ABD hisseleri, iki daha yumu\u015fak enflasyon verisinin S&P 500\u2019\u00fc 7.800\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131mas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc yeni rekorlara ula\u015ft\u0131; ancak Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc gelen veriler bunun kayna\u011f\u0131n\u0131n talep zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret etti. Temmuz perakende sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131, %0,1\u2019lik konsens\u00fcs art\u0131\u015f beklentisine kar\u015f\u0131 %0,6 geriledi; A\u011fustos ay\u0131na ili\u015fkin \u00f6nc\u00fc t\u00fcketici g\u00fcveni de 54,5 beklentisine kar\u015f\u0131 51 olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Dow Jones Sanayi Endeksi 53.900 civar\u0131nda\u2014g\u00fcn i\u00e7i zirvesine yak\u0131n\u2014a\u00e7\u0131ld\u0131 ve bu seviyeyi yeniden a\u015famad\u0131; yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar dezenflasyonun daha yava\u015f t\u00fcketim \u00fczerinden mi geldi\u011fini yeniden de\u011ferlendirdi.<\/p>\n
Yava\u015flama genele yay\u0131ld\u0131: Otomobilsiz sat\u0131\u015flar, %0,2\u2019lik konsens\u00fcs art\u0131\u015f\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 %0,3 d\u00fc\u015ferken, GSYH kontrol grubu bir \u00f6nceki aydaki %0,4 art\u0131\u015f\u0131n ard\u0131ndan %0,4 geriledi. G\u00fcven de Temmuz\u2019daki 55,2\u2019den d\u00fc\u015ferken, beklentiler endeksi 55,4\u2019ten 50,6\u2019ya indi; buna kar\u015f\u0131n bir y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyon beklentileri %4,2\u2019den %4,3\u2019e y\u00fckseldi. \u0130ki y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD tahvil faizi k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli\u011fine %4,10\u2019un alt\u0131na inerek 30 Haziran\u2019dan bu yana en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyeyi g\u00f6r\u00fcrken, 10 ve 30 y\u0131ll\u0131k getiriler s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 y\u00fckseldi. Enerji taraf\u0131nda IEA, K\u00f6rfez\u2019de g\u00fcnl\u00fck 8,3 milyon varillik \u00fcretimin h\u00e2l\u00e2 devre d\u0131\u015f\u0131 oldu\u011funu ve k\u00fcresel arz\u0131n bir y\u0131l \u00f6ncesine g\u00f6re g\u00fcnl\u00fck 6,3 milyon varil daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seyretti\u011fini belirtirken; ABD ham petrol stoklar\u0131n\u0131n 300 milyon varilin alt\u0131nda oldu\u011fu vurguland\u0131. Brent 87,00 dolar civar\u0131nda, WTI ise 81,50 dolar yak\u0131n\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Gelecek hafta HD ve WMT bilan\u00e7olar\u0131; 1,427 milyon ve 1,374 milyon \u00f6nceki seviyelere k\u0131yasla konut ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7lar\u0131 ve izinleri; \u00f6zel istihdam\u0131n d\u00f6rt haftal\u0131k ortalamas\u0131 (bir ay \u00f6nce 15 bin iken 8,25 bin); TS\u0130 18:00\u2019de FOMC tutanaklar\u0131 ve PMI \u00f6nceki de\u011ferleri (imalat 53,9, hizmet 54,6) izlenecek. Teknik seviyeler olarak 53.800, 53.900, 54.100 ve 54.750\u2019nin hemen alt\u0131 diren\u00e7; Stoch RSI yakla\u015f\u0131k 76; 53.700, 53.500, 53.200 destek ve 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA yakla\u015f\u0131k 52.400 olarak belirtildi. 53.800\u2019\u00fcn tavan olu\u015fturmas\u0131 s\u00fcrece a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc e\u011filim \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karken, 53.900 \u00fczerinde g\u00fcnl\u00fck kapan\u0131\u015fla g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn ge\u00e7ersiz olaca\u011f\u0131 ifade edildi.<\/p>\n
Piyasalar\u0131n t\u00fcketici talebindeki ani d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle bo\u011fu\u015fmas\u0131 nedeniyle \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir de\u011fi\u015fime haz\u0131rlanmal\u0131y\u0131z. Enflasyondaki so\u011fuma son d\u00f6nemde S&P 500\u2019\u00fc 7.800\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131m\u0131\u015f olsa da, Temmuz perakende sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131ndaki %0,6\u2019l\u0131k \u015fa\u015f\u0131rt\u0131c\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, bu rahatlaman\u0131n ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan a\u011f\u0131r bir bedeli oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. Dow Jones 53.900 zirvesine geri d\u00f6nmekte zorlan\u0131rken, t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n savunmac\u0131, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir duru\u015fa ge\u00e7mesini \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcketici g\u00fcveninin 51\u2019e \u00e7ak\u0131lmas\u0131 ve bir y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyon beklentilerinin %4,3\u2019e y\u00fckselmesi, opsiyon fiyatlamas\u0131na hen\u00fcz tam yans\u0131mam\u0131\u015f stagflasyon benzeri risklere i\u015faret ediyor. G\u00f6rece ucuz z\u0131mni oynakl\u0131ktan yararlanarak, daha geni\u015f bir geri \u00e7ekilmeye kar\u015f\u0131 korunma amac\u0131yla b\u00fcy\u00fck endekslerde paraya yak\u0131n (near-the-money) sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 al\u0131nabilir. Tarihsel olarak, t\u00fcketici g\u00fcvenindeki benzer sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fler, takip eden ayda hisse piyasalar\u0131nda %5 ile %8 aras\u0131 d\u00fczeltmelere yol a\u00e7t\u0131.<\/p>\n
Tahvil piyasas\u0131 \u015fimdiden tepki veriyor; iki y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizi %4,10\u2019un alt\u0131na inerken yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar gelecekteki faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 fiyatlamadan \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor. Enflasyon tamamen kontrol alt\u0131na al\u0131nmadan \u00f6nce zay\u0131f talep nedeniyle Fed\u2019in muhtemelen duraklamak zorunda kalaca\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in getiri e\u011frisinin dikle\u015fmeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesini bekliyoruz. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, k\u0131sa vadeli Hazine vadeli i\u015flemlerini al\u0131p uzun vadeli tahvilleri satarak e\u011fri dikle\u015ftirici (steepener) stratejileri de\u011ferlendirebilir.<\/p>\n
Enerji t\u00fcrevleri de, WTI\u2019\u0131n 81,50 dolar ve Brent\u2019in 87,00 dolar civar\u0131nda tutunmas\u0131yla bir ba\u015fka y\u00fcksek getiri potansiyelli alan sunuyor. ABD ticari ham petrol stoklar\u0131 k\u0131rk y\u0131l sonra ilk kez 300 milyon varilin alt\u0131na gerileyerek piyasay\u0131 ani arz \u015foklar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 olduk\u00e7a k\u0131r\u0131lgan h\u00e2le getirdi. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019nda jeopolitik gerilimlerin t\u0131rmanmas\u0131 h\u00e2linde olas\u0131 fiyat s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131ndan yararlanmak i\u00e7in ham petrolde al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalar, Walmart ve Home Depot\u2019tan gelecek \u00f6nemli k\u00e2r a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n\u0131n yan\u0131 s\u0131ra son FOMC tutanaklar\u0131 ve PMI\u2019larla bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f senaryosunu test edecek. Perakende bilan\u00e7olar\u0131 t\u00fcketicinin geri \u00e7ekildi\u011fini teyit ederse, piyasan\u0131n kritik destek seviyelerini h\u0131zla k\u0131rmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. K\u0131sa pozisyon giri\u015flerini zamanlamak i\u00e7in bu veri ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 yak\u0131ndan izleyece\u011fiz.<\/p>\n
Uygulama a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan, Dow 53.800\u201353.900 diren\u00e7 b\u00f6lgesinin alt\u0131nda tavan olu\u015fturdu\u011fu s\u00fcrece d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f e\u011filimini korumal\u0131y\u0131z. \u0130lk a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hedeflerimiz 53.500, ard\u0131ndan 53.200 destek seviyesinin daha derin testidir. 53.900 \u00fczerinde herhangi bir g\u00fcnl\u00fck kapan\u0131\u015f bu tezi ge\u00e7ersiz k\u0131larak k\u0131sa pozisyonlar\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 \u015fekilde kapat\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 gerektirir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Rekor sonras\u0131 alarm: ABD\u2019de yumu\u015fak enflasyon rallisi, talep zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131na \u00e7arp\u0131yor. Perakende sat\u0131\u015flar %0,6 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc, g\u00fcven 51\u2019e indi. Dow 53.900\u2019\u00fc a\u015famad\u0131; tahvil faizi gerilerken a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n riski ve koruma \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50051,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52827","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t