ABD Hazine tahvil getirileri, Kuzey Amerika i\u015flemlerinde verinin ard\u0131ndan g\u00f6r\u00fclen ilk hareketlerin y\u00f6n de\u011fi\u015ftirmesiyle Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc y\u00fckseldi; ABD Perakende Sat\u0131\u015flar\u2019daki zay\u0131flama dolar\u0131 bask\u0131larken, petrol jeopolitik temkinle g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kald\u0131. 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil getirisi 4 baz puan\u0131n \u00fczerinde art\u0131\u015fla %4,692\u2019ye \u00e7\u0131karken, ham petroldeki y\u00fckseli\u015f e\u015flik etti; WTI %1,50 art\u0131\u015fla 82,39 dolara y\u00fckseldi. ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY) %0,31\u2019in \u00fczerinde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 99,63\u2019e geriledi ve haftay\u0131 neredeyse yatay kapatmaya haz\u0131rlan\u0131yordu.<\/p>\n\n
Perakende Sat\u0131\u015flar ayl\u0131k bazda %-0,6 ile %0,1 b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentisini ka\u00e7\u0131rd\u0131 ve Haziran\u2019daki %0,2\u2019nin de alt\u0131nda kald\u0131; zay\u0131fl\u0131k, Amazon\u2019un Prime Day\u2019i Haziran\u2019a \u00e7ekmesinin ard\u0131ndan \u00e7evrimi\u00e7i sat\u0131\u015flardaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe ba\u011flan\u0131rken, gerileyen benzin fiyatlar\u0131 da veriyi a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekti. Michigan \u00dcniversitesi T\u00fcketici G\u00fcveni endeksi A\u011fustos\u2019ta 55,2\u2019den 51,0\u2019e gerilerken, enflasyon beklentileri de\u011fi\u015fmedi. 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k T-note getirisi \u00f6nce geriledi, ard\u0131ndan toparlanarak 2 baz puan art\u0131\u015fla %4,17\u2019ye y\u00fckseldi; para piyasalar\u0131 Aral\u0131k 2026 toplant\u0131s\u0131nda Fed faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %63 olarak fiyatlad\u0131. Yakla\u015fan ABD verileri aras\u0131nda konut verileri, ADP \u0130stihdam De\u011fi\u015fimi 4 haftal\u0131k ortalamas\u0131, haftal\u0131k i\u015fsizlik ba\u015fvurular\u0131 ve \u00f6nc\u00fc PMI\u2019lar yer al\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n
Bat\u0131 Teksas tipi (WTI) ham petrol Orta Do\u011fu gerilimleri e\u015fli\u011finde 82,39 dolar civar\u0131nda seyrederken, t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lara enerji vadeli i\u015flemleri \u00fczerinde al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131ndan yararlanmay\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Tarihsel veriler, arz zincirlerinin k\u0131r\u0131lgan kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemlerde jeopolitik risk primlerinin petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 h\u0131zla 90 dolar e\u015fi\u011fine do\u011fru itebildi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Bo\u011fa call spread\u2019leri kullanarak a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riskimizi s\u0131n\u0131rlarken, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda olas\u0131 ani emtia s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131na pozisyon alabiliriz.<\/p>\n\n
10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil getirisinin %4,692 seviyesine y\u00fckselmesi ile t\u00fcketici g\u00fcveninin 51,0\u2019a zay\u0131flamas\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki ayr\u0131\u015fma, tahvil piyasas\u0131nda y\u00fcksek oynakl\u0131\u011fa i\u015faret ediyor. Para piyasalar\u0131 h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda Aral\u0131k 2026 toplant\u0131s\u0131na kadar bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimalini %63 olarak fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan, merkez bankas\u0131 politikas\u0131ndaki ani kaymalara kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in SOFR opsiyonlar\u0131nda i\u015flem yapmay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmeliyiz. Yakla\u015fan \u00f6nc\u00fc PMI\u2019lar ve konut verileri, perakendedeki yava\u015flamaya ra\u011fmen yap\u0131\u015fkan enflasyona i\u015faret ederse, Hazine tahvili vadeli i\u015flemlerinde k\u0131sa \u043f\u043e\u0437\u0438isyonlar k\u00e2r sa\u011flayabilir.<\/p>\n\n
Ayr\u0131ca, Perakende Sat\u0131\u015flar\u2019da %-0,6\u2019l\u0131k hayal k\u0131r\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131 yaratan daralman\u0131n ard\u0131ndan 99,63\u2019e gerileyen ABD Dolar Endeksi\u2019ndeki zay\u0131flamay\u0131 da ele almal\u0131y\u0131z. Tarihsel olarak, dolar endeksi psikolojik 100 seviyesinin alt\u0131na indi\u011finde \u00e7o\u011fu zaman ilave teknik sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 tetikler. Bu e\u011filimden faydalanmak i\u00e7in DXY \u00fczerinde sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonu almay\u0131 veya maj\u00f6r d\u00f6viz paritelerinde uzun pozisyonlara girmeyi \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Piyasalar \u015fa\u015f\u0131rtt\u0131: Zay\u0131f ABD Perakende Sat\u0131\u015flar dolar\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekerken, tahvil getirileri y\u00f6n de\u011fi\u015ftirip y\u00fckseldi. 10Y %4,692\u2019ye \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; WTI jeopolitik primle 82,39 dolara t\u0131rmand\u0131, DXY 99,63\u2019e indi.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49977,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52856","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t