: PBOC USD\/CNY\u2019yi 6,7873\u2019e \u00e7ekti; piyasa tahmininden daha zay\u0131f yuan sinyali verdi. Zay\u0131f PMI-CPI g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc, olas\u0131 LPR indirimlerini desteklerken opsiyonlarda y\u00fckseli\u015f ve risk-reversal \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50084,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52871","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t