Alt\u0131n, ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n zay\u0131flamas\u0131 ve yak\u0131n vadede Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131raca\u011f\u0131na dair beklentilerin azalmas\u0131yla, haftal\u0131k dip seviye olan 4.311 dolara geriledikten sonra cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc toparland\u0131 ve daha sonra 4.372 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Bu hareket, XAU\/USD\u2019yi per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fclen iki ayl\u0131k zirve olan 4.449 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131nda b\u0131rakt\u0131. ABD verileri \u201cb\u00fcy\u00fcmenin so\u011fudu\u011fu\u201d anlat\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi: Temmuz Perakende Sat\u0131\u015flar ayl\u0131k bazda %0,6 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; %0,1 art\u0131\u015f beklentisine kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k haziranda %0,2 art\u0131\u015f kaydedilmi\u015fti. \u00d6nceki veriler de fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131nda gev\u015femeye i\u015faret etti; T\u00dcFE ve \u00dcFE yava\u015flarken, temmuz tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam (NFP) beklentilerin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131 ve \u00f6nceki ay verileri a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc revize edildi.<\/p>\n\n
K\u0131sa vadeli Hazine tahvili getirileri gerilerken, ABD Dolar Endeksi 100 seviyesinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. Piyasalar eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimalini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcrken, CME FedWatch Tool\u2019a g\u00f6re o toplant\u0131da politikan\u0131n de\u011fi\u015fmeden kalma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %70 olarak fiyatlan\u0131yor. Enflasyon Fed\u2019in %2 hedefinin \u00fczerinde seyretmeye devam ediyor ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131na ili\u015fkin belirsizlik ortam\u0131nda petrol fiyatlar\u0131 y\u00fcksek; bu da uzun vadeli getirileri yukar\u0131da tutarak ileride ek s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma i\u00e7in alan b\u0131rak\u0131yor. Teknik tarafta alt\u0131n 4.386 dolardaki 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019y\u0131 a\u015fmakta zorlan\u0131yor; 4.173 dolardaki 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA destek sunuyor. RSI 62\u2019ye yak\u0131n ve MACD pozitif. Diren\u00e7, Bollinger \u00fcst band\u0131na kadar 4.455 dolarda; a\u015fa\u011f\u0131da izlenecek seviyeler 4.000 dolar ve alt banda yak\u0131n 3.891 dolar.<\/p>\n\n
Bug\u00fcn alt\u0131n\u0131n 4.372 dolar civar\u0131nda seyretti\u011fini; zay\u0131f ABD ekonomik verilerinin faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentilerini azaltmas\u0131yla haftal\u0131k dip olan 4.311 dolardan toparland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Temmuz perakende sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131ndaki %0,6\u2019l\u0131k d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ve so\u011fuyan i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131, ABD Dolar Endeksi\u2019ni kritik 100 seviyesinin alt\u0131na itti. Bu makro de\u011fi\u015fim, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131nda Fed\u2019in faizi sabit tutma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %70 d\u00fczeyinde fiyatlamas\u0131na yol a\u00e7t\u0131.<\/p>\n\n
Tarihsel olarak alt\u0131n, reel getirilerin geriledi\u011fi ve dolar\u0131n zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemlerde ola\u011fan\u00fcst\u00fc iyi performans sergiler; 1970\u2019lerin sonundaki ve 2022\u2019deki enflasyon \u015foklar\u0131 s\u0131ras\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclen g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bo\u011fa ko\u015fular\u0131 buna benzer \u00f6rneklerdir. Bug\u00fcn alt\u0131n, 2024\u2019teki tarihsel ortalama olan yakla\u015f\u0131k 2.300 dolar\u0131n belirgin \u015fekilde \u00fczerinde i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 gerilimi gibi modern jeopolitik risklere kar\u015f\u0131 \u201cnihai korunma arac\u0131\u201d olma \u00f6zelli\u011fini peki\u015ftiriyor. Bu makro ortam\u0131n, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapanlar i\u00e7in y\u00fcksek potansiyelli f\u0131rsatlar yaratabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
Uzun tarafta pozisyon arayan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar i\u00e7in, 4.386 dolardaki 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck Basit Hareketli Ortalama (SMA) seviyesindeki yak\u0131n direncin izlenmesi gerekiyor. Bu seviyenin \u00fczerinde kal\u0131c\u0131 bir k\u0131r\u0131lma ve Bollinger \u00fcst band\u0131 olan 4.455 dolara do\u011fru devam eden hareket, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir al\u0131m sinyali \u00fcretebilir. Bu senaryoda, yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc ivmeyi yakalamak amac\u0131yla \u201cout-of-the-money\u201d al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (call) almak veya uzun vadeli (long) vadeli i\u015flem kontratlar\u0131na girmek de\u011ferlendirilebilir.<\/p>\n\n
Bununla birlikte, y\u00fcksek petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n besledi\u011fi kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyon risklerinin ileride yeni faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 tetikleyebilece\u011fi ve alt\u0131ndaki y\u00fckseli\u015fi s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilece\u011fi unutulmamal\u0131. Alt\u0131n 4.386 dolar bariyerini a\u015famazsa, 4.173 dolardaki 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019ya do\u011fru bir geri \u00e7ekilme g\u00fcndeme gelebilir. Bu olas\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 hareketi de\u011ferlendirmek i\u00e7in, sermayeyi korurken psikolojik 4.000 dolar destek seviyesini hedefleyen ay\u0131 put spread stratejileri kullan\u0131labilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Alt\u0131nda kritik viraj: Zay\u0131f ABD verileri ve d\u00fc\u015fen dolar, onsu 4.311 dipten 4.372\u2019ye ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. Fed\u2019in eyl\u00fclde sabit kalma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %70; 4.386 diren\u00e7, 4.173\/4.000 destek.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50139,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52811","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t