EUR\/JPY, Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc %0,15 y\u00fckselerek 184,15 civar\u0131na \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; piyasalar\u0131n Eyl\u00fcl gibi erken bir tarihte Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019ndan (BoJ) faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde ilave s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmay\u0131 fiyatlamas\u0131na ra\u011fmen g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyrini korudu. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, Eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131nda ECB\u2019den bu y\u0131lki ikinci faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n gelmesini genel olarak beklerken, Euro B\u00f6lgesi enflasyon riskleri h\u00e2l\u00e2 yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc e\u011filim g\u00f6steriyor. Eurostat\u2019\u0131n ikinci tahmini, GSYH\u2019nin 2\u00c7\u2019de bir \u00f6nceki \u00e7eyrekteki %0 seviyesinin ard\u0131ndan \u00e7eyreklik bazda %0,4 artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %1 y\u00fckselerek \u00f6nceki \u00e7eyrekte yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc revize edilen %0,5\u2019lik art\u0131\u015ftan h\u0131zland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ortaya koydu.<\/p>\n
\u00c7apraz\u0131n yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fc, Japonya\u2019n\u0131n politika g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc ve Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n ABD ve Japonya\u2019n\u0131n temmuz sonu birlikte m\u00fcdahale etti\u011fini s\u00f6ylemesinin ard\u0131ndan olas\u0131 d\u00f6viz ad\u0131mlar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik artan incelemeyle s\u0131n\u0131rlan\u0131yor. Nordea\u2019n\u0131n yay\u0131mlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 patika, mevduat faizini %3\u2019e ta\u015f\u0131yacak \u00fc\u00e7 adet 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015fa i\u015faret ediyor; bu ad\u0131mlar Eyl\u00fcl, Aral\u0131k ve Mart 2027 i\u00e7in \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Commerzbank ise Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de yaln\u0131zca %2,5\u2019e bir art\u0131\u015f bekliyor ve ard\u0131ndan 2027 sonuna do\u011fru indirimler \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Japonya fiyatlamas\u0131, Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de 25 baz puanl\u0131k BoJ art\u0131\u015f\u0131 i\u00e7in %75\u2019e yak\u0131n bir olas\u0131l\u0131\u011fa i\u015faret ediyor; iki y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD:Japonya swap faiz farklar\u0131 temmuz ortas\u0131ndan bu yana yakla\u015f\u0131k 40 baz puan darald\u0131. DBS, Japonya GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesini 1\u00c7\u2019deki %1,8\u2019e kar\u015f\u0131 2\u00c7 i\u00e7in y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f \u00e7eyreklik bazda %0,8 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyor; USD\/JPY\u2019ye ve Eyl\u00fcl FOMC sonucuna duyarl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n alt\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7iziyor.<\/p>\n
ECB ve BoJ\u2019un kritik Eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131lar\u0131na haz\u0131rlanmas\u0131yla birlikte, EUR\/JPY i\u00e7in son derece belirleyici bir d\u00f6neme girildi\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Parite h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda 184,15 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken, t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n her iki merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n da politika s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131na yakla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 ortamda artan oynakl\u0131\u011fa haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131 gerekiyor. Tarihsel veriler, \u00e7ift tarafl\u0131 faiz kararlar\u0131 g\u00fcndemdeyken EUR\/JPY\u2019nin bir ayl\u0131k ima edilen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131kl\u0131kla ortalama %8,5 seviyesinin belirgin \u015fekilde \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Euro taraf\u0131nda, piyasadaki ayr\u0131\u015fmadan faydalanmak i\u00e7in opsiyon kullan\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz: ECB mevduat faizinin %2,5\u2019te mi zirve yapaca\u011f\u0131 yoksa %3,0\u2019a do\u011fru mu ilerleyece\u011fi tart\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nin y\u0131ll\u0131k %1\u2019lik istikrarl\u0131 GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi, ekonominin ilave s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmay\u0131 kald\u0131rabilecek kadar dayan\u0131kl\u0131 oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. ECB\u2019nin daha h\u0131zl\u0131, \u00e7eyreklik bir faiz art\u0131r\u0131m patikas\u0131na y\u00f6nelmesi durumunda kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flamak i\u00e7in Euro \u00fczerinde \u201cbull call spread\u201d stratejilerinin de\u011ferlendirilmesini \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
\u00d6te yandan Japon Yeni y\u00fcksek duyarl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 koruyor; swap piyasalar\u0131 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de BoJ faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %75 seviyesinde fiyatl\u0131yor. ABD ve Japonya\u2019n\u0131n yak\u0131n d\u00f6nemde a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 Yen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in m\u00fcdahale etmi\u015f olmas\u0131 nedeniyle, ani ve agresif kamu ad\u0131mlar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 korunma gerekiyor. Tek bir seansta 250 pipi rahatl\u0131kla a\u015fabilecek ani a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc s\u0131\u00e7ramalara kar\u015f\u0131, vade d\u0131\u015f\u0131 (out-of-the-money) EUR\/JPY put opsiyonlar\u0131 al\u0131narak hedge edilmesini tavsiye ediyoruz.<\/p>\n
\u0130ki y\u0131ll\u0131k swap farklar\u0131n\u0131n h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda yakla\u015f\u0131k 40 baz puan daralmas\u0131yla birlikte, bu iki para birimi aras\u0131ndaki tarihsel korelasyon da de\u011fi\u015fiyor. N\u00f6tr pozisyon alman\u0131n riskli oldu\u011funa inan\u0131yoruz; bu nedenle her iki y\u00f6nde olas\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lmay\u0131 yakalamak i\u00e7in uzun strangle i\u015flemlerini tercih ediyoruz. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, Eyl\u00fcl\u2019deki merkez bankas\u0131 \u201ckap\u0131\u015fmas\u0131\u201d yakla\u015f\u0131rken ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz oynakl\u0131k geni\u015flemesinden faydalanmay\u0131 sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" EUR\/JPY 184,15\u2019te: Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de ECB ve BoJ kararlar\u0131 \u00f6ncesi kritik e\u015fik! Piyasalar BoJ art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 %75 fiyatl\u0131yor; Euro\u2019da ek s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma beklentisi s\u00fcrerken oynakl\u0131kta sert s\u0131\u00e7rama riski b\u00fcy\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50193,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52823","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t