USD\/JPY 159,40 civar\u0131nda yatay seyretti ve ABD T\u00fcketici G\u00fcveni verisinin zay\u0131f gelmesinin Dolar\u2019\u0131 bask\u0131lamas\u0131na ra\u011fmen parite g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015f seviyesinden uzakla\u015fmad\u0131. Michigan \u00dcniversitesi\u2019nin \u00f6nc\u00fc endeksi A\u011fustos\u2019ta 55,2\u2019den 51\u2019e gerileyerek 54,5\u2019lik piyasa beklentisinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131; Beklentiler bile\u015feni de 50,6\u2019ya indi. Bu zay\u0131fl\u0131k, daha \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 enflasyon ve zay\u0131f Perakende Sat\u0131\u015flar verisinin ard\u0131ndan geldi; Dolar Endeksi\u2019ni (DXY) a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekerken USD\/JPY \u00fczerindeki ola\u011fan a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131y\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Temmuz sonu ve A\u011fustos ba\u015f\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen rekor d\u00fczeydeki ortak ABD\u2013Japonya m\u00fcdahalesinin yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 destek etkisi zay\u0131flad\u0131. Tokyo\u2019dan ilave ad\u0131m gelmemesiyle Japon Yeni \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131 s\u00fcrerken, daha yumu\u015fak bir USD ile daha zay\u0131f bir JPY\u2019nin etkisi paritenin bant i\u00e7inde kalmas\u0131na neden oldu. 4 saatlik grafikte parite 159,38\u2019den i\u015flem g\u00f6rerek 159,33\u2019teki 20 periyotluk basit hareketli ortalaman\u0131n (SMA) \u00fczerinde tutunurken, 160,20\u2019deki 100 periyotluk SMA\u2019n\u0131n alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. 159,39 direncinin alt\u0131nda oyalanan paritede G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi (14) yakla\u015f\u0131k 56 seviyesindeydi; diren\u00e7ler 159,39\u2019un ard\u0131ndan 159,58 ve 160,20 olarak, destekler ise 159,33\u2019\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan 159,20 ve 159,10 olarak izlendi.<\/p>\n
USD\/JPY 159,40 civar\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015f kal\u0131rken, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n bant i\u00e7i stratejilere haz\u0131rlanmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Hem ABD Dolar\u0131 hem de Japon Yeni yap\u0131sal zay\u0131fl\u0131k ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan, taraflardan hi\u00e7biri belirgin bir trend olu\u015fturacak momentuma sahip de\u011fil. Tarihsel olarak bu d\u00f6viz \u00e7iftinde her iki taraf\u0131n e\u015f zamanl\u0131 zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemlerde ima edilen volatilite d\u00fc\u015fer ve opsiyon sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 odakl\u0131 stratejiler daha y\u00fcksek getiri potansiyeli sunar.<\/p>\n
K\u0131sa volatilite kurgular\u0131n\u0131n (\u00f6rne\u011fin iron condor) kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 ve d\u0131\u015f bant s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131n\u0131n 159,10 ve 160,20 gibi kritik teknik e\u015fiklerin hemen \u00f6tesine yerle\u015ftirilmesini \u00f6neriyoruz. Halihaz\u0131rda USD\/JPY i\u00e7in 1 ayl\u0131k ima edilen volatilite, Temmuz sonundaki yo\u011fun m\u00fcdahale haftalar\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclen %11,5 zirvesinden gerileyerek yakla\u015f\u0131k %8,2\u2019ye indi. Bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, opsiyon primlerinin istikrar kazand\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor ve k\u0131sa vadede bant i\u00e7i i\u015flemleri daha cazip hale getiriyor.<\/p>\n
Y\u00f6nl\u00fc i\u015flem yapanlar i\u00e7in, 160,20\u2019deki 100 periyotluk basit hareketli ortalaman\u0131n veya 159,10\u2019daki yatay deste\u011fin net \u015fekilde k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 teyit edilmeden y\u00fcksek a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 pozisyon al\u0131nmamas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. 160,20 \u00fczerindeki bir k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m, paritede yeniden \u00e7ok y\u0131ll\u0131k zirvelere do\u011fru h\u0131zl\u0131 bir hareketi tetikleyebilir; bu senaryoda k\u0131sa vadeli al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fc yakalamak i\u00e7in verimli bir ara\u00e7 olabilir. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k 159,10 alt\u0131 i\u00e7in koruyucu sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131, Tokyo\u2019dan gelebilecek ani \u015fahin ad\u0131mlara veya ABD\u2019den daha zay\u0131f verilerin gelmesine kar\u015f\u0131 riskten korunma sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n
Bu temkinli duru\u015fu, Michigan T\u00fcketici G\u00fcveni \u00f6nc\u00fc endeksinin 51\u2019e d\u00fc\u015fmesi ba\u015fta olmak \u00fczere son makro g\u00f6stergeler g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bi\u00e7imde destekliyor. Ayr\u0131ca perakende sat\u0131\u015f b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f bazda yaln\u0131zca %1,2 gibi m\u00fctevaz\u0131 bir h\u0131za gerileyerek ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) y\u0131l\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6neminde politikay\u0131 gev\u015fetme bask\u0131s\u0131yla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya kalabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019ndan (BoJ) net bir ad\u0131m veya faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 g\u00f6rmedik\u00e7e, USD\/JPY i\u00e7in en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck diren\u00e7li patikan\u0131n yatay konsolidasyon oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcndeyiz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Dikkat: USD\/JPY 159,40\u2019ta s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131! Zay\u0131f Michigan g\u00fcveni Dolar\u2019\u0131 bask\u0131lasa da JPY k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131\u011f\u0131yla parite bantta kald\u0131; 159,10\u2013160,20 kritik. \u0130ma edilen volatilite %8,2\u2019ye indi; t\u00fcrevde iron condor \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49957,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52840","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t