MUFG\u2019nin Asya FX Weekly raporunda, \u00c7in\u2019in zay\u0131f 2\u00c7 GSYH verisinin ard\u0131ndan temmuz ay\u0131 faaliyet g\u00f6stergelerinin, \u00c7in Yuan\u0131 ve daha geni\u015f b\u00f6lgesel d\u00f6viz piyasalar\u0131nda k\u0131sa vadeli hareketleri y\u00f6nlendirmesinin beklendi\u011fi belirtildi. Notta, sabit sermaye yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131nda s\u00fcregelen zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011fa ve gayrimenkul sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde devam eden bask\u0131ya i\u015faret edildi. Ayr\u0131ca i\u00e7 talebin istikrara kavu\u015fup kavu\u015fmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve \u00c7in Halk Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (PBOC) CNY\u2019de ilave de\u011ferlenmeyi kabullenmeye haz\u0131r olup olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 konusundaki belirsizlik vurguland\u0131.<\/p>\n
Rapora g\u00f6re, beklentilerin alt\u0131nda kalacak \u00c7in faaliyet verileri, b\u00f6lgesel risk i\u015ftah\u0131 \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratabilir ve \u00c7in\u2019in b\u00fcy\u00fcme g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcne en yak\u0131ndan ba\u011fl\u0131 para birimlerini olumsuz etkileyebilir. PBOC\u2019nin g\u00fcnl\u00fck fixing mekanizmas\u0131 \u00fczerinden USD\/CNY\u2019yi a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nlendirdi\u011fi ifade edildi. Metinde ayr\u0131ca, i\u00e7eri\u011fin bir yapay zek\u00e2 arac\u0131 kullan\u0131larak \u00fcretildi\u011fi ve ard\u0131ndan bir edit\u00f6r taraf\u0131ndan g\u00f6zden ge\u00e7irildi\u011fi bilgisi de yer ald\u0131.<\/p>\n
\u00c7in\u2019in temmuz ay\u0131 faaliyet verilerinin a\u011fustos ortas\u0131ndaki a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirirken, t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n Asya para birimi piyasalar\u0131nda artan oynakl\u0131\u011fa haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131 gerekiyor. \u00c7in\u2019in sanayi \u00fcretimi temmuzda y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda zay\u0131f bir performansla %4,5 artt\u0131; beklentileri kar\u015f\u0131lamad\u0131 ve 2\u00c7\u2019deki %4,0\u2019l\u0131k zay\u0131f GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin ge\u00e7ici bir sapma olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 teyit etti. Offshore Yuan\u2019daki (CNH) ani bir de\u011fer kayb\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli USD\/CNH al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Tarihsel olarak Avustralya Dolar\u0131 ve G\u00fcney Kore Wonu gibi b\u00f6lgesel \u201cproxy\u201d para birimleri, \u00c7in makroekonomik s\u00fcrprizleriyle %70 d\u00fczeyinde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc pozitif korelasyon g\u00f6sterdi. \u00c7in\u2019de gayrimenkul yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n bu y\u0131l \u015fu ana kadar y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f bazda %10\u2019un \u00fczerinde gerilemesiyle, emtia ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcnler belirgin bi\u00e7imde k\u0131r\u0131lgan durumda. S\u00fcregelen b\u00f6lgesel bask\u0131dan faydalanmak i\u00e7in AUD\/USD paritesinde sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonu al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
\u00c7in Halk Bankas\u0131, g\u00fcnl\u00fck USD\/CNY fixingini piyasa tahminlerinin \u00fczerinde (daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc) belirlemeyi istikrarl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde s\u00fcrd\u00fcrerek son d\u00f6nemde kuru h\u0131zl\u0131 sermaye \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6nlemek amac\u0131yla 7,15 seviyesi civar\u0131nda tutuyor. Bu agresif savunma, i\u015flem band\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131rarak k\u0131sa vadede straddle sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 gibi oynakl\u0131k satmaya dayal\u0131 stratejileri olduk\u00e7a k\u00e2rl\u0131 hale getiriyor. Bununla birlikte, merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n zorlanan ihracat\u0131 desteklemek i\u00e7in Yuan\u2019\u0131n zay\u0131flamas\u0131na izin vermeye karar vermesi halinde, ani bir politika de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi riskine kar\u015f\u0131 temkinli olunmal\u0131.<\/p>\n
Faiz t\u00fcrevleri taraf\u0131nda i\u015flem yapanlar i\u00e7in, Asya genelinde ilave parasal gev\u015feme beklentisiyle pozisyon al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz. \u00c7in\u2019de i\u00e7 talebin son derece zay\u0131f kalmas\u0131 nedeniyle, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n temel kredi faizlerini 10-15 baz puan daha indirmesini bekliyoruz. Swap yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n, b\u00f6lgesel politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n yava\u015flayan ekonomilerini destekleme bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131yla daha yatay (flatter) bir getiri e\u011frisi senaryosuna y\u00f6nelmesi uygun olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" \u00c7in\u2019in zay\u0131f makro verileri Asya FX\u2019te oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor: CNY\/CNH ve proxy\u2019ler (AUD, KRW) bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda. MUFG, USD\/CNH call ve AUD\/USD put \u00f6neriyor; PBOC fixing savunmas\u0131 s\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49981,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52841","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t