Brent petrol ve Avrupa do\u011fal gaz\u0131 bu hafta y\u00fckseldi; ancak Ortado\u011fu\u2019daki arz risklerine farkl\u0131 tepkiler veriyor. Brent, yeniden y\u00f6nlendirilen petrol ak\u0131\u015flar\u0131yla desteklenirken, Avrupa gaz\u0131 Katar\u2019dan kaybedilen LNG hacimleri ve ABD kargolar\u0131n\u0131n Asya\u2019ya y\u00f6nlendirilmesi nedeniyle k\u0131s\u0131tl\u0131 kalmaya devam ediyor; H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan ge\u00e7i\u015f kurallar\u0131n\u0131n revize edilebilece\u011fine ili\u015fkin beklenti belirsizli\u011fi ortadan kald\u0131rmad\u0131 ve \u0130ran \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131ndaki geli\u015fmelere fiyat duyarl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fcksek seyretmeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Temel tarafta, IEA ve OPEC bu y\u0131l i\u00e7in petrol talebi tahminlerini ayr\u0131 ayr\u0131 g\u00fcnl\u00fck 200 bin varil a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekti. IEA art\u0131k talebin g\u00fcnl\u00fck 1,6 milyon varil d\u00fc\u015fece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcrken, OPEC h\u00e2l\u00e2 g\u00fcnl\u00fck 580 bin varil b\u00fcy\u00fcme \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor ve IEA, OPEC+ d\u0131\u015f\u0131 arz\u0131n g\u00fcnl\u00fck 690 bin varil artmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor. Buna kar\u015f\u0131n, K\u00f6rfez b\u00f6lgesindeki \u00fcretim kay\u0131plar\u0131n\u0131n toplam arz\u0131 g\u00fcnl\u00fck 4,3 milyon varil azaltaca\u011f\u0131 tahmin ediliyor; IEA, \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrek a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fcnl\u00fck 1,8 milyon varil olarak hesapl\u0131yor; bu, \u00f6nceki beklentiden g\u00fcnl\u00fck 1 milyon varil daha b\u00fcy\u00fck. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki Pazartesi a\u00e7\u0131klanacak \u00c7in sanayi \u00fcretimi verisinin, Temmuz ham petrol i\u015fleme ve rafineri ko\u015fu oranlar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik tahminlere y\u00f6n vermesi bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda Brent petrol ile Avrupa do\u011fal gaz\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki oynakl\u0131k ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131na pozisyon almas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Brent h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda yeniden y\u00f6nlendirilen ak\u0131\u015flarla desteklenirken, Avrupa gaz\u0131 kaybedilen Katarl\u0131 LNG ve sapt\u0131r\u0131lan ABD kargolar\u0131 nedeniyle yap\u0131sal olarak daha s\u0131k\u0131 ko\u015fullarla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya. Bu ayr\u0131\u015fmadan faydalanmak i\u00e7in Avrupa do\u011fal gaz\u0131nda (TTF) uzun vadeli al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131, Brent petrolde ise iron condor gibi bant-i\u00e7i (range-bound) stratejilerin kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
K\u00fcresel arz istatistikleri derin bir piyasa a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor; IEA \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekte g\u00fcnl\u00fck 1,8 milyon varillik arz yetersizli\u011fi bildiriyor. OPEC+ g\u00f6n\u00fcll\u00fc g\u00fcnl\u00fck 2,2 milyon varillik kesintilerini ne zaman kademeli kald\u0131raca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tart\u0131\u015fsa da, k\u0131sa vadede fiziksel piyasa s\u0131k\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 fiyatlar\u0131 y\u00fcksek tutuyor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n Ortado\u011fu\u2019daki transit koridorlar\u0131nda ani t\u0131rmanma riskine kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in Brent\u2019te yak\u0131n vadeli al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 almas\u0131n\u0131 uygun g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
\u00c7in\u2019in yakla\u015fan sanayi \u00fcretimi verisi, \u00f6zellikle rafineri throughput\u2019unun son d\u00f6nemde g\u00fcnl\u00fck 14 milyon varile do\u011fru gerilemesi nedeniyle, izlenmesi gereken bir sonraki ana kataliz\u00f6r. Bu veriler ekonomik so\u011fuman\u0131n s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6sterirse, k\u00fcresel ham petrol talebi beklentileri muhtemelen bir kez daha a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 revize edilecek. \u00c7in\u2019in i\u015fleme hacimleri toparlanamazsa, en yak\u0131n vadeli (front-month) ham petrol kontratlar\u0131nda taktiksel k\u0131sa pozisyonlar al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Tarihsel olarak Avrupa do\u011fal gaz fiyatlar\u0131 k\u00fcresel arz kaymalar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 olduk\u00e7a hassas oldu; TTF fiyatlar\u0131 son d\u00f6nemde megavat-saat ba\u015f\u0131na yakla\u015f\u0131k 35-40 \u20ac band\u0131nda seyretti. Avrupal\u0131 al\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 LNG kargolar\u0131 i\u00e7in Asya ile agresif \u015fekilde rekabet etmek zorunda olmas\u0131 nedeniyle, herhangi bir ani transit duraksamas\u0131 fiyatlarda h\u0131zl\u0131 s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131 tetikleyecektir. Bu yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc potansiyeli yakalamak ve a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riski s\u0131k\u0131 bi\u00e7imde s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in Avrupa gaz\u0131nda bo\u011fa call spread stratejisinin kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Piyasada kritik ayr\u0131\u015fma: Brent haftay\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fle kapat\u0131rken, Avrupa gaz\u0131 LNG kay\u0131plar\u0131 ve Asya\u2019ya kayan ABD kargolar\u0131yla s\u0131k\u0131. IEA\/OPEC talep revizyonlar\u0131, \u0130ran-H\u00fcrm\u00fcz riski ve \u00c7in verisi volatiliteyi besliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49963,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52819","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t