Alt\u0131n, ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019ndaki gerilemenin etkisiyle Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,90 y\u00fckselirken, XAU\/USD 4.386 dolarda ve 4.400 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. Dolar Endeksi (DXY), Temmuz ay\u0131na ili\u015fkin daha yumu\u015fak \u00fcretici ve t\u00fcketici enflasyonu, \u0130lk \u0130\u015fsizlik Ba\u015fvurular\u0131\u2019ndaki s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 art\u0131\u015f ve zay\u0131flayan perakende sat\u0131\u015f verilerinin Fed\u2019in daha s\u0131k\u0131 politika izleyece\u011fi beklentilerini azaltmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan %0,4 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 99,57\u2019ye indi. ABD Ticaret Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 verilerine g\u00f6re Perakende Sat\u0131\u015flar, be\u015f ayl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f serisini sonland\u0131rarak %0,1 art\u0131\u015f beklentisine kar\u015f\u0131n %0,6 geriledi; Kontrol Grubu ise Haziran\u2019daki %0,4\u2019l\u00fck art\u0131\u015f\u0131n ard\u0131ndan %0,4 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Michigan \u00dcniversitesi T\u00fcketici G\u00fcveni 55,2\u2019den 51,0\u2019e indi; bir y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyon beklentisi %4,2\u2019den %4,3\u2019e y\u00fckselirken, be\u015f y\u0131ll\u0131k \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcm %3,3\u2019te sabit kald\u0131.<\/p>\n
Faiz fiyatlamalar\u0131 bu de\u011fi\u015fimi yans\u0131tt\u0131; Prime Terminal\u2019e g\u00f6re swaplar Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %31 olarak fiyatlad\u0131; bu oran ge\u00e7en hafta yakla\u015f\u0131k %55 seviyesindeydi. ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizleri 3,5 baz puan art\u0131\u015fla %4,684\u2019e y\u00fckseldi. Teknik tarafta alt\u0131n, 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019s\u0131 olan 4.386 dolar civar\u0131nda konsolide olurken RSI deste\u011fini koruyor; ancak 4.400 dolardaki diren\u00e7 a\u015f\u0131labilmi\u015f de\u011fil. Bu seviyenin \u00fczerinde 4.450 dolar ve 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA olan 4.504 dolar \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Destek seviyeleri g\u00fcn i\u00e7i dip 4.311 dolar ve 4.300 dolar; ard\u0131ndan 4.202 dolar, 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA olan 4.146 dolar ve 4.100 dolar izleniyor. D\u00fcnya Alt\u0131n Konseyi verilerine g\u00f6re merkez bankalar\u0131 en b\u00fcy\u00fck al\u0131c\u0131 konumunu koruyor; 2022\u2019de yakla\u015f\u0131k 70 milyar dolar de\u011ferinde 1.136 ton alt\u0131n eklediler.<\/p>\n
ABD ekonomik verilerindeki zay\u0131flama ile alt\u0131n piyasas\u0131nda belirgin bir y\u00f6n de\u011fi\u015fimi g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. XAU\/USD, yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,90 y\u00fckselerek 4.386 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken, bu hareketin arkas\u0131nda perakende sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n %0,6 d\u00fc\u015fmesi ve t\u00fcketici g\u00fcveninin 51,0\u2019e gerilemesi yer al\u0131yor; bu da ekonominin beklenenden h\u0131zl\u0131 so\u011fudu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu, Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de Fed faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na y\u00f6nelik bahislerin %55\u2019ten %31\u2019e d\u00fc\u015fmesiyle birlikte \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda volatilitenin artmas\u0131na haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olunmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fi anlam\u0131na geliyor.<\/p>\n
Tarihsel olarak 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizinin %4,68 civar\u0131nda seyretti\u011fi ve faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentilerinin d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fc d\u00f6nemlerde, getiri \u00fcretmeyen varl\u0131klar (alt\u0131n gibi) g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir yukar\u0131 momentum sergileyebiliyor. Ayr\u0131ca son sermaye ak\u0131mlar\u0131na bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n yak\u0131n d\u00f6nemde tek bir y\u0131lda rekor d\u00fczeyde 1.136 ton alt\u0131n almas\u0131, \u00e7e\u015fitlendirme e\u011filiminin s\u00fcrerek metalin a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rlayan bir unsur olmaya devam etti\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n s\u00fcregelen kapanmas\u0131 da dahil mevcut jeopolitik gerilimler dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, g\u00fcvenli liman talebi temel olarak g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kal\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Teknik a\u00e7\u0131dan t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n 4.400 dolardaki kritik psikolojik seviyeyi yak\u0131ndan izlemesini \u00f6neriyoruz. Alt\u0131n h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck Basit Hareketli Ortalama olan 4.386 dolar civar\u0131nda yatay seyrediyor; momentum yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc olsa da al\u0131c\u0131lar daha yukar\u0131 k\u0131rmakta zorland\u0131. 4.400 dolar \u00fczerinde belirgin bir g\u00fcnl\u00fck kapan\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fclmesi halinde, opsiyon ve vadeli i\u015flem yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 i\u00e7in 4.450 dolar ve 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA olan 4.504 dolar hedefleri g\u00fcndeme gelebilir.<\/p>\n
Di\u011fer yandan, fiyat\u0131n bu direnci a\u015famamas\u0131 durumunda k\u0131sa vadeli bir geri \u00e7ekilmeye kar\u015f\u0131 pozisyonlar\u0131n korunmas\u0131 gerekiyor. \u0130lk a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc destek g\u00fcn i\u00e7i dip olan 4.311 dolarda; hemen ard\u0131ndan 4.300 dolarl\u0131k psikolojik taban izleniyor. 4.300 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na sarkma, Temmuz dip seviyesi olan 4.202 dolara do\u011fru daha sert bir \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmeyi tetikleyebilir; bu nedenle mevcut ortamda s\u0131k\u0131 zarar-kes (stop-loss) emirleri risk y\u00f6netimi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan kritik \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki hafta konut verileri, \u00f6nc\u00fc (Flash) PMI\u2019lar ve ADP istihdam raporunu i\u00e7eren yo\u011fun ekonomik takvim \u00f6ncesinde esnek kalmak da \u00f6nemli. Ek zay\u0131fl\u0131k sinyalleri, Fed\u2019in bekle-g\u00f6r duru\u015funu peki\u015ftirerek alt\u0131n\u0131 daha da yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131yabilir. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k beklentileri a\u015fan g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc veriler faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 endi\u015felerini yeniden canland\u0131rarak alt\u0131ndaki son y\u00fckseli\u015fi h\u0131zl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde tersine \u00e7evirebilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Alt\u0131nda r\u00fczg\u00e2r tersine mi d\u00f6n\u00fcyor? Zay\u0131f ABD verileri DXY\u2019yi a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekti, XAU\/USD %0,9 y\u00fckselip 4.386\u2019da tutundu. Fed faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %55\u2019ten %31\u2019e inerken 4.400 direnci izleniyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49999,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52833","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t