Sterlin, Japon para biriminin Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoJ) eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faiz art\u0131rabilece\u011fi beklentisiyle g\u00fc\u00e7 kazand\u0131\u011f\u0131 ortamda, Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc Avrupa i\u015flemlerinde yen kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda geriledi. Reuters, \u00fc\u00e7 kayna\u011fa dayand\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 haberinde BoJ\u2019un eyl\u00fcl gibi erken bir tarihte harekete ge\u00e7ebilece\u011fini ve mevcut yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u0131lda iki kez s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma temposundan daha agresif bir patikaya y\u00f6nelebilece\u011fini belirtti. BoJ\u2019un temmuz ay\u0131 G\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fler \u00d6zeti (Summary of Opinions), politika faizini %1\u2019de sabit tutmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan kurul \u00fcyelerinin \u00e7o\u011funlu\u011funun daha yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir politika patikas\u0131n\u0131 destekledi\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi.<\/p>\n
Piyasalar ayr\u0131ca, temmuz sonundaki koordineli ad\u0131m\u0131n yeni destekledi\u011fi yenin ard\u0131ndan, a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 kur oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in ABD-Japonya olas\u0131 yeni ortak m\u00fcdahalelerine ili\u015fkin Japonya Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019ndan gelecek y\u00f6nlendirmeleri izliyor. Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019ta ise oda\u011f\u0131n, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoE) stratejisini de\u011ferlendirdi\u011fi bir d\u00f6nemde, gelecek hafta a\u00e7\u0131klanacak haziran d\u00f6nemi (\u00fc\u00e7 ayl\u0131k) istihdam verileri ile temmuz T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (T\u00dcFE) rakamlar\u0131na kaymas\u0131 bekleniyor. Mevcut fiyatlamalar, yak\u0131n vadede BoE\u2019den bir faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret etmiyor. Politika \u00e7er\u00e7evesi man\u015fet T\u00dcFE enflasyonunu yakla\u015f\u0131k %2\u2019de hedeflerken, enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n de\u011fi\u015fmedi\u011fi varsay\u0131m\u0131 alt\u0131nda Bank Rate\u2019in 2026 boyunca %3,75 seviyesine referans verildi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131na, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda GBP\/JPY paritesinde zay\u0131flama beklentisiyle bear put spread stratejileri kullanarak veya vadeli kontratlarda k\u0131sa pozisyon alarak konumlanmalar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f e\u011filimi, \u015fahin bir BoJ ile so\u011fuyan Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k ekonomisi aras\u0131ndaki artan politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131ndan besleniyor. Tarihsel olarak, bu iki merkez bankas\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki faiz fark\u0131 darald\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, bu \u00e7apraz paritede sert a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc d\u00fczeltmeler g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n \u015fu anda %1,0 olan politika faizinin eyl\u00fclde y\u00fckselmesi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 olduk\u00e7a y\u00fcksek; politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar ileride daha agresif art\u0131\u015flara da i\u015faret ediyor. Bu paritenin ne kadar h\u0131zl\u0131 d\u00fc\u015febilece\u011fine dair bir \u015fablon olarak, A\u011fustos 2024\u2019teki dramatik yen short-squeeze\u2019ine bak\u0131labilir: b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00e7apl\u0131 pozisyon \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmesi tetiklenmi\u015f ve GBP\/JPY yaln\u0131zca birka\u00e7 hafta i\u00e7inde %10\u2019un \u00fczerinde d\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeni desteklemek \u00fczere m\u00fcdahaleye haz\u0131r durmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesi dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 paradan uzak (out-of-the-money) GBP\/JPY put opsiyonlar\u0131 almak cazip bir risk-getiri profili sunuyor.<\/p>\n
Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k taraf\u0131nda, \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n Bank Rate\u2019i 2026\u2019n\u0131n geri kalan\u0131nda %3,75 seviyesinde sabit tutaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisiyle sterlin \u00fczerinde istikrarl\u0131 bir a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Son ekonomik veriler, Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019ta \u00fccret art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n so\u011fudu\u011funu ve i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131ndaki at\u0131l kapasitenin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor; bu da \u015fahin s\u00fcrpriz potansiyelini ciddi bi\u00e7imde s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor. Spot i\u015flemler yerine opsiyon stratejileri kullanarak, dura\u011fanla\u015fan Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcnden faydalan\u0131rken ani piyasa oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 azami riski tan\u0131mlamak m\u00fcmk\u00fcn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" BoJ\u2019un eyl\u00fclde faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 ve daha agresif s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma sinyalleriyle yen g\u00fc\u00e7leniyor; sterlin\/yen d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor. Politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 derinle\u015firken, GBP\/JPY\u2019de k\u0131sa vadede d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f i\u00e7in put spread ve k\u0131sa vadeli pozisyonlar \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50188,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52801","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t