Kanada\u2019n\u0131n imalat sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 Haziran\u2019da ayl\u0131k bazda %0,1 artt\u0131 ve piyasan\u0131n %0,1\u2019lik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentisini geride b\u0131rakt\u0131. Bu sonu\u00e7, fabrika sekt\u00f6r\u00fcndeki ciroda beklentilere k\u0131yasla s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir iyile\u015fmeye i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n\n
-%0,1\u2019lik tahminin ima etti\u011fi a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc s\u00fcrpriz ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmezken, Haziran verisi marjinal de olsa pozitif geldi. Art\u0131\u015f k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck olsa da veriler, imalat sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n ay boyunca \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclenden daha iyi dayand\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n\n
Haziran imalat sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131ndaki beklenmedik %0,1\u2019lik art\u0131\u015f\u0131, sanayi sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclen %0,1\u2019lik daralmaya k\u0131yasla daha diren\u00e7li seyretti\u011finin bir i\u015fareti olarak de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. Bu s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 pozitif sapma, Kanada Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoC) \u00fczerinde \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda agresif faiz indirimlerine gitme bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n azald\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. T\u00fcrev piyasas\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bunun Kanada Dolar\u0131\u2019na (CAD) k\u0131sa vadeli destek sa\u011flayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131, yak\u0131n vadeli CAD al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 ise cazip k\u0131laca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
Sabit getirili tarafta, Kanada Bankers\u2019 Acceptance (BAX) vadeli i\u015flemlerinin sonbahara y\u00f6nelik daha agresif gev\u015feme beklentilerinin bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 fiyatlamadan \u00e7\u0131karaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Tarihsel olarak, faiz indirim d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fc s\u0131ras\u0131nda imalat verilerinin beklentiyi a\u015fmas\u0131, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n nihai faiz oran\u0131 beklentilerini revize etmesiyle k\u0131sa vadeli tahvil getirilerinin yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc k\u0131p\u0131rdamas\u0131na neden olabiliyor. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede Aral\u0131k 2026 faiz vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda k\u0131sa (short) pozisyonlar\u0131n de\u011ferlendirilmesini \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
\u0130malat raporunun detaylar\u0131, kimyasal \u00fcretim ve ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131k ekipmanlar\u0131 gibi diren\u00e7li alt sekt\u00f6rlerin daha geni\u015f sanayi taban\u0131n\u0131 stabilize etti\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Hisse opsiyonu yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131na, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki iki hafta i\u00e7inde Kanada sanayi ve hammadde borsa yat\u0131r\u0131m fonlar\u0131nda (ETF) z\u0131mni volatilite anomalilerine odaklanmalar\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz. Ayr\u0131ca yurt i\u00e7i bor\u00e7lanma maliyetlerinin daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek kalmaya aday olmas\u0131 nedeniyle, y\u00fcksek kald\u0131ra\u00e7l\u0131 ve faize duyarl\u0131 sekt\u00f6rlerde koruyucu sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonu almak da yerinde olabilir.<\/p>\n\n
2024 sonu ve 2025 ba\u015f\u0131ndaki benzer ekonomik d\u00f6n\u00fcm noktalar\u0131nda, imalat sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131nda k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7ekli pozitif sapmalar\u0131n \u00e7eyrek i\u00e7inde daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc-than-beklenen GSYH verilerinin \u00f6nc\u00fcs\u00fc oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Bu \u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fc s\u00fcrerse, merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n bir sonraki toplant\u0131s\u0131nda art arda bir faiz indirimine gitmek yerine politika faizini sabit tutmas\u0131 m\u00fcmk\u00fcn. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalar\u0131n, \u00f6zellikle Euro ve Japon Yeni ba\u015fta olmak \u00fczere daha zay\u0131f G10 para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 \u201cLoonie\u201dde uzun (long) pozisyon biriktirmek i\u00e7in kullan\u0131labilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" S\u00fcrpriz Kanada verisi: Haziran imalat sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 %0,1 artarak d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentisini a\u015ft\u0131. BoC \u00fczerindeki agresif indirim bask\u0131s\u0131 azalabilir; CAD k\u0131sa vadede destek bulurken, k\u0131sa vade faizlerde yukar\u0131 risk ve BAX fiyatlamas\u0131nda d\u00fczeltme.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50107,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52816","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t