Rupi, USD\/INR\u2019nin yatay seyretmesiyle ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda yakla\u015f\u0131k 95,40 seviyesinde fazla de\u011fi\u015fim g\u00f6stermeden a\u00e7\u0131ld\u0131; piyasalar, k\u00fcresel enerji arz\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k be\u015fte birinin ge\u00e7ti\u011fi H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131na ili\u015fkin y\u00f6n aray\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 izliyor. MCX\u2019te 19 A\u011fustos vadeli ham petrol kontrat\u0131, sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc 8.075 rupiyi g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra %0,85 d\u00fc\u015ferek yakla\u015f\u0131k 7.755 rupiye geriledi. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 ile Bab\u00fclmendep Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n birlikte k\u00fcresel enerji arz\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k %27\u2019sini olu\u015fturmas\u0131 nedeniyle, arz k\u0131s\u0131tlar\u0131 fiyatlar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan temel risk olmaya devam ederken; daha y\u00fcksek petrol fiyatlar\u0131 Hindistan\u2019\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi, kamu yat\u0131r\u0131m harcamalar\u0131 ve yak\u0131n vadeli enflasyon \u00fczerinde potansiyel bir bask\u0131 unsuru olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Standard Chartered, FY27\u2019de perakende akaryak\u0131t fiyatlar\u0131nda indirim beklentisini geri \u00e7ekerek Eyl\u00fcl 2026\u2019dan itibaren \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc litre ba\u015f\u0131na 2,5 INR\u2019lik indirimi projeksiyonlar\u0131ndan \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131; ham petrol\u00fcn 85\u201390 ABD dolar\u0131\/varil band\u0131nda kalmas\u0131 ve litre ba\u015f\u0131na 10 INR\u2019lik \u00d6TV indiriminin s\u00fcrmesi halinde Q1-FY27\u2019de GSYH\u2019nin yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,3\u2019\u00fc d\u00fczeyindeki kay\u0131plar\u0131n H1-FY27\u2019de %0,4\u20130,5\u2019e y\u00fckselebilece\u011fine i\u015faret etti. Dolar zay\u0131flad\u0131; DXY 99,89 civar\u0131nda seyrederken CME FedWatch, Fed\u2019in eyl\u00fclde faizi sabit tutma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %65 olarak fiyatlad\u0131 (bir ay \u00f6nce ayn\u0131 toplant\u0131ya kadar iki faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %75\u2019ti). Hindistan toptan e\u015fya enflasyonu temmuzda %9,78 ile %10,25\u2019lik beklentinin ve \u00f6nceki %9,87\u2019nin alt\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015firken, USD\/INR 95,42 civar\u0131nda kald\u0131; 95,36 destek, 96,00 ile 97,10 ise diren\u00e7 seviyeleri olarak izlendi.<\/p>\n
Ham petrol\u00fcn yakla\u015f\u0131k 7.755 rupiye geri \u00e7ekilmesiyle, 19 A\u011fustos kontrat vadesi \u00f6ncesinde t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir al\u0131m f\u0131rsat\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 ve Bab\u00fclmendep Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki devam eden aksamalar, k\u00fcresel enerji sevkiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n %27\u2019sini tehdit etmeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor; bu da tarihsel olarak ani bir fiyat s\u0131k\u0131\u015fmas\u0131na i\u015faret eder. Arz kaynakl\u0131 rallinin bir sonraki ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz aya\u011f\u0131na pozisyon almak i\u00e7in Eyl\u00fcl vadeli MCX ham petrol kontratlar\u0131nda al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
USD\/INR paritesi 95,40 \u00e7evresinde dar bir bantta s\u0131k\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015f durumda ve 95,36\u2019daki 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00fcstel hareketli ortalama \u00fczerinde hassas bi\u00e7imde tutunuyor. K\u0131sa vadeli volatilite daral\u0131rken G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi (RSI) 48 civar\u0131nda seyretti\u011finden, iron condor gibi bant i\u00e7i stratejilerin uygulanmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, piyasa net bir y\u00f6n kataliz\u00f6r\u00fc ararken zaman de\u011fer erimesi \u00fczerinden prim toplamaya imk\u00e2n tan\u0131r.<\/p>\n
95,36\u2019daki kritik destek seviyesinin a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 halinde, haziran dip seviyesi olan 94,15 hedefiyle derhal k\u0131sa USD\/INR pozisyonlar\u0131na ge\u00e7ilmesi gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f senaryosu, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n faiz beklentilerini a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekmesiyle kritik 100 seviyesinin alt\u0131na inerek 99,89\u2019a gerileyen ABD Dolar Endeksi\u2019ndeki zay\u0131flamayla da destekleniyor. Ancak jeopolitik gerilimlerin t\u0131rmanmas\u0131 durumunda, 96,00\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerine h\u0131zl\u0131 bir s\u0131\u00e7rama ve tarih\u00ee zirve olan 97,10\u2019a do\u011fru bir hareket bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca Hindistan\u2019\u0131n mali g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fcn yak\u0131ndan izlenmesi gerekiyor; zira toptan enflasyon %9,78 gibi y\u00fcksek bir d\u00fczeyde ve petrol pazarlama kaynakl\u0131 zararlar\u0131n GSYH\u2019nin %0,5\u2019ine kadar \u00e7\u0131kma riski bulunuyor. Ge\u00e7mi\u015f piyasa d\u00f6ng\u00fcleri, enerji ithalat faturas\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n genel olarak zay\u0131f oldu\u011fu d\u00f6nemlerde dahi Hint rupisini h\u0131zla zay\u0131flatt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bu riski y\u00f6netmek i\u00e7in, ani enerji fiyat \u015foklar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetli bir sigorta olarak kullan\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 (out-of-the-money) USD\/INR al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n elde tutulmas\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Rupi 95,40\u2019ta yatay; g\u00f6zler H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\/Bab\u00fclmendep riskinde. Ham petrol 7.755\u2019e gerilerken arz \u015foku tehlikesi s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Standard Chartered indirim beklentisini \u00e7ekti. Dolar zay\u0131f; USD\/INR 95,36 destek. Opsiyon stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50171,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52796","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t