EUR\/USD \u0130\u015flem G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc ve Bant Analizi<\/p>\n
EUR\/USD paritesi 1.1537 civar\u0131nda seyrederken, t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n daha b\u00fcy\u00fck bir a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 hareket \u00f6ncesinde k\u0131sa vadede bant hareketine haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki g\u00fcnlerde 1.1511 ile 1.1545 aras\u0131ndaki yak\u0131n konsolidasyon band\u0131n\u0131n yak\u0131ndan izlenmesini \u00f6neriyoruz. Band\u0131n hangi y\u00f6ne k\u0131r\u0131laca\u011f\u0131, ay\u0131n geri kalan\u0131 i\u00e7in i\u015flem y\u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fc belirleyecek.<\/p>\n
Kur 1.1546 seviyesinin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karsa, 1.1570\u2019e do\u011fru k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli bir d\u00fczeltme y\u00fckseli\u015fini hedeflemeliyiz. T\u00fcrev al\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131 bu h\u0131zl\u0131 yukar\u0131 potansiyeli yakalamak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 kullanabilir. Ancak bu daha y\u00fcksek seviyede g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir diren\u00e7 bekliyoruz; bu da k\u0131sa pozisyon tesis etmek i\u00e7in uygun bir b\u00f6lge haline getiriyor.<\/p>\n
Ana senaryomuz d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6n\u00fcnde; \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda 1.1492\u2019ye do\u011fru geri \u00e7ekilme ve potansiyel olarak 1.1400\u2019e do\u011fru uzama bekliyoruz. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar bunu sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonu alarak veya mevcut band\u0131n \u00fcst\u00fcne yak\u0131n seviyelerde vadeli kontratlarda sat\u0131\u015f yaparak de\u011ferlendirebilir. H4 MACD gibi teknik g\u00f6stergeler \u015fimdiden a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fc i\u015faret ediyor ve sat\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n \u00fcst\u00fcnl\u00fck kazand\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 teyit ediyor.<\/p>\n
Enflasyon Verileri, Fed Beklentileri ve Risk Y\u00f6netimi<\/p>\n
Bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f senaryosu, enflasyonist bask\u0131lar\u0131n hafiflemesiyle destekleniyor; son Temmuz ABD \u00fcretici fiyatlar\u0131 ayl\u0131k bazda %0,0 ile yatay geldi. Ayr\u0131ca k\u00fcresel enerji piyasalar\u0131 istikrar kazand\u0131; Brent petrol fiyatlar\u0131, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki arz endi\u015feleri yat\u0131\u015fmaya ba\u015flad\u0131k\u00e7a 75\u201380 dolar band\u0131nda seyrediyor. Bu unsurlar, Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda Federal Rezerv\u2019in faiz art\u0131r\u0131m ihtimalini %35\u2019e kadar d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Enflasyonun so\u011fumas\u0131na ra\u011fmen, \u00f6zellikle d\u00fcnya petrol s\u0131v\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n %20\u2019den fazlas\u0131n\u0131n ge\u00e7ti\u011fi H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 kaynakl\u0131 ani jeopolitik de\u011fi\u015fimlere kar\u015f\u0131 temkinli olmal\u0131y\u0131z. Beklenmedik s\u0131\u00e7ramalara kar\u015f\u0131 sermayeyi korumak i\u00e7in 1.1570\u2019in hemen \u00fczerinde s\u0131k\u0131 zarar-kes (stop-loss) kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Yeni ekonomik veriler geldik\u00e7e olu\u015fabilecek ani dalgalanmalarda daha rahat hareket edebilmek i\u00e7in pozisyon b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fcklerini k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck tutmak faydal\u0131 olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n
EUR\/USD Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc 1.1537 seviyesindeydi; yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de Fed\u2019in ad\u0131m ataca\u011f\u0131na y\u00f6nelik beklentileri d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcren daha yumu\u015fak ABD enflasyon sinyallerini de\u011ferlendirdi. ABD \u00fcretici fiyatlar\u0131 Temmuz\u2019da yatay kald\u0131 ve \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 T\u00dcFE raporuyla birlikte bu durum enflasyon bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n h\u0131zlanmad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Bunun sonucunda piyasalar, Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de 25 baz puanl\u0131k Fed faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 i\u00e7in olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %35 olarak fiyatl\u0131yor; bu oran bir hafta \u00f6nce %55\u2019ti. Ayr\u0131 g\u00f6stergeler, Orta Do\u011fu \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 ve y\u00fcksek enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndan kaynaklanan erken d\u00f6nem enflasyon d\u00fcrt\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn zay\u0131fl\u0131yor olabilece\u011fini ortaya koyuyor; ancak olas\u0131 bir anla\u015fmaya ili\u015fkin belirsizlik ile H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131na dair riskler g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm \u00fczerinde etkisini s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
H4 grafikte parite 1.1511\u20131.1545 konsolidasyon band\u0131na s\u0131k\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015f durumda; 1.1546 civar\u0131ndaki alan tamamlanmaya yak\u0131n g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc k\u0131r\u0131lma 1.1570\u2019i, ard\u0131ndan 1.1492\u2019ye geri \u00e7ekilmeyi i\u015faret eder; a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc k\u0131r\u0131lmada hedef 1.1492 olup, 1.1400\u2019e do\u011fru uzama potansiyeli bulunuyor. MACD\u2019de sinyal \u00e7izgisi s\u0131f\u0131r\u0131n alt\u0131nda ve d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f e\u011filiminde. H1\u2019de fiyat 1.1543\u2019e ula\u015ft\u0131 ve bunun alt\u0131nda konsolide oluyor; \u00e7izilen patika 1.1492\u2019ye d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, 1.1536\u2019ya y\u00fckseli\u015f, ard\u0131ndan 1.1400\u2019a ve muhtemelen 1.1330\u2019a do\u011fru daha a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 hareket \u015feklinde; Stokastik 80\u2019in alt\u0131nda ve 20\u2019ye do\u011fru y\u00f6neliyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" EUR\/USD 1,1511\u20131,1545 band\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131: K\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m ay\u0131n kalan y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc belirleyecek. 1,1546 \u00fczeri 1,1570 tepki; ana senaryo 1,1492 ve 1,1400 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f. Fed art\u0131r\u0131m olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %35, stop 1,1570 \u00fcst\u00fc.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49985,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52805","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t