Reuters\u2019a g\u00f6re \u0130srail, ay\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda operasyonlar\u0131n\u0131 azaltmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan L\u00fcbnan\u2019da hava sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 yeniden ba\u015flatt\u0131. \u0130srail Savunma Kuvvetleri, L\u00fcbnan\u2019\u0131n g\u00fcneyinde \u201ck\u0131demli Hizbullah komutan\u0131\u201d olarak tan\u0131mlanan Ebu Hasan Alaa\u2019n\u0131n \u00f6ld\u00fcr\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Haziran ba\u015f\u0131nda var\u0131lan ate\u015fkesten bu yana en \u00f6l\u00fcmc\u00fcl tur olarak kayda ge\u00e7en son sald\u0131r\u0131larda 11 ki\u015fi hayat\u0131n\u0131 kaybetti. \u0130srail Ba\u015fbakan\u0131 Binyamin Netanyahu, sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n cumartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc Hizbullah\u2019\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7 askeri yaralayan sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan geldi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi; \u0130srail ise pazar g\u00fcn\u00fc, tehdit edilmesi halinde \u0130ran destekli vekil grubu yeniden vuraca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131.<\/p>\n
\u00d6te yandan CNBC, \u0130srail\u2019in Gazze\u2019de hava sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc bir d\u00f6nemde ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n temsilcilerinin pazar g\u00fcn\u00fc Kahire\u2019de M\u0131s\u0131rl\u0131, Katarl\u0131 ve T\u00fcrk arabulucularla bir araya gelerek Trump\u2019\u0131n Gazze bar\u0131\u015f plan\u0131n\u0131 ilerletmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bildirdi. Bir diplomata g\u00f6re, Hamas yetkilileri Trump\u2019\u0131n temsilcisi ve damad\u0131 Jared Kushner ile Trump\u2019\u0131n Gazze i\u00e7in Bar\u0131\u015f Kurulu temsilcisi Nickolay Mladenov\u2019un kat\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 baz\u0131 oturumlara i\u015ftirak etti. \u0130srailli \u00fcst d\u00fczey bir yetkili, Kushner ve Mladenov\u2019un pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc Netanyahu ile g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmesinin beklendi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi; Netanyahu 9 A\u011fustos\u2019ta Trump\u2019\u0131n son Gazze yol haritas\u0131n\u0131 \u201ckabul edilemez\u201d olarak nitelemi\u015fti. Trump ayr\u0131ca Pentagon\u2019a G\u00fcney Kore ile y\u0131ll\u0131k tatbikatlar\u0131n azalt\u0131lmas\u0131 talimat\u0131n\u0131 verdi; WTI ise %0,62 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 81,90 dolara geriledi.<\/p>\n
\u0130srail\u2019in L\u00fcbnan\u2019daki hava sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rmas\u0131yla jeopolitik riskte keskin bir y\u00fckseli\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; bu durum petrol piyasalar\u0131n\u0131 teyakkuzda tutuyor. WTI\u2019nin 81,90 dolara s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 geri \u00e7ekilmesine ra\u011fmen, \u0130ran destekli gruplar\u0131 da i\u00e7ine alabilecek daha geni\u015f bir \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma ihtimali bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn kal\u0131c\u0131 olmayabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Tarihsel olarak Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki ani t\u0131rmanmalar, CBOE Ham Petrol Volatilite Endeksi\u2019ni (OVX) g\u00fcnler i\u00e7inde %15 ila %25 art\u0131rabiliyor; bu da k\u0131sa pozisyon ta\u015f\u0131yanlar i\u00e7in ciddi \u201cshort squeeze\u201d riskleri do\u011furabilir.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n, WTI ham petrolde yak\u0131n vadeli al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 sat\u0131n almak gibi uzun volatilite stratejilerine y\u00f6nelmesini \u00f6neriyoruz. Eyl\u00fcl veya Ekim 2026 vadeli, kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 piyasan\u0131n \u00fczerinde (out-of-the-money) call opsiyonlar\u0131, ani yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131 yakalamam\u0131z\u0131 sa\u011flarken a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riski s\u0131n\u0131rlamam\u0131za imkan tan\u0131r. Kahire\u2019deki y\u00fcksek \u00f6nem d\u00fczeyine sahip g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda sert dalgalanmalar beklenmeli ve korunmas\u0131z k\u0131sa pozisyon ta\u015f\u0131maktan ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmal\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Kahire\u2019de ABD\u2019li arabulucular\u0131n bulunmas\u0131 umut verse de, ge\u00e7mi\u015f Orta Do\u011fu bar\u0131\u015f m\u00fczakerelerindeki tarihsel e\u011filimler diplomatik \u00e7abalar\u0131n enerji piyasalar\u0131n\u0131 an\u0131nda so\u011futmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. \u00d6nceki y\u00fcksek gerilim d\u00f6nemlerinde petrol, kal\u0131c\u0131 bir ate\u015fkes resmen imzalanana kadar varil ba\u015f\u0131na 5 ila 10 dolarl\u0131k jeopolitik risk primini korudu. \u015eu anda da benzer bir primin fiyatlanmaya devam etmesini bekliyoruz; bu nedenle 80 dolara do\u011fru olas\u0131 geri \u00e7ekilmeler vadeli i\u015flemler yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir al\u0131m f\u0131rsat\u0131 olabilir.<\/p>\n
Enerji vadeli i\u015flemlerinin \u00f6tesinde, riski \u00e7e\u015fitlendirmek i\u00e7in alt\u0131n opsiyonlar\u0131 ve g\u00fcvenli liman para birimi t\u00fcrevleri de de\u011ferlendirilmeli. Alt\u0131n, tarihsel olarak Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki b\u00fcy\u00fck t\u0131rmanmalar\u0131n ilk ay\u0131nda %6\u2019n\u0131n \u00fczerinde y\u00fckseli\u015f g\u00f6sterebildi\u011finden, de\u011ferli metallerde uzun (call) pozisyonlar \u015fu a\u015famada daha cazip g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda piyasay\u0131 tamamen son dakika haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n y\u00f6nlendirece\u011fi bir d\u00f6neme girerken kald\u0131ra\u00e7 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck tutulmal\u0131 ve pozisyon b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fckleri s\u0131n\u0131rlanmal\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da tansiyon yeniden y\u00fckseliyor: \u0130srail L\u00fcbnan\u2019da hava sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131, 11 \u00f6l\u00fc. Gazze\u2019de Kahire diplomasisi s\u00fcrerken WTI 81,90 dolara indi; volatilite ve risk primi g\u00fcndemde.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50007,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52862","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t