Alt\u0131n, A\u011fustos\u2019un ilk haftas\u0131nda Ocak\u2019tan bu yana en g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc haftal\u0131k y\u00fckseli\u015fini kaydetmesinin ard\u0131ndan iki ay\u0131n zirvesi olan 4.450 dolar seviyesine yak\u0131n bir noktaya t\u0131rmand\u0131; sonras\u0131nda geri \u00e7ekilerek haftay\u0131 genel olarak yatay ve 4.400 dolar civar\u0131nda tamamlad\u0131. Fiyat hareketinde, ABD verilerindeki yumu\u015fama ve Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda Fed\u2019in ad\u0131m\u0131na ili\u015fkin beklentilerdeki de\u011fi\u015fim belirleyici olurken Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma da \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcms\u00fcz kald\u0131. Piyasalar \u0130ran\u2019a ili\u015fkin resmi a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 g\u00f6rmezden gelirken, dikkatler sava\u015f \u00f6ncesi ortalama 120 olan g\u00fcnl\u00fck ge\u00e7i\u015fin sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc yaln\u0131zca sekize d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fc H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki aksamalara y\u00f6neldi; ayr\u0131ca EIA, 2026 WTI tahminini varil ba\u015f\u0131na 76,26 dolardan 80,88 dolara y\u00fckseltti.<\/p>\n\n
ABD enflasyon verileri dolar \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131y\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc: T\u00dcFE temmuzda y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %3,5\u2019ten %3,4\u2019e gerilerken, ayl\u0131k T\u00dcFE %0,4\u2019l\u00fck d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan %0,1 oldu; \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE ise %0,2 artt\u0131. \u00dcFE %5,5\u2019ten %4,7\u2019ye yava\u015flad\u0131 ve CME FedWatch\u2019a g\u00f6re Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de 25 baz puanl\u0131k faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131, bir hafta \u00f6nce yakla\u015f\u0131k %45 iken %35\u2019in alt\u0131na indi. Teknik tarafta g\u00fcnl\u00fck RSI 60\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerinde kalmaya devam etse de alt\u0131n, 4.390 dolar civar\u0131ndaki 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck basit hareketli ortalaman\u0131n (SMA) \u00fczerinde tutunmakta zorland\u0131; diren\u00e7 4.450 ve 4.500-4.505 band\u0131nda, destekler ise 4.300-4.295, 4.175-4.150 ve 4.000 seviyelerinde bulunuyor. Merkez bankas\u0131 al\u0131mlar\u0131, 2022\u2019de yakla\u015f\u0131k 70 milyar dolar de\u011ferinde 1.136 ton olarak belirtilmi\u015fti.<\/p>\n\n
T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131na, 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck Basit Hareketli Ortalama ile \u00f6rt\u00fc\u015fen kritik 4.390-4.400 dolar band\u0131n\u0131 yak\u0131ndan izlemelerini \u00f6neriyoruz. Alt\u0131n bu destek b\u00f6lgesinin \u00fczerinde sa\u011flam bir taban olu\u015fturabilirse, 4.450 dolardaki son zirveyi hedefleyen k\u0131sa vadeli al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ederiz. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, bu e\u015fi\u011fin alt\u0131na net bir k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m, 4.300 dolar civar\u0131ndaki bir sonraki destek b\u00f6lgesini hedefleyen sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 i\u00e7in cazip bir f\u0131rsat sunabilir.<\/p>\n\n
Bu temkinli duru\u015f anlaml\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc uzun vadeli talep, rezervlerini \u00e7e\u015fitlendirmek i\u00e7in son y\u0131llarda y\u0131ll\u0131k 1.030 tonun \u00fczerinde alt\u0131n alan k\u00fcresel merkez bankalar\u0131 taraf\u0131ndan g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bi\u00e7imde desteklenmeye devam ediyor. \u00d6te yandan Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki s\u00fcregelen \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki g\u00fcnl\u00fck gemi ge\u00e7i\u015flerini ortalama 120 seviyesinden sadece sekize indirerek petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 yukar\u0131 itme riskini art\u0131rd\u0131. Bu tedarik zinciri tehditleri ve enerji kaynakl\u0131 olas\u0131 enflasyon dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, gelecek haftaki S&P Global PMI verileri \u00f6ncesinde straddle gibi volatilite bazl\u0131 stratejilerin kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
Ayr\u0131ca Fed\u2019e y\u00f6nelik de\u011fi\u015fen beklentileri de y\u00f6netmek gerekiyor; zira piyasalar art\u0131k Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimalini %35\u2019in alt\u0131nda fiyatl\u0131yor. Yakla\u015fan Fed toplant\u0131 tutanaklar\u0131, politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n faizleri daha fazla art\u0131rma konusunda isteksiz oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ederse, Hazine tahvil getirilerinde gerileme g\u00f6rebiliriz; bu durum tarihsel olarak getirisi olmayan alt\u0131n i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir destekleyici unsur olur. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar bunu, 4.500 dolar seviyesindeki ana dirence do\u011fru olas\u0131 bir k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 yakalamak \u00fczere y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc call spread pozisyonlar\u0131yla de\u011ferlendirebilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Alt\u0131nda kritik e\u015fik: 4.390-4.400! Zay\u0131flayan ABD enflasyonu ve d\u00fc\u015fen Eyl\u00fcl faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimali fiyat\u0131 4.450\u2019ye yakla\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz riski petrol\u00fc desteklerken opsiyonda call\/put ve straddle \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50174,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52821","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t