ABD Emtia Vadeli \u0130\u015flemler Ticaret Komisyonu (CFTC) verileri, S&P 500 net pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131n 11,3 bin seviyesine y\u00fckselerek \u00f6nceki -27,3 bin seviyesinden tersine d\u00f6nd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6steriyor. Bu hareket, bir \u00f6nceki okuman\u0131n s\u0131f\u0131r\u0131n alt\u0131nda kalmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan pozisyonlanma dengesini yeniden pozitif b\u00f6lgeye ta\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n
En son CFTC verileri, piyasa duyarl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131nda sert bir de\u011fi\u015fime i\u015faret ediyor: Ticari olmayan (non-commercial) net pozisyonlar -27,3 bin kontratl\u0131k net k\u0131sa pozisyondan 11,3 bin kontratl\u0131k net uzun pozisyona d\u00f6nm\u00fc\u015f durumda. Bu dramatik pivotun, b\u00fcy\u00fck spek\u00fclat\u00f6rlerin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 kapat\u0131p art\u0131k piyasay\u0131 yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nde kovalamaya ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n, k\u0131sa pozisyon kapama (short-covering) kaynakl\u0131 bu ralli A\u011fustos sonuna uzarken S&P 500\u2019de yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentumun devam\u0131na g\u00f6re pozisyon almas\u0131 gerekir.<\/p>\n\n
Tarihsel olarak A\u011fustos sonu ve Eyl\u00fcl, y\u0131l\u0131n en zay\u0131f d\u00f6nemleri olarak bilinir; S&P 500, son birka\u00e7 on y\u0131lda Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda ortalama %1,2 gerileme kaydetmi\u015ftir. Ancak b\u00fcy\u00fck spek\u00fclat\u00f6rler mevsimsel olarak zay\u0131f bu d\u00f6nemlerde net uzun tarafa ge\u00e7ti\u011finde, \u00e7o\u011fu zaman perakende yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 haz\u0131rl\u0131ks\u0131z yakalayan kontraryen bir ralli tetiklenebilir. Ge\u00e7mi\u015fte benzer duyarl\u0131l\u0131k de\u011fi\u015fimleri, kurumsal al\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n sermaye yeniden tahsisine zorlanmas\u0131yla birlikte birka\u00e7 hafta s\u00fcren kal\u0131c\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015flere yol a\u00e7m\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n
Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc daha g\u00fcvenli \u015fekilde de\u011ferlendirmek i\u00e7in, yaz sonuna \u00f6zg\u00fc y\u00fcksek volatiliteye kar\u015f\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lgan olabilen do\u011frudan al\u0131m (call) opsiyonu almaktan ka\u00e7\u0131nmay\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Bunun yerine, Eyl\u00fcl sonu vadeli bo\u011fa al\u0131m spread\u2019leri (bull call spread) kullanarak yukar\u0131 hareketten faydalan\u0131rken riski s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 tutabiliriz. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, spek\u00fclatif momentumdan k\u00e2r etme imk\u00e2n\u0131 sa\u011flarken ani ve k\u0131sa vadeli piyasa geri \u00e7ekilmelerinde zarar g\u00f6rme riskini azalt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" S&P 500\u2019de CFTC net pozisyonlar\u0131 -27,3 binden 11,3 bine d\u00f6nerek g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc duyarl\u0131l\u0131k pivotu verdi: short-covering rallisi s\u00fcrebilir. Mevsimsellik zay\u0131fken kontraryen y\u00fckseli\u015f riski; Eyl\u00fcl bull call spread \u00f6nerisi.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50055,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52846","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t