Meksika pesosu, cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc USD\/MXN\u2019yi 17,00 seviyesinin alt\u0131na ta\u015f\u0131yarak 24 ay\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcklerine itti; parite 16,97\u2019yi g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra 17,02\u2019ye toparland\u0131. ABD verilerindeki yumu\u015fak seyir dolar\u0131 bask\u0131lad\u0131: Perakende Sat\u0131\u015flar ayl\u0131k bazda %0,6 gerileyerek %0,1 art\u0131\u015f beklentisinin ve haziran ay\u0131ndaki %0,2\u2019nin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. Michigan \u00dcniversitesi t\u00fcketici g\u00fcven endeksi 55,2\u2019den 51\u2019e d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; enflasyon beklentileri ise b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde de\u011fi\u015fmedi. T\u00fcketici ve \u00fcretici fiyatlar\u0131nda s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 gerilemeyle birlikte piyasalar 2026\u2019da bir Fed faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 fiyatlamaktan \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; eyl\u00fcl i\u00e7in olas\u0131l\u0131klar %32 art\u0131\u015f, %68 de\u011fi\u015fiklik olmamas\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde olu\u015ftu.<\/p>\n
Meksika\u2019da takvim Banxico toplant\u0131 tutanaklar\u0131 ve Perakende Sat\u0131\u015flar\u2019a d\u00f6nerken, ABD\u2019de konut verileri, ADP \u0130stihdam De\u011fi\u015fimi d\u00f6rt haftal\u0131k ortalamas\u0131, i\u015fsizlik maa\u015f\u0131 ba\u015fvurular\u0131 ve \u00f6nc\u00fc PMI\u2019lar izlenecek. Grafiklerde USD\/MXN 17,0294 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc; 17,3775 civar\u0131nda k\u00fcmelenen \u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc hareketli ortalaman\u0131n alt\u0131nda ve 17,4197 yak\u0131n\u0131ndaki a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc diren\u00e7 \u00e7izgisinin alt\u0131nda kal\u0131rken, 14 g\u00fcnl\u00fck RSI 27 civar\u0131nda seyretti. A\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nde ana referans 15,6176 olurken, toparlanma i\u00e7in \u00f6nce 17,3775\u2019in geri al\u0131nmas\u0131 ve ard\u0131ndan 17,4197\u2019nin a\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 gerekecek.<\/p>\n
USD\/MXN paritesi 17,02 civar\u0131nda iki y\u0131l\u0131n diplerine yak\u0131n seyrederken, t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda artan volatiliteye haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. ABD perakende sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n %0,6 d\u00fc\u015fmesi ve t\u00fcketici g\u00fcveninin zay\u0131flamas\u0131, piyasan\u0131n Fed\u2019in b\u00fcy\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131kla faizleri sabit tutaca\u011f\u0131na ikna olmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7t\u0131; eyl\u00fclde \u201cpas\u201d olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u015fu anda %68 seviyesinde. Bu makro kaymay\u0131, \u00f6zellikle parite kritik hareketli ortalamalar\u0131n alt\u0131nda seyrederken, peso lehine e\u011filimin s\u00fcrmesine y\u00f6nelik pozisyonlanma i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli bir f\u0131rsat olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda %10,50 ile y\u00fcksek seviyede bulunan politika faizini ne kadar s\u00fcre koruyaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 anlamak i\u00e7in yakla\u015fan Banxico toplant\u0131 tutanaklar\u0131n\u0131 yak\u0131ndan izlemek gerekiyor. ABD Federal Fonlar faiziyle kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda 500 baz puan\u0131n \u00fczerindeki bu b\u00fcy\u00fck getiri fark\u0131, Meksika pesosunu ta\u015f\u0131ma i\u015flemleri (carry trade) i\u00e7in olduk\u00e7a cazip k\u0131lmaya devam ediyor. T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131, riski s\u0131n\u0131rlarken a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketten faydalanmak amac\u0131yla k\u0131sa vadeli USD\/MXN sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 kullanarak bu ortam\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir.<\/p>\n
Teknik a\u00e7\u0131dan bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, USD\/MXN i\u00e7in g\u00fcnl\u00fck RSI 27\u2019ye gerileyerek paritenin belirgin \u015fekilde a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131m b\u00f6lgesinde oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. Baz\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar 17,37 diren\u00e7 seviyesine do\u011fru ge\u00e7ici bir d\u00fczeltme tepki y\u00fckseli\u015fi bekleyebilir; ancak biz, k\u0131sa vadeli y\u00fckseli\u015flerin yeni k\u0131sa pozisyonlar olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Tarihsel olarak g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f trendinde RSI\u2019\u0131n 30\u2019un alt\u0131na inmesi, ivmenin fiyat\u0131 daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelere ta\u015f\u0131mas\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131k\u00e7a beraberinde getiriyor; bu da mevcut durumda 15,61 civar\u0131ndaki uzun vadeli destekle \u00f6rt\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca ticaret m\u00fczakerelerinin izlenmesini \u00f6neriyoruz; \u00f6zellikle Meksika Ekonomi Bakan\u0131 Marcelo Ebrard\u2019\u0131n Meksika\u2019da \u00fcretilen ara\u00e7lara uygulanan %25\u2019lik tarifede indirim talep etmesinin ard\u0131ndan. ABD\u2019nin bu tarifeleri gev\u015fetmeyi kabul etmesi, Meksika\u2019n\u0131n imalat sekt\u00f6r\u00fcne y\u00f6nelik do\u011frudan yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mlarda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir dalgay\u0131 tetikleyerek pesoyu daha da destekleyebilir. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n, ticaret kaynakl\u0131 ani oynakl\u0131\u011fa kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in, olas\u0131 sert k\u0131r\u0131lma hareketlerinden faydalanabilmek ad\u0131na Meksika pesosu \u00fczerinde \u201cparan\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda\u201d (out-of-the-money) al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 sat\u0131n alarak hedge etmelerini tavsiye ediyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Peso f\u0131rt\u0131nas\u0131 s\u00fcr\u00fcyor: USD\/MXN 17 alt\u0131na inip 2 y\u0131l\u0131n dibini test etti. Zay\u0131f ABD verileri Fed \u201cpas\u201d\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi. Banxico tutanaklar\u0131, carry trade ve 17,37\/17,42 diren\u00e7leri izlenecek.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49971,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52855","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t