USD\/JPY, ikinci seansta da gerileyerek Asya i\u015flemlerinde 159,10 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc; Japonya\u2019n\u0131n \u00f6nc\u00fc 2\u00c7 GSYH verisinin ard\u0131ndan yen g\u00f6rece g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kal\u0131rken ABD dolar\u0131 da zay\u0131flad\u0131. Japonya ekonomisi 2\u00c7 2026\u2019da \u00e7eyreklik bazda %0,3 b\u00fcy\u00fcyerek 1\u00c7\u2019deki %0,5\u2019in gerisinde kald\u0131 ve %0,5\u2019lik beklentiyi kar\u015f\u0131layamad\u0131. Y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f bazda GSYH %1,1 artarken, %2,0\u2019lik tahminin ve \u00f6nceki %1,8\u2019in alt\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti; bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n ultra gev\u015fek duru\u015ftan \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan politika normalle\u015fmesi patikas\u0131n\u0131 daha da karma\u015f\u0131kla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Parite, ABD verilerinin beklentileri kar\u015f\u0131lamamas\u0131yla zay\u0131flayan \u201cgreenback\u201di de izledi. Perakende Sat\u0131\u015flar temmuzda, hazirandaki %0,2\u2019lik art\u0131\u015f\u0131n ard\u0131ndan ayl\u0131k bazda %0,6 d\u00fc\u015ferek %0,1\u2019lik art\u0131\u015f beklentisinin tersine ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti; y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda sat\u0131\u015f art\u0131\u015f\u0131 %6,8\u2019den %5,0\u2019e yava\u015flad\u0131. Piyasalar, daha yumu\u015fak gelen T\u00dcFE, \u00dcFE ve Perakende Sat\u0131\u015flar verilerinin ard\u0131ndan Fed\u2019in ilave s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma beklentilerini de azaltt\u0131; CME FedWatch arac\u0131na g\u00f6re gelecek ay faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %33,1\u2019e gerileyerek ge\u00e7en haftaki %44 seviyesinden d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Japonya\u2019dan gelen zay\u0131f GSYH verisi ve ABD\u2019deki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck perakende sat\u0131\u015flar sonras\u0131 USD\/JPY paritesinin 159,10 seviyesine yak\u0131n seyretti\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. \u00c7ift tarafl\u0131 ekonomik yava\u015flama d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde, t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n yatay bir seyir d\u00f6nemine haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Her iki merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n da bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda oldu\u011fu bu d\u00f6nemde, iron condor gibi k\u0131sa vadeli opsiyon stratejileri olduk\u00e7a etkili olabilir.<\/p>\n
Tarihsel olarak, Fed\u2019in duraklamas\u0131 veya gev\u015femeye i\u015faret etmesi durumunda\u20142024 sonu ve 2025\u2019teki faiz ayarlamalar\u0131nda g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz \u00fczere\u2014ABD dolar endeksi yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentumunu kaybediyor. Temmuzda ABD perakende sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n %0,6 d\u00fc\u015fmesi ve CME FedWatch\u2019un gelecek ay faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimalini yaln\u0131zca %33,1 olarak g\u00f6stermesiyle, k\u0131sa vadede \u201cgreenback\u201d \u00fczerinde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 bekliyoruz. T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan, USD\/JPY\u2019de k\u0131sa vadeli put opsiyonlar\u0131 almak bu ge\u00e7ici dolar zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan faydalanmay\u0131 sa\u011flayabilir.<\/p>\n
Di\u011fer yandan, Japonya\u2019n\u0131n y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin %1,1 ile %2,0\u2019lik beklentiyi ka\u00e7\u0131rmas\u0131, Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n faizleri normalle\u015ftirme kapasitesini ciddi \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor. Bu zay\u0131f performans, 2024 ortas\u0131ndaki ekonomik \u201cyumu\u015fak d\u00f6nemleri\u201d hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor; o s\u00fcre\u00e7te yen sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 h\u0131zlanm\u0131\u015f ve USD\/JPY 160,00 seviyesinin \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131nm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Yen yeniden h\u0131zl\u0131 de\u011fer kaybederse, ani Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 m\u00fcdahalelerine kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in bariyer opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
A\u015f\u0131r\u0131 risk almadan USD\/JPY\u2019deki lokal dalgalanmalardan yararlanmak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli knock-out opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n de\u011ferlendirilmesini \u00f6neriyoruz. \u00c7ift ekonomide e\u015fzamanl\u0131 yava\u015flama d\u00f6nemlerinde kur opsiyonlar\u0131nda z\u0131mni volatilite tarihsel olarak y\u00fckseldi\u011finden, ge\u00e7ici y\u00fckseli\u015flerde prim satmaya dayal\u0131 stratejiler cazip hale gelebilir. Yakla\u015fan politika kararlar\u0131 s\u00fcrecinde y\u00f6n bulmak i\u00e7in kritik destek ve diren\u00e7 seviyeleri etraf\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131 stop-loss uygulamalar\u0131na odaklanmal\u0131y\u0131z.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" USD\/JPY Asya\u2019da 159,10\u2019a geriledi: Japonya 2\u00c7 GSYH\u2019si beklenti alt\u0131, ABD perakende sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 sert d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Dolar zay\u0131fl\u0131yor, Fed s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma ihtimali %33. T\u00fcrevde iron condor\/put, riskte bariyer opsiyonlar\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49997,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52870","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t