USD\/SGD, beklentilerin alt\u0131nda gelen ABD \u00dcFE verisinin Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 beklentilerini azaltmas\u0131 ve ABD tahvil getirilerini a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekmesine ra\u011fmen, ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n kay\u0131plar\u0131n\u0131 derinle\u015ftirememesiyle 1,28 civar\u0131nda sakin seyretti. Jeopolitik geli\u015fmeler, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc ivmeyi s\u0131n\u0131rlayan bir unsur olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; Husiler, Saudi Aramco\u2019nun Cazan (Jazan) rafinerisine yeni \u0130HA sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 d\u00fczenlediklerini iddia ederken, ABD ise \u0130ran limanlar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik bir deniz ablukas\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcresiz s\u00fcrd\u00fcrebilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Parite en son 1,28 yak\u0131nlar\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyordu.<\/p>\n\n
Teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm bant hareketine i\u015faret etti. G\u00fcnl\u00fck grafikte momentumun hafif negatif oldu\u011fu, RSI\u2019\u0131n ise yatay seyretti\u011fi belirtildi. Destekler 1,2770 (son dip) ve 1,2740 (61,8% fibo seviyesi) olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Diren\u00e7ler 1,2830\/40 b\u00f6lgesinde (100 ve 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalamalar ile 2026 dibi-tepesi hareketinin 38,2% fibo d\u00fczeltmesiyle uyumlu) ve ard\u0131ndan 1,2870\/90 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda (21 ve 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalamalar ile 23,6% fibo seviyesiyle \u00f6rt\u00fc\u015fen) konumland\u0131.<\/p>\n\n
USD\/SGD\u2019nin 1,28 seviyesinde konsolide olmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesini izlerken, t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda bant-odakl\u0131 stratejilere a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k vermesini \u00f6neriyoruz. Momentumun yatayla\u015fmas\u0131yla birlikte k\u0131sa vadeli iron condor kurulumlar\u0131 ya da 1,2770\u20131,2830 band\u0131n\u0131n al-sat\u0131na y\u00f6nelik i\u015flemler olduk\u00e7a uygulanabilir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, ABD \u00dcretici Fiyat Endeksi verisinin zay\u0131f gelmesinin ard\u0131ndan piyasadaki mevcut karars\u0131zl\u0131ktan faydalanmay\u0131 hedefler.<\/p>\n\n
Bununla birlikte, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki enerji altyap\u0131s\u0131na y\u00f6nelik \u0130HA sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 ve s\u00fcregelen deniz ablukalar\u0131 gibi artan jeopolitik gerilimleri g\u00f6z ard\u0131 etmemek gerekir. Bu t\u00fcr geli\u015fmeler tarihsel olarak \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d ak\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 tetikleyerek ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 h\u0131zla yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131yabiliyor. Buna kar\u015f\u0131 korunma amac\u0131yla, 1,2840 diren\u00e7 seviyesinin \u00fczerine olas\u0131 ani bir k\u0131r\u0131lmaya kar\u015f\u0131 out-of-the-money USD\/SGD al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 elde tutulmas\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
Tarihsel olarak Singapur dolar\u0131 kayda de\u011fer bir dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131k sergiledi; 2024 sonlar\u0131nda 1,30\u2019un alt\u0131na inerek 10 y\u0131l\u0131n zirvelerini g\u00f6rd\u00fc ve s\u0131k\u0131 yerel para politikas\u0131 sayesinde 2025 boyunca g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyrini korudu. Paritenin kritik 1,2740 deste\u011fine do\u011fru geri \u00e7ekilmesi halinde, buray\u0131 al\u0131m (call) opsiyonu almak veya k\u0131sa pozisyonlar\u0131 kapatmak i\u00e7in cazip bir b\u00f6lge olarak de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. Bu tarihsel dip seviyelerde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc savunma ama\u00e7l\u0131 al\u0131mlar bekledi\u011fimizden, do\u011frudan USD k\u0131sa pozisyonu ta\u015f\u0131mak bu a\u015famada y\u00fcksek risk i\u00e7eriyor.<\/p>\n\n
ABD\u2019de daha yumu\u015fak enflasyon verileri uzun vadede dolar i\u00e7in a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir patikaya i\u015faret etse de, yak\u0131n vadede sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n belirgin bi\u00e7imde duraklad\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n Fed\u2019in bir sonraki hamlesini \u00f6l\u00e7mek i\u00e7in yakla\u015fan ABD perakende sat\u0131\u015flar ve istihdam verilerini yak\u0131ndan izlemesini \u00f6neriyoruz. 1,2740\u2019\u0131n alt\u0131na ya da 1,2890\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerine net bir k\u0131r\u0131lma g\u00f6r\u00fclene kadar kald\u0131ra\u00e7 seviyesini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck tutarak bant piyasas\u0131nda prim toplamaya odaklanmak daha uygun olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" S\u00fcrpriz zay\u0131f ABD \u00dcFE\u2019sine ra\u011fmen USD\/SGD 1,28\u2019de s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131: tahvil getirileri d\u00fc\u015fse de dolar \u00e7\u00f6km\u00fcyor; jeopolitik riskler bask\u0131y\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor. Bantta strateji\/condor, destek 1,2770-1,2740; diren\u00e7 1,2830-1,2890.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50005,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52836","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t